New Zealand export log prices recovered in July and August after falling sharply in June, supported by lower inventories in China and relatively restrained supply from New Zealand. A-grade 3.9 m logs are currently returning around NZ$125\/JAS at North Island ports and NZ$115\/JAS in the South Island.<\/p>\n
Export log prices dropped about 7% in June but have since moved back above their 12-month average. The recovery has taken place despite continued weakness in China, where construction activity remains subdued and manufacturing indicators deteriorated during July.<\/p>\n
Log stocks in China have fallen slightly to around 2.47 million m\u00b3, with daily offtake running just below 60,000 m\u00b3. At the same time, New Zealand shipments have been constrained by winter weather and loading disruptions at Gisborne. Repeated long-wave events have prevented vessels from berthing, creating temporary backlogs at the port and forcing logs to remain longer in forest storage.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, while second-quarter economic growth slowed to 4.3%. The weakness in construction remains particularly relevant for New Zealand radiata pine demand, although lower inventories are providing some support to log prices.<\/p>\n
Storm timber and freight remain important<\/strong><\/p>\n New Zealand is still dealing with the effects of several years of major storm damage. Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023, wind damage in Nelson-Tasman in 2025 and storms in the southern North Island this year resulted in additional harvesting outside normal schedules.<\/p>\n Salvage operations have largely finished in the North Island, but work continues in Nelson. The additional volumes entered the market when demand was already weak, although export prices have remained relatively stable over the past 12 months apart from the June decline.<\/p>\n Further wind damage remains a risk heading into spring. Strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions are expected to bring unusually windy weather, potentially increasing windthrow and causing further disruption to harvesting and forest infrastructure.<\/p>\n Freight is another constraint. Shipping costs remain above US$40\/JAS, reducing the benefit of higher log prices for New Zealand exporters. Unless geopolitical conditions improve, a significant reduction in freight rates appears unlikely in the near term.<\/p>\n Conditions in India have also weakened. Monsoon flooding across northern, western and central parts of the country has reduced demand for radiata pine lumber by around 50%, while log vessel arrivals are running about 50% below July levels. Around six vessels are currently expected at Kandla, where berth damage has added to existing handling constraints.<\/p>\n Containerised logs from New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and the US are also arriving at Tuticorin. With limited processing capacity close to the port, much of this timber must be transported several hundred kilometres to sawmills.<\/p>\n Domestic supply tightens<\/strong><\/p>\n New Zealand sawmills are meanwhile seeing tighter domestic log availability and lower inventories. Pruned logs are particularly sought after, with prices remaining firm and some mills prepared to pay part of the additional transport cost to secure supply from outside their normal procurement areas.<\/p>\n Export conditions could also strengthen towards the end of 2026. Chinese inventories are declining, New Zealand supply has been relatively restrained and the Chinese log futures market is indicating expectations of higher spot prices. Weak construction demand in China and freight costs above US$40\/JAS remain the main limits on how much of that improvement reaches New Zealand exporters.<\/p>\n \u00a0August 2026 market update and published A Grade wharf gate price chart.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" New Zealand export log prices recovered in July and August after falling sharply in June, supported by lower inventories in China and relatively restrained supply from New Zealand. A-grade 3.9 m logs are currently returning around NZ$125\/JAS at North Island … Continue reading \n\n
\n \nIndicator<\/th>\n Price<\/th>\n Comment<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n North Island A Grade 3.9 m<\/strong><\/td>\n ~NZ$125\/JAS<\/strong><\/td>\n August 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n South Island A Grade 3.9 m<\/strong><\/td>\n ~NZ$115\/JAS<\/strong><\/td>\n August 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 3-year average<\/strong><\/td>\n NZ$121.39\/JAS<\/strong><\/td>\n Export A Grade at wharf gate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n June 2026 movement<\/strong><\/td>\n \u22127%<\/strong><\/td>\n Monthly decline before July-August recovery<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Shipping cost<\/strong><\/td>\n >US$40\/JAS<\/strong><\/td>\n Current export freight level<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n