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August 5, 2026

The global forest industry is entering a new market reality in H2/2026

The global forest industry is entering a new market reality in H2/2026

The global forest-products industry ended the first half of 2026 with lower international trade volumes, restrained construction demand and widening differences between regional production costs. Lumber prices were comparatively stable in several major markets, but this stability concealed a more difficult commercial environment in which buyers purchased only against confirmed requirements, mills faced elevated raw-material costs and exporters struggled to maintain margins.

The clearest global trend was not a uniform collapse in prices, but a contraction in traded volumes. Softwood lumber imports by several of the world’s largest consuming markets declined sharply during the opening months of the year, with the United States, China and Germany accounting for much of the reduction. Across the ten largest importing countries, first-quarter softwood lumber imports fell by approximately 3.9 million m³ year on year to 12.6 million m³.

International suppliers responded by reducing production, extending maintenance shutdowns or redirecting volumes towards alternative markets. However, the ability to shift supply remained limited because weakness was visible across several destinations at the same time. China purchased less imported lumber, European construction remained subdued, US housing demand was constrained by financing costs, and buyers in the Middle East and North Africa became more cautious as freight and insurance expenses increased.

The result was a market in which regional supply conditions mattered more than headline selling prices. Producers with access to relatively inexpensive logs, flexible transport routes or stronger domestic outlets were better positioned than mills dependent on expensive imported fibre or distant export markets. The regional divisions that emerged during the first half are likely to remain the defining feature of the forest industry during the remainder of 2026.

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