{"id":99951,"date":"2026-09-16T06:02:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:02:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=99951"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:29:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T17:29:45","slug":"gwmi-forecast-swedish-sawmills-face-a-difficult-winter-despite-falling-log-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-forecast-swedish-sawmills-face-a-difficult-winter-despite-falling-log-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"GWMI Forecast: Swedish sawmills face a difficult winter despite falling log prices"},"content":{"rendered":"
Sweden\u2019s sawmill sector is likely to spend the remainder of 2026 reducing output, absorbing storm-damaged pine and waiting for lower sawlog costs to reach mill accounts. Global Wood Markets Info (GWMI) expects no general recovery in lumber margins before the end of the year. Pine sawlog prices should remain under greater pressure than spruce, while the apparent abundance of timber in central Sweden will increasingly diverge from a tightening supply outlook in the south.<\/p>\n

The Swedish timber market has moved rapidly away from the record conditions of 2025, but it has not returned to a normal cycle. Sawlog prices are falling, sawmills are closing capacity and several producers reported better sequential results in the second quarter. None of those developments amounts to a genuine recovery. Raw material remains historically expensive, finished softwood lumber prices have risen only modestly and the supply relief created by Storm Johannes is both geographically concentrated and temporary.<\/p>\n

For the remaining months of 2026, the central question is not whether sawlog prices will continue to ease. They almost certainly will in parts of the country. The more difficult question is whether the reduction will be large and fast enough to restore an acceptable conversion margin before storm timber is exhausted and the normal harvesting pipeline becomes restrictive again. GWMI\u2019s assessment is that it will not. Sawmill economics should improve gradually during the fourth quarter, but the sector is likely to enter 2027 with lower production capacity, still-poor returns and renewed concern about fresh log supply, particularly in G\u00f6taland.<\/p>\n

The timber peak has broken, but mills are still processing an expensive legacy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Official prices already showed a substantial correction before the September reductions announced by large buyers. The average harvesting-assignment price for pine sawlogs fell to SEK 855\/m\u00b3fub (\u20ac77\/m\u00b3) in the second quarter, down 12% from the first quarter and 17% from a year earlier. Spruce declined to SEK 1,059\/m\u00b3fub (\u20ac96\/m\u00b3), down 9% quarter on quarter and 14% year on year. Across all sawlog assortments, the national average fell 11% in one quarter.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The decline continued after June. Mellanskog reduced the basic price for standard spruce sawlogs by SEK 50\/m\u00b3fub (\u20ac4.55\/m\u00b3) from September 1 in several central regions, following cuts of SEK 30-150\/m\u00b3fub (\u20ac2.70-13.65\/m\u00b3) in April. Sveaskog lowered northern pine sawlogs by SEK 50\/m\u00b3fub and spruce by SEK 25\/m\u00b3fub. S\u00f6dra also moved away from the high procurement prices and premiums paid during the most intense phase of the raw-material competition, although regional lists and temporary premiums prevent a single national figure from describing the adjustment.<\/p>\n

The effect of these reductions on profitability is however delayed. Logs purchased under earlier contracts, standing timber already secured at high prices and inventories accumulated during the peak continue to pass through production. The accounting benefit from lower procurement prices therefore appears later than the market announcement itself. Mills that entered the summer with expensive inventories may not receive the full margin benefit until late in the fourth quarter or the beginning of 2027.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the decline should not be confused with cheap timber. For several assortments, current prices remain around twice the level recorded in 2019. Sweden has moved away from the 2025 peak, not back to the pre-2021 cost base. This distinction is central to the outlook: a further decline in sawlog prices can improve mill results without making Swedish raw material inexpensive by historical standards.<\/p>\n

Q2 stopped the deterioration, but did not restore profitability<\/strong><\/p>\n

The second-quarter company figures show a modest sequential improvement and a severe annual deterioration. SCA Wood\u2019s EBITDA margin rose from 3.8% in the first quarter to 5.8% in Q2, but remained far below the 17.9% achieved a year earlier. Setra moved from a 4.5% EBITDA loss to a 4.3% margin. Vida improved from -2.4% to 3.6%, while Holmen remained slightly negative at -0.3%. S\u00f6dra Wood was the weakest of the group: its EBITDA margin improved from -16.9% to -8.6%, but its operating result deteriorated sharply as lower delivery volumes, weaker selling prices and high raw-material costs continued to weigh on the business.<\/p>\n

The pattern is more important than any single company result. Producers that began to receive relief from lower log costs reduced their losses or returned to positive territory. Finished softwood lumber prices also increased sequentially by an estimated 2-5%, depending on producer and product mix, but the price movement was not strong enough to drive the improvement on its own. The cost side did most of the work.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Holmen provides a clear example. Its Wood Products business delivered 345,000 m\u00b3 in Q2, 5.8% more than a year earlier, yet generated an operating loss of approximately \u20ac5 million. A year earlier, deliveries of 326,000 m\u00b3 produced an operating profit of around \u20ac1.8 million. Higher throughput did not compensate for the compression in the value obtained from each cubic metre. Based on segment sales and deliveries, revenue declined from roughly \u20ac304\/m\u00b3 in Q2 2025 to \u20ac285\/m\u00b3 in Q2 2026, although product mix, currencies and by-product revenue prevent this from being read as a direct lumber price comparison.<\/p>\n

GWMI expects third-quarter results to remain weak. Lower procurement prices should begin to help, but the benefit will be partly offset by summer maintenance, reduced production rates, currency pressure and the lower value of sawmill by-products. Q4 should be better than Q3 for mills with a high share of newly purchased logs, yet a sector-wide return to the margins achieved in 2025 is not plausible before year-end.<\/p>\n

The largest producers are concentrating timber at fewer mills<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s five largest softwood lumber groups control more than half of national production. Vida is the largest, with annual sawmilling capacity of approximately 3.3 million m\u00b3, followed by SCA Wood at around 2.2 million m\u00b3, S\u00f6dra Wood at 2.1 million m\u00b3, Setra at 1.6 million m\u00b3 and Holmen at 1.5 million m\u00b3. These figures refer to company-reported production or capacity and are not perfectly comparable, but they show how far the industry has already consolidated.<\/p>\n

Since 2000, the number of Swedish softwood sawmills has fallen from approximately 300 to around 130, while the average mill has nearly tripled in size. The next phase of consolidation is being driven by two connected constraints: weak conversion margins and insufficient regional log availability. The first can improve when the lumber cycle turns; the second may be structural.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Vida\u2019s closures at Urshult and Orrefors removed a combined 265,000 m\u00b3 of annual lumber capacity. The company has made clear that it does not intend to replace that output by increasing production elsewhere. Its immediate objective is to secure sufficient timber for the 13 sawmills that remain and operate those plants at high utilisation. Moelven\u2019s planned closure of \u00c5rj\u00e4ng will remove a further 110,000 m\u00b3 of annual pine lumber capacity. Holmen is reducing production at Linghem by 64%, while Bergkvist Siljan closed its Mora sawmill in March after more than 130 years of operation.<\/p>\n

The confirmed annual capacities at Vida and Moelven alone amount to 375,000 m\u00b3. The total adjustment is larger once the Linghem reduction, the Mora closure and lower operating rates at other mills are included. Sweden\u2019s national production was already down around 7% earlier in 2026. If that rate were sustained for the full year, output would fall from approximately 18 million m\u00b3 to around 16.7 million m\u00b3, well below the roughly 18.5 million m\u00b3 associated with a normal production year.<\/p>\n

The closure motives are revealing. Vida described a long-term imbalance between production capacity and available timber in southern Sweden. Moelven is redirecting sawlogs towards larger, modernised facilities where scanning, sorting, line speed, lumber recovery and energy performance can extract more value from each log. These are not temporary stoppages designed only to manage a few weak quarters. They move raw material from smaller or less competitive plants into a narrower industrial network.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Storm Johannes has created a temporary and highly regional surplus<\/strong><\/p>\n

National inventory figures can give the impression that Swedish sawmills have moved from shortage to abundance. Softwood sawlog stocks stood at 3.5 million m\u00b3fub at the end of June, 23% below the first quarter but still substantially above the five-year Q2 average of 2.6 million m\u00b3fub. The geographic distribution is more informative than the national total.<\/p>\n

In timber balance region 2, the main area affected by Storm Johannes, Q2 sawlog stocks were 76% above the 2022-2026 Q2 average and 159% above Q2 2025. Region 1 was 28% above its five-year seasonal average, region 3 was 8% above it and region 4 was 7% below it. Sweden therefore does not have one uniform sawlog market. Central regions are still processing a large storm-related inflow, while parts of southern Sweden remain structurally tight.<\/p>\n

The storm mix also matters. Salvage operations have yielded more large-diameter pine and less pulpwood than initially expected. Pine sawmills and buyers therefore face greater short-term availability, while fresh spruce remains comparatively scarce. This helps explain the 17% annual fall in the national pine sawlog price compared with 14% for spruce and supports a wider spruce premium during the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Quality deterioration will become more visible as autumn progresses. Blue stain in pine is likely to increase, forcing mills to separate logs by condition and end use. Some stained timber can be processed into lumber for markets where visual specifications allow it, including certain US applications. Material falling below sawlog specifications will be downgraded. The result will be an expanding gap between the price of good fresh pine and discounted storm wood, even when national averages continue to decline.<\/p>\n

The southern harvesting pipeline is the main risk for early 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n

Storm salvage has reduced the immediate need for mills to compete aggressively for new harvesting contracts. It has not generated a durable supply response from private forest owners. Harvesting notifications in G\u00f6taland fell 44% during January-June compared with the same period of 2025. Northern Norrland declined 13%, while southern Norrland rose 17% and Svealand increased 3%, partly because of storm-related activity.<\/p>\n

The G\u00f6taland figure is the most consequential for the sawmill sector. Southern Sweden has a dense concentration of processing capacity and already operates with a tighter timber balance. Vida estimates that the formal resource assessment points to a deficit of around 2.5 million m\u00b3sk in G\u00f6taland, but considers the effective deficit larger at the present harvesting rate. Closing Urshult and Orrefors reduced its own annual timber requirement by approximately 400,000 m\u00b3fub, yet management still expects further adjustments may be necessary in the region.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

High prices have not solved the supply problem. Between 2020 and 2025, the price of sawlogs in G\u00f6taland more than doubled, while notified harvesting area did not increase in parallel. This weak relationship limits the ability of sawmills to secure substantially more wood simply by increasing their bid. Many forest owners have strong balance sheets after several exceptional years and can postpone harvesting when prices begin to decline. Others are constrained by ownership objectives, age-class distribution, environmental restrictions or contractor availability rather than by the current price alone.<\/p>\n

Storm salvage is expected to continue through most of the autumn and could remain significant until Christmas. Once these volumes diminish, mills will need a larger contribution from normal harvesting. The contracted standing inventory is already being consumed faster than it is replenished at some producers. This is why a well-supplied autumn and a tight first half of 2027 can both be true.<\/p>\n

GWMI price forecast for September-December 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

GWMI expects the national Q4 average for spruce sawlogs under harvesting assignments to settle in a range of SEK 970-1,030\/m\u00b3fub (\u20ac88-94\/m\u00b3), compared with SEK 1,059\/m\u00b3fub in Q2. Pine is expected to average SEK 740-820\/m\u00b3fub (\u20ac67-75\/m\u00b3), compared with SEK 855\/m\u00b3fub in Q2. These ranges are estimates, not published price lists, and regional outcomes may differ considerably.<\/p>\n

Pine carries the greater downside risk because storm volumes remain tall-heavy, quality discounts are likely to widen and several buyers already have sufficient stock. In central storm-affected areas, individual transactions may fall below the forecast band where blue stain, storage time or transport constraints reduce recoverable value. Spruce should remain firmer, particularly in southern procurement zones where mills continue to compete for suitable fresh logs and S\u00f6dra\u2019s market premium has effectively protected part of the assortment from the full basic-price reduction.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

A general price increase before December is unlikely in the base case. Sawmills need a lower raw-material cost and lack the finished-product margin required to initiate another bidding round. Even if owners remain reluctant to sell, buyers can use contracted standing timber, storm inventories, geographic redistribution and selective production reductions to avoid immediately raising prices.<\/p>\n

The risk changes around the turn of the year. If Johannes salvage is largely complete, harvesting notifications remain depressed and winter weather restricts access, the supply of fresh sawlogs could tighten quickly. A shortage would not automatically produce a new rally. Mills operating at negative or low single-digit margins may choose to reduce shifts, extend maintenance or close additional capacity instead of paying prices that finished lumber cannot support.<\/p>\n

Lumber prices should improve only modestly<\/strong><\/p>\n

Swedish producers continue to benefit from access to the UK, continental Europe, North Africa, the US and other export markets. This flexibility is an advantage over production systems tied primarily to one standard and one end market. It does not remove the demand constraint. European softwood lumber consumption is estimated to have fallen by around 20%, or approximately 14 million m\u00b3, from its 2021 peak. Construction remains weak across several core markets, and buyers continue to keep inventories controlled.<\/p>\n

GWMI expects Swedish lumber selling prices to be stable to moderately higher during the remainder of 2026, with an average improvement of roughly 2-4% from Q2 levels for standard assortments in the base case. The increase should be more visible in products and dimensions where stocks are low than in commodity pine grades exposed to the storm-timber flow. A stronger rise would require either a faster recovery in European construction or deeper production cuts across the Nordic and Central European industry.<\/p>\n

The removal of Swedish capacity supports the market, but not immediately. Mills generally consume logs already purchased, fulfil contracts and clear finished stocks before the full effect of a closure appears in supply. There is also no guarantee that every lost cubic metre in Sweden disappears from the European balance; larger Swedish mills, Finnish producers or Central European competitors can capture part of the volume. The more durable effect is the concentration of production at plants with better log access, automation, recovery rates and logistics.<\/p>\n

Base case, upside and downside<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Scenario<\/th>\nProbability<\/th>\nSawlogs<\/th>\nSawmills<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Base case<\/strong><\/td>\n60%<\/td>\nPine falls further; spruce declines more slowly; no general Q4 rebound.<\/td>\nProduction remains 6-8% below 2025; margins improve gradually but remain weak.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Upside for mills<\/strong><\/td>\n20%<\/td>\nStorm supply lasts longer and procurement prices decline faster.<\/td>\nLumber prices hold; Q4 EBITDA margins recover more clearly.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Downside for mills<\/strong><\/td>\n20%<\/td>\nFresh-log shortage appears early while forest owners continue to wait.<\/td>\nMore shift reductions or closures; weak lumber demand prevents mills from bidding up logs.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Forecast: a better fourth quarter, but no clean turn in the cycle<\/strong><\/p>\n

Swedish sawmills should be in a slightly better financial position in December than they were in June. Log prices are moving in the right direction for processors, some finished-product prices have edged higher and permanent capacity removal is reducing the pressure to run every plant for volume. The improvement will remain uneven. Pine-focused mills in storm regions have access to cheaper raw material but also face quality and product-price pressure. Spruce mills may obtain better lumber values but continue to pay more for suitable fresh logs.<\/p>\n

The market is therefore moving through two adjustments at once. The cyclical correction is lowering log prices and production after the 2024-2025 surge. The structural correction is closing mills in regions where installed capacity can no longer be supplied economically. The first offers short-term margin relief. The second determines which companies will be able to expand when construction demand eventually improves.<\/p>\n

GWMI expects no large wave of new closures before the end of December, but additional production reductions are likely. Companies will prioritise cash, lower inventories and full utilisation at their strongest plants. Further permanent decisions are more likely to be prepared during the autumn and announced when the industry has better visibility on the first-half 2027 log balance.<\/p>\n

For forest owners, the remaining months of 2026 still offer historically high prices despite the correction. For sawmills, the same prices remain difficult. That gap will narrow, but it will not disappear this year. Sweden is likely to enter 2027 with a smaller sawmill network, a much weaker pine market than at the 2025 peak and a renewed contest for fresh spruce and southern logs once the temporary protection provided by storm timber is gone.<\/p>\n<\/article>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sweden\u2019s sawmill sector is likely to spend the remainder of 2026 reducing output, absorbing storm-damaged pine and waiting for lower sawlog costs to reach mill accounts. Global Wood Markets Info (GWMI) expects no general recovery in lumber margins before the … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99952,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGWMI Forecast: Swedish sawmills face a difficult winter despite falling log prices - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-forecast-swedish-sawmills-face-a-difficult-winter-despite-falling-log-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GWMI Forecast: Swedish sawmills face a difficult winter despite falling log prices - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sweden\u2019s sawmill sector is likely to spend the remainder of 2026 reducing output, absorbing storm-damaged pine and waiting for lower sawlog costs to reach mill accounts. 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