Russia is considering export quotas for logs currently covered by restrictions, prompting warnings that Chinese mills could replace Russian softwood lumber with products manufactured from Russian sawlogs. The proposal would widen an existing trade rather than restart log exports from zero.<\/p>\n
Russia continues to export some logs to China. The restrictions introduced in January 2022 did not cover every species and customs category. They were directed primarily at unprocessed and roughly processed softwood logs and logs from valuable hardwood species, including oak, beech and ash.<\/p>\n
Logs outside the restricted categories can still be exported. This explains why Chinese customs continued to record imports of Russian roundwood in 2026. China received approximately 30,000 m\u00b3 of Russian logs in July, although the volume was almost 52% lower than a year earlier.<\/p>\n
The policy now under discussion would have a greater effect on the sawmill sector. Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev said in June that the government would consider quotas allowing companies with substantial domestic processing operations to export part of the logs currently subject to restrictions.<\/p>\n
The existing rules would not be removed completely. Selected companies could receive permission to export limited volumes of softwood or valuable hardwood logs while continuing to operate sawmills and other processing facilities in Russia.<\/p>\n
Russian sawmills oppose the proposal<\/strong><\/p>\n Alexander Diatlov, chairman of the forestry committee in the Arkhangelsk regional parliament, warned that additional log exports to China could weaken Russia\u2019s softwood lumber business.<\/p>\n The concern is not the small volume of logs that continues to move under categories outside the restrictions. New quotas could give Chinese sawmills access to commercially important Russian softwood sawlogs.<\/p>\n China currently buys Russian softwood lumber after the logs have been sawn and processed in Russia. If Chinese mills can buy the same sawlogs, they can process them domestically and reduce their purchases of Russian softwood lumber.<\/p>\n Russian companies would then sell a lower-value raw material while Chinese mills retained the margins from sawing, drying, planing and further manufacturing. Diatlov said the competition could eventually lead to the closure of some Russian sawmills.<\/p>\n Arkhangelsk Governor Alexander Tsybulsky has also opposed renewed exports of restricted logs. He said the measure would penalise companies that invested in domestic processing on the assumption that Russian forest policy would continue to favour manufactured products.<\/p>\n More than RUB200 billion has been invested in deeper wood processing in the Arkhangelsk region during the past two decades. The investments include five modern wood-processing plants and six pellet factories.<\/p>\n The 2022 restrictions changed Russia\u2019s trade with China<\/strong><\/p>\n Before the restrictions, China was a major buyer of Russian softwood logs. Russian policy had already been moving against roundwood exports through higher duties, but the measures introduced in 2022 removed most softwood and valuable hardwood logs from regular export trade.<\/p>\n The objective was to keep sawlogs inside Russia and encourage companies to produce softwood lumber, plywood, pellets and other higher-value products domestically. The government expected the availability of raw material to support investment and increase processing.<\/p>\n Trutnev has now acknowledged that the restrictions did not produce the expected increase in processing, particularly in the Russian Far East. The government is examining whether processors should be allowed to export part of their log supply to improve cash flow.<\/p>\n Under the proposed system, a company would need to operate domestic processing capacity before receiving permission to sell logs abroad. The condition would not prevent exported logs from competing directly with Russian softwood lumber in China.<\/p>\n Russia holds 42% of China\u2019s imported-lumber market<\/strong><\/p>\n Russia remains China\u2019s largest foreign supplier of lumber. According to Pavel Popov, head of timber and construction-material market analysis at the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, Russian companies supplied more than 4.4 million m\u00b3 to China during the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n These shipments gave Russia approximately 42% of China\u2019s imported-lumber market. China accounted for almost 60% of total Russian lumber exports, making it the main foreign market for many Russian sawmills.<\/p>\n That dependence has increased since Russian producers lost access to much of the European market. Supplying Chinese mills with Russian softwood sawlogs could allow them to replace part of the softwood lumber currently imported from Russia.<\/p>\n China\u2019s total lumber imports fell by 11% to 10.6 million m\u00b3 during the first half of 2026, according to figures published by the St. Petersburg exchange. Chinese log imports from all origins declined by 5.5% to 15.8 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n Russian lumber exports to all markets fell by 18.5% to 9.7 million m\u00b3 during the same period, according to Rosleskhoz. Russia retained its leading position in China, but the market for imported lumber was contracting.<\/p>\n Russian softwood lumber prices increased in July<\/strong><\/p>\n China imported approximately 1.03 million m\u00b3 of logs and lumber from Russia in July, according to Chinese customs figures compiled by Timber Home. The combined volume was 7.6% lower than a year earlier, while the average import price increased by 14.4%.<\/p>\n Lumber accounted for slightly more than 1 million m\u00b3, down 5% year on year. Its average price increased by 13.1%. Logs represented only around 30,000 m\u00b3, confirming that Russian trade with China is now dominated by processed timber rather than roundwood.<\/p>\n Russian softwood lumber shipments reached approximately 888,000 m\u00b3 in July. Fir and spruce lumber imports fell by 10.3% to around 400,000 m\u00b3, while the average price increased by 12.8%. Other coniferous lumber declined by 19.6%, with prices rising by 14.1%.<\/p>\n Chinese imports of red pine and Scots pine lumber from Russia increased by 2.6%, accompanied by a 15.5% rise in the average price. Other pine lumber recorded a 53.2% increase in volume and a 14.1% price gain.<\/p>\n Higher prices provided some relief, but the stronger rouble reduced export earnings when converted into the Russian currency. Rising rail and container costs placed further pressure on sawmill margins.<\/p>\n Log quotas could change the product mix<\/strong><\/p>\n For a Russian company with more timber than it can process or sell profitably, a log export quota would provide immediate revenue. The option would be particularly attractive in the Russian Far East, where proximity to China reduces transport costs.<\/p>\n Chinese buyers would gain access to Russian sawlogs and could process them in mills located closer to Chinese customers. Russian sawmills would then compete against products manufactured from their own country\u2019s raw material.<\/p>\n Lower sawmill utilisation would also reduce the production of sawdust, bark and wood chips used by pellet plants, panel factories and energy facilities. Integrated processing sites could lose both softwood lumber output and part of the residue stream supporting their other operations.<\/p>\n Arkhangelsk is seeking improved transport support and a three-year moratorium on company bankruptcies instead of wider log exports. Diatlov said current transport subsidies have lost much of their effect because freight costs have increased sharply.<\/p>\n He also identified the strong rouble as a central problem. Russia\u2019s domestic market cannot absorb all the softwood lumber available for export, while there is little expectation of a sharp recovery in foreign demand or prices. A weaker rouble would increase the domestic value of export revenue without supplying Chinese competitors with Russian sawlogs.<\/p>\n Russia could seek Chinese concessions in return for log access. One possibility under discussion is permission to export Russian wood pellets to China. Chinese rules currently restrict these imports because pellets are treated as an industrial residue. Access to the Chinese market would help Russian pellet plants that lost European customers, but it would not prevent Chinese mills from competing with Russian softwood lumber producers.<\/p>\n Russia already exports small volumes of logs that fall outside the restrictions. The government is now considering quotas covering commercially important softwood and valuable hardwood logs. Allowing these sawlogs to reach Chinese mills could reduce China\u2019s demand for Russian softwood lumber and place additional pressure on domestic processing capacity.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Russia is considering export quotas for logs currently covered by restrictions, prompting warnings that Chinese mills could replace Russian softwood lumber with products manufactured from Russian sawlogs. The proposal would widen an existing trade rather than restart log exports from … Continue reading