Japan wants to lift domestic timber use by 7 million m\u00b3 by 2035, setting up a gradual shift in one of the world's most established import markets. For European and Canadian sawmills, the immediate threat is limited, but the direction of Japanese policy is increasingly clear: a larger share of construction lumber should come from Japan's own forests.<\/p>\n
Japan's new Basic Plan for Forests and Forestry, approved by the Cabinet on June 5, targets domestic wood use of 42 million m\u00b3 in 2035, up from around 35 million m\u00b3 in 2024. With total demand projected at about 85 million m\u00b3, the plan would lift wood self-sufficiency from roughly 43% to 49%.<\/p>\n
The numbers do not point to the disappearance of imported timber. Even if the target is achieved, Japan would still require roughly 43 million m\u00b3 of foreign wood and wood products. But the planned increase in domestic supply is larger than the expected growth in overall demand. In simple terms, around 4 million m\u00b3 of additional Japanese production could displace imports rather than satisfy new consumption.<\/p>\n
Europe has the most at stake in softwood lumber<\/strong><\/p>\n Japan imported around 1.64 million m\u00b3 of softwood lumber in the first half of 2026, 13% less than a year earlier. The EU remained by far the largest source, supplying approximately 929,000 m\u00b3, or 57% of the total, despite a 10% decline.<\/p>\n Canada supplied around 322,000 m\u00b3, down 14%, while Russian deliveries fell 24% to approximately 231,000 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n June provided some relief. EU shipments jumped 38% from May to 181,000 m\u00b3, giving European producers around 58% of the monthly market. But the rebound came against a weak comparison and left shipments 10% below June 2025.<\/p>\n For European sawmills, particularly Nordic and Central European producers accustomed to supplying structural lumber to Japan, the government's strategy adds a structural risk to an already shrinking market. Japan is not simply experiencing a cyclical slowdown in imports; Tokyo is actively trying to increase the domestic share of the construction wood market.<\/p>\n The new plan targets domestic construction wood use at 23 million m\u00b3 by 2030 and 26 million m\u00b3 by 2035, compared with about 18 million m\u00b3 in 2024. Within that, domestic wood destined for lumber production is targeted to rise from roughly 14 million m\u00b3 to 20 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\n Canada faces a different problem<\/strong><\/p>\n Canadian producers are less exposed by volume than Europe but occupy valuable segments of the Japanese market. Canadian lumber entered Japan in June at an average JPY 63,954\/m\u00b3 (\u20ac351\/m\u00b3), compared with JPY 53,910\/m\u00b3 (\u20ac296\/m\u00b3) for EU material.<\/p>\n Japan has traditionally been a market where specifications, quality and reliability can support premiums unavailable in commodity markets. A stronger Japanese domestic lumber industry would therefore not need to replace Canadian or European imports tonne for tonne to hurt exporters. Competition concentrated in structural applications could erode some of the higher-value business that makes Japan attractive in the first place.<\/p>\n Russia is already losing ground more quickly. First-half Russian softwood lumber shipments were down around 24%, while its share of June imports fell to roughly 10%.<\/p>\n Japan finally has the timber to attempt it<\/strong><\/p>\n Previous attempts to raise domestic timber use were constrained by the structure of Japan's forestry sector. That constraint is changing.<\/p>\n Japan has around 25 million hectares of forest, including roughly 10 million hectares of plantations established heavily during the post-war period. Large areas of sugi and hinoki plantations have now reached harvesting age.<\/p>\n The problem is increasingly economic rather than biological. Fragmented ownership, steep terrain, high harvesting and reforestation costs, labour shortages and weak returns have prevented available forest resources from translating automatically into competitive lumber.<\/p>\n The new policy is aimed directly at those bottlenecks. Prefectures are expected to develop forestry revitalisation plans with industry participants, while the government wants greater consolidation of forest management, increased use of digital technology and mechanisation, better coordination between forest owners, processors and end users, and more investment in higher-value wood products. The Forestry Agency is also seeking subsidies to support these programmes.<\/p>\n The government has explicitly linked stronger domestic wood demand with the ability of forestry operators to finance harvesting and reforestation. Japan's latest forestry white paper similarly puts greater wood utilisation and reforestation at the centre of establishing a functioning forest-resource cycle.<\/p>\n Engineered wood could become another competitive front<\/strong><\/p>\n The shift is unlikely to stop at conventional lumber. Japan wants to expand domestic production and use of engineered wood products, including CLT, and increase the use of timber in non-residential and larger buildings.<\/p>\n That could eventually affect another European stronghold. In June, Japan imported 51,000 m\u00b3 of glulam, of which the EU supplied 37,000 m\u00b3, or about 73%. European glulam shipments were already 25% below June 2025.<\/p>\n Japan has pursued domestic substitution in engineered structural products before. Earlier forestry policy specifically targeted increased domestic production of kiln-dried structural lumber, dimension lumber and engineered wood products as part of efforts to improve the competitiveness of Japanese wood in construction.<\/p>\n A slow shift rather than an import shock<\/strong><\/p>\n The 2035 target leaves foreign suppliers plenty of room. Japan's ageing population, shrinking housing market, harvesting costs and shortage of forestry workers make a rapid replacement of imported lumber improbable. The country will remain a major wood importer even under the government's own assumptions.<\/p>\n But exporters may increasingly have to compete for a smaller share of that market.<\/p>\n The first-half 2026 figures offer an early indication of what that environment can look like: Japanese softwood lumber imports down 13%, EU shipments down 10%, Canadian volumes down 14% and Russian supply down 24%, even as import prices remained comparatively firm.<\/p>\n For European producers, Japan has long offered diversification away from weaker continental markets and access to customers willing to pay for consistent structural grades. Canada's exposure is smaller but concentrated in similarly valuable business.<\/p>\n Tokyo's target does not threaten those trade flows overnight. But if Japan succeeds in adding 7 million m\u00b3 of domestic timber supply while total demand grows by only 3 million m\u00b3, foreign suppliers will ultimately be competing for a market that is several million cubic metres smaller. That is the part of the new forestry plan exporters cannot ignore.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Japan wants to lift domestic timber use by 7 million m\u00b3 by 2035, setting up a gradual shift in one of the world’s most established import markets. For European and Canadian sawmills, the immediate threat is limited, but the direction … Continue reading