{"id":99780,"date":"2026-09-01T08:19:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T08:19:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=99780"},"modified":"2026-09-01T16:09:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T16:09:56","slug":"german-sawmill-industry-what-to-expect-for-the-remainder-of-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/german-sawmill-industry-what-to-expect-for-the-remainder-of-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"German sawmill industry: What to expect for the remainder of 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Germany's softwood sawmill industry is heading into the final four months of 2026 with production already at its lowest level in more than a decade and another sizeable contraction expected this year.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest industry forecast points to German softwood lumber production falling to around 18.49 million m\u00b3 in 2026<\/strong>, down 9.2% from 2025. If confirmed, production will have declined by almost 6.85 million m\u00b3 from the 2021 peak<\/strong>, equivalent to a reduction of 27% in only five years.<\/p>\n

The decline has accelerated rather than stopped. Production fell from 25.34 million m\u00b3 in 2021 to 24.31 million m\u00b3 in 2022, 22.89 million m\u00b3 in 2023, 22.37 million m\u00b3 in 2024 and approximately 20.36 million m\u00b3 last year.<\/p>\n

Current industry expectations point to another 9\u201310% contraction in construction lumber production in 2026. German mills have responded with reduced shifts, short-time working, longer maintenance periods and production increasingly tied to confirmed orders.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
GWMI DATA<\/div>\n
German softwood lumber production<\/div>\n
Million m\u00b3 \u00b7 2010\u20132026F<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
25.34<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
20.36<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
18.49F<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n26F<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
Source: Destatis, DeSH \u00b7 2026 forecast \u00b7 GWMI calculations<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Production has fallen back below the levels of the early 2010s<\/h2>\n

Germany's current production trajectory is unusual because the industry had already gone through a substantial adjustment before 2026.<\/p>\n

Softwood lumber output remained around 20\u201321 million m\u00b3 for much of 2010\u20132016 before increasing steadily from 2017. Production climbed to 23.30 million m\u00b3 in 2019 and then accelerated sharply during the exceptional timber markets of 2020 and 2021.<\/p>\n

The peak came in 2021 at 25.34 million m\u00b3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Four consecutive declines followed. By 2025, production had fallen to approximately 20.36 million m\u00b3<\/strong>, almost 5 million m\u00b3 below the peak. The 2026 forecast would take production another 1.87 million m\u00b3 lower.<\/p>\n

At 18.49 million m\u00b3, German softwood lumber output would be 27.0% below 2021<\/strong>, 17.4% below 2024 and below the production volumes recorded during most of the early 2010s.<\/p>\n

More than 11 million m\u00b3 has disappeared from annual sawlog intake<\/h2>\n

The contraction is equally pronounced on the raw material side.<\/p>\n

Softwood sawlog cutting by German mills stood at around 41.81 million m\u00b3 in 2021<\/strong>. It fell to 40.12 million m\u00b3 in 2022, 37.77 million m\u00b3 in 2023 and 36.91 million m\u00b3 in 2024.<\/p>\n

The estimate for 2025 is around 33.60 million m\u00b3<\/strong>, while the 2026 forecast drops further to 30.51 million m\u00b3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
GWMI DATA<\/div>\n
German softwood sawlog cutting<\/div>\n
Million m\u00b3 \u00b7 2021\u20132026F<\/div>\n
\n
202141.81m<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
202240.12m<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
202337.77m<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
202436.91m<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
202533.60m<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
2026F<\/strong>30.51m<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
2021\u20132026F: -11.30 million m\u00b3<\/div>\n
Source: Destatis, DeSH \u00b7 GWMI calculations<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

If the current forecast is reached, German sawmills will process approximately 11.3 million m\u00b3 less softwood sawlogs than in 2021<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The scale of the reduction has not produced an equivalent collapse in sawlog prices. German mills are processing roughly one-quarter less softwood than five years ago, but the supply environment has also changed sharply.<\/p>\n

The supply side has changed since the beetle years<\/h2>\n

Germany harvested 57.3 million m\u00b3 of roundwood in 2025<\/strong>, 6.4% less than in the previous year.<\/p>\n

The composition of the harvest changed much more sharply. Damaged timber harvesting dropped 53.7% to 12.7 million m\u00b3<\/strong>, while harvesting in the spruce, fir, Douglas fir and other softwood group fell 14.3% to 32.35 million m\u00b3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The current supply situation bears little resemblance to the peak bark beetle years. Large volumes of beetle- and drought-damaged spruce previously entered the market, giving sawmills access to unusually abundant raw material and putting significant pressure on roundwood prices.<\/p>\n

By 2025 that exceptional supply had largely disappeared. Even as lumber production and sawlog intake declined, forest owners were under considerably less pressure to move distressed timber.<\/p>\n

Roundwood availability improved during the second quarter of 2026 as higher prices encouraged additional harvesting and mills rebuilt inventories. Roadside stocks increased in several regions, while some sawmills entered summer with relatively full log yards.<\/p>\n

By late August, forest owner organisations in Bavaria were explicitly reporting well-filled mill inventories and slower collection of delivered wood. In G\u00fcnzburg-Krumbach, the benchmark price for fresh spruce 2b BC had moved down to \u20ac116\/fm, while other southern German associations continued to report \u20ac118\u2013125\/fm contracts valid into September.<\/p>\n

The change has stopped the aggressive upward price cycle seen during late 2025 and early 2026, but it has produced a correction rather than a collapse.<\/p>\n

Spruce prices have corrected, but remain expensive<\/h2>\n

Spruce sawlog prices moved rapidly higher during late 2025 and early 2026. B\/C quality logs in southern Germany traded well above \u20ac120\/m\u00b3 during the strongest period, with tighter regional contracts reaching around \u20ac130\/m\u00b3 and above.<\/p>\n

By the second quarter, mills had begun pushing considerably harder for lower prices. Q3 contracts increasingly settled around the low-to-mid \u20ac120s.<\/p>\n

By August, regional market reports showed fresh spruce 2b+ B\/BC prices ranging from approximately \u20ac116 to \u20ac125\/fm<\/strong>. Friedberg reported \u20ac118\/fm through September, Altmannstein and Landshut around \u20ac125\/fm, and Eslarn-Vohenstrau\u00df around \u20ac123\u2013125\/fm.<\/p>\n

Pine was clearly weaker. Regional prices for 2b+ B\/C were generally around \u20ac84\u201390\/fm<\/strong>, with some associations describing pine demand as very limited.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
GWMI MARKET DATA<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Germany \u00b7 August 2026<\/th>\nIndicative price<\/th>\nCurrent direction<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Spruce 2b+ B\/BC<\/td>\n\u20ac116\u2013125\/fm<\/td>\nSlightly lower<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beetle \/ lower-quality spruce<\/td>\n\u20ac94\u2013105\/fm<\/td>\nStable to softer<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pine 2b+ B\/C<\/td>\n\u20ac84\u201390\/fm<\/td>\nWeak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pine D<\/td>\naround \u20ac70\/fm<\/td>\nStable<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
Source: regional German forest owner associations \u00b7 GWMI market assessment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

GWMI Q4 log price forecast<\/h2>\n

The balance entering September has shifted in favour of sawmills compared with the first quarter. Mill inventories are fuller, log collection has slowed in several regions and production plans remain conservative.<\/p>\n

At the same time, there is no evidence of a large nationwide build-up of bark beetle timber or other distressed spruce capable of forcing prices sharply lower. Fresh spruce supply therefore remains more disciplined than during the major calamity years.<\/p>\n

GWMI's base case for the fourth quarter is consequently a further moderate correction rather than a price break.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
GWMI Q4 2026 FORECAST<\/div>\n
German softwood sawlog prices<\/div>\n
\n
Spruce 2b+ B\/BC<\/strong>
\n\u20ac115\u2013122\/fm<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Base case: modest downside from current Q3 contracts<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Pine 2b+ B\/C<\/strong>
\n\u20ac82\u201388\/fm<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Weak demand leaves more downside risk than for spruce<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Downside scenario:<\/strong> larger autumn harvesting volumes or a late increase in damaged timber could push spruce towards \u20ac110\u2013115\/fm.<\/p>\n

Upside scenario:<\/strong> limited harvesting and low beetle volumes combined with stronger mill restocking could keep spruce around \u20ac122\u2013125\/fm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

GWMI forecast based on August regional contracts, mill inventory conditions and current production expectations. Forecast, not reported transaction data.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The forecast therefore leaves spruce prices well below the strongest levels seen earlier in the year but still historically expensive for a sawmill sector running at reduced utilisation.<\/p>\n

Pine remains more exposed to further weakness because demand is visibly softer and buyers have greater leverage. Spruce remains better supported by tighter fresh-log availability and the absence so far of unusually large calamity volumes.<\/p>\n

Lumber price growth has slowed sharply<\/h2>\n

German softwood lumber producer prices remain above last year's levels, but the rate of increase has steadily narrowed during 2026.<\/p>\n

Prices were around 14.6% higher year-on-year in January<\/strong>, before the increase slowed to 12.8% in February, 11.2% in March, 8.7% in April and 8.5% in May.<\/p>\n

The timber input side initially moved in the opposite direction. Official German producer-price data show stemwood prices rising 10.8% year-on-year in January, 15.2% in February, 15.6% in March and 16.6% in April<\/strong>. The widening gap between input-price growth and lumber-price growth during spring explains much of the margin pressure reported by mills. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}<\/p>\n

A portion of the logs processed during the second quarter had also been purchased under contracts agreed when roundwood prices were stronger. Mills therefore faced a lag between procurement costs and the prices obtainable for finished lumber.<\/p>\n

Production restraint has become one of the main ways of managing that imbalance. Increasing output into a market unable to absorb additional lumber at acceptable prices would create inventory pressure while consuming comparatively expensive logs.<\/p>\n

Capacity reductions are moving from temporary to structural<\/h2>\n

German sawmills initially responded to weaker demand mainly through operating schedules: fewer shifts, longer maintenance periods, Kurzarbeit and production adjusted to confirmed orders.<\/p>\n

During 2026, some of those measures have moved beyond temporary curtailments. In July, the German sawmill association said many companies expected to reduce production capacities in the following weeks and extend planned maintenance periods. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}<\/p>\n

Mercer Torgau<\/strong> provides one of the clearest company-level examples. Mercer announced a restructuring of the site in July involving lower production capacity, changes to the product portfolio and a substantial reduction in employment.<\/p>\n

The programme started with the removal of approximately 100 contractor positions<\/strong>, while the company expects the total workforce reduction to reach around 350 positions<\/strong>, with the restructuring completed in stages by around the second quarter of 2027.<\/p>\n

The adjustment at Torgau is different from a normal summer maintenance stop. It represents an attempt to bring the operating profile and cost base of a major German sawmill into line with a smaller market.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere in Germany, capacity adjustment is occurring through a combination of lower daily throughput, fewer shifts, extended technical shutdowns and short-time working. Not all of this represents permanently dismantled installed capacity, but it directly lowers effective capacity available to the market during 2026.<\/p>\n

The extent of the adjustment can already be seen in national production volumes. Forecast softwood lumber production of 18.49 million m\u00b3 would be around 6.85 million m\u00b3 below the 2021 peak<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

For commodity mills, the calculation is increasingly straightforward: additional production only makes sense if the spread between sawlog procurement and lumber selling prices covers the full cost of running the line.<\/p>\n

Integrated producers with drying, planing, engineered wood or energy operations have more options for allocating material internally. Commodity-oriented sawmills remain more directly exposed to the sawlog\/lumber spread.<\/p>\n

Construction is finally providing better numbers<\/p>\n

The first clearly positive demand indicator has come from German residential building permits.<\/p>\n

A total of 126,300 dwellings were approved during the first half of 2026<\/strong>, up 15.1% from 109,800 in the same period of 2025.<\/p>\n

Permits for dwellings in newly constructed residential buildings increased 15.8%. Single-family housing approvals rose 12.7%, two-family housing 27.3% and apartments in multi-family buildings 16.9%. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}<\/p>\n

The increase comes after two exceptionally weak years. Only 109,800 dwellings were approved during the first half of 2025 and 106,700 during the same period of 2024.<\/p>\n

Actual construction activity remains much weaker. Germany completed only 206,600 homes in 2025<\/strong>, down around 18% year-on-year and the lowest total since 2012.<\/p>\n

The time between approval and completion has also increased substantially, which means the recovery in permits will not immediately translate into structural timber consumption.<\/p>\n

For sawmills, much of the stronger permit data remains more relevant for 2027<\/strong> than for the final four months of 2026.<\/p>\n

Export markets offer limited room for additional output<\/h2>\n

Weak German construction would normally encourage producers to move more lumber abroad. International markets are providing only limited room for additional German volume in 2026.<\/p>\n

European producers are competing for cautious buyers across North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, while trade disruptions have repeatedly altered regional flows.<\/p>\n

German producers face this competition with comparatively high raw material, labour, energy and logistics costs. Higher production is difficult to justify if additional lumber has to be sold into export markets at prices that do not recover those costs.<\/p>\n

This has reinforced the shift towards production schedules based on actual orders rather than technical plant capacity.<\/p>\n

GWMI Q4 2026 market view<\/h2>\n

<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Market indicator<\/th>\nQ4 view<\/th>\nGWMI assessment<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
German softwood lumber output<\/td>\n\u2193<\/td>\nReduced utilisation and extended maintenance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spruce sawlog prices<\/td>\n\u2198<\/td>\nModerate correction, base case \u20ac115\u2013122\/fm<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pine sawlog prices<\/td>\n\u2198<\/td>\nWeaker demand and more seller pressure<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lumber inventories<\/td>\n\u2192<\/td>\nProduction discipline limits stock build-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Softwood lumber prices<\/td>\n\u2192 \/ \u2198<\/td>\nSelective weakness rather than broad price collapse<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
German construction demand<\/td>\n\u2192<\/td>\nStill weak despite stronger permits<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Export demand<\/td>\n\u2192 \/ \u2198<\/td>\nLimited outlet for additional German volume<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2027 German demand outlook<\/td>\n\u2197<\/td>\nHousing permits provide first positive pipeline signal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
GWMI base-case assessment as of August 30, 2026.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

What to expect from September through December<\/h2>\n

The numbers entering September leave little room for a large German production rebound before year-end.<\/p>\n

The 2026 forecast of 18.49 million m\u00b3<\/strong> implies a further annual reduction of approximately 1.87 million m\u00b3<\/strong> of softwood lumber production.<\/p>\n

Softwood sawlog cutting would fall by another 3.1 million m\u00b3 to 30.51 million m\u00b3<\/strong>, leaving annual log consumption more than 11 million m\u00b3 below the 2021 level.<\/p>\n

On the raw material side, the first-quarter shortage has clearly eased. Sawmill inventories are better filled and several regional organisations report slower log collection. This gives mills leverage when negotiating autumn contracts.<\/p>\n

GWMI therefore expects further downward pressure on new spruce contracts, but the likely scale remains moderate unless harvesting or damaged-timber volumes increase considerably. A Q4 range around \u20ac115\u2013122\/fm for spruce 2b+ B\/BC<\/strong> is currently the most plausible base case.<\/p>\n

Pine remains more exposed to weakness, with a Q4 range around \u20ac82\u201388\/fm<\/strong> plausible under current demand conditions.<\/p>\n

On the lumber side, mills have little reason to raise production simply because raw material becomes several euros cheaper. Domestic construction remains weak and export markets are not offering an obvious outlet for a large increase in German volume.<\/p>\n

Lower utilisation is also helping prevent a large accumulation of finished lumber. That should reduce the risk of a broad Q4 price collapse, even if individual grades and regional markets remain under pressure.<\/p>\n

The most likely autumn pattern is therefore a combination of slightly softer sawlog prices, disciplined lumber output and selective weakness in finished-product prices<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Temporary production reductions will remain part of the market through the fourth quarter. Extended maintenance, fewer shifts, short-time working and selective operating schedules allow mills to react to order intake without committing to permanent closures.<\/p>\n

Where weak margins persist, however, the 2026 restructuring measures already announced in the sector show that temporary curtailment can become structural capacity reduction.<\/p>\n

The housing market provides the strongest argument for a more positive 2027. Permits have finally turned higher by double digits, but the construction pipeline remains slow and completions are still at historically depressed levels.<\/p>\n

For the remainder of 2026, German sawmills are therefore likely to continue prioritising margin over volume<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

At the current forecast, Germany would finish 2026 producing approximately 18.5 million m\u00b3 of softwood lumber compared with 25.3 million m\u00b3 five years earlier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

That would place production almost 7 million m\u00b3 below the 2021 peak<\/strong> and softwood sawlog cutting more than 11 million m\u00b3 below its corresponding high<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The final months of 2026 are unlikely to be defined by how much German sawmills are technically capable of producing, but by how much production can be justified at current log prices and current lumber demand.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Germany’s softwood sawmill industry is heading into the final four months of 2026 with production already at its lowest level in more than a decade and another sizeable contraction expected this year. The latest industry forecast points to German softwood … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGerman sawmill industry: What to expect for the remainder of 2026? - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/german-sawmill-industry-what-to-expect-for-the-remainder-of-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"German sawmill industry: What to expect for the remainder of 2026? - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Germany's softwood sawmill industry is heading into the final four months of 2026 with production already at its lowest level in more than a decade and another sizeable contraction expected this year. 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