US lumber futures fell to a nine-month low as a new round of tariffs between Washington and Ottawa threatened to raise building costs at a time when American housing demand is already weak.<\/p>\n
The most-active contract dropped below $555 per thousand board feet on September 8, extending a decline from more than $650 in July. Futures recovered to around $579 by September 10 but remained about 12% below the summer peak.<\/p>\n
The fall followed the introduction of Canadian counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on US plywood. Ottawa imposed the measures in response to new US duties on Canadian wood products, reopening one of the longest-running trade disputes between the two countries.<\/p>\n
Rather than lifting futures, the tariffs initially reinforced expectations of weaker demand. Builders and distributors now face higher replacement costs, while mortgage rates are already limiting home sales and new construction. Spending on single-family construction, the largest residential outlet for lumber, fell 3.2% in July.<\/p>\n
The result is an unusual split in the market. Tariffs have pushed some physical selling prices higher, but futures have fallen because traders expect buyers to cut purchases. Lumber yards are keeping inventories low, while builders are buying closer to immediate requirements.<\/p>\n
Canada supplies most US softwood lumber imports, making it difficult for American buyers to replace Canadian volumes quickly. At the same time, Canadian production capacity has declined after years of sawmill closures in British Columbia, where companies face high sawlog costs and reduced timber availability.<\/p>\n
US sawmills have their own margin problem. Domestic production has expanded in the South, but weak lumber prices have forced several companies to curtail output or close plants. Tariffs may offer protection from Canadian competition, but they provide limited help when housing construction is not generating enough demand.<\/p>\n
The market now sits between expensive supply and reluctant buyers. Canadian lumber entering the US carries a heavier tariff burden, yet American mills lack the pricing power to pass through the full increase. The drop below $555 showed which force traders considered stronger: for now, weak housing demand outweighs the risk of tighter supply.<\/p>\n
The recovery toward $579 indicates that the market is not pricing in a complete collapse. North American sawmill capacity is already being removed, and any improvement in housing starts could expose supply constraints quickly. Until then, lumber futures are likely to remain driven by mortgage rates and construction activity rather than tariffs alone.<\/p>\n
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