European timber markets are entering the second half of 2026 with millions of cubic metres of forced fellings still moving through the supply chain. Around 13 million m\u00b3 of storm-damaged timber has been recorded in Sweden alone since late December, while the latest wildfires in southwestern France have affected another 3.5 million m\u00b3 of pine. Drought, bark beetle risks and further storm damage are adding smaller but widespread volumes across Central Europe.<\/p>\n
The accumulation started before 2026 had even begun. Storm Johannes struck Sweden on 27 December 2025 and felled 10.9 million m\u00b3 of timber, concentrated mainly in G\u00e4vleborg, Dalarna and neighbouring parts of central Sweden. The volume was equivalent to roughly 12% of an entire normal annual Swedish harvest and represented the country's largest storm-related forest loss in about a decade.<\/p>\n
Heavy snow brought by storm Anna immediately complicated harvesting and removal of the Johannes timber. Large quantities therefore remained in forests, roadside storage and industrial inventories during the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n
Before that timber had been absorbed, another major storm arrived.<\/p>\n
Storm Dave hit southern Sweden around Easter and felled more than 2 million m\u00b3, particularly in V\u00e4stra G\u00f6taland and J\u00f6nk\u00f6ping. Johannes and Dave consequently generated around 13 million m\u00b3 of additional timber within less than four months.<\/p>\n
Norway entered 2026 with another sizeable pool of storm timber. Storm Amy felled an estimated 300,000 m\u00b3 in M\u00f8re og Romsdal, roughly equivalent to an entire year of normal harvesting in the region, with spruce accounting for most of the damage. The clean-up accelerated during the spring: timber deliveries in M\u00f8re og Romsdal in January-April were 61% higher year on year, corresponding to around 60,000 m\u00b3 of additional timber, and spruce accounted for 91% of measured volume. Average spruce prices stood at NOK 790\/m\u00b3, down from NOK 904\/m\u00b3 in 2025. The timing added to the Nordic supply pressure, as Amy salvage timber was reaching the Norwegian market while the much larger Johannes volumes were being processed in neighbouring Sweden.<\/p>\n
Sweden: storm timber remains visible in inventories<\/strong><\/p>\n The effect can still be seen in Swedish timber stocks.<\/p>\n At the end of June, Swedish industry held approximately 3.5 million m\u00b3 of softwood sawlogs, alongside 5.2 million m\u00b3 of pulpwood and 1 million m\u00b3 of pulp chips.<\/p>\n National softwood sawlog inventories had fallen by 23% from the previous quarter, but this masks the situation in the region most heavily affected by Johannes.<\/p>\n In timber balance region 2, sawlog inventories increased another 15% during the second quarter to 1.38 million m\u00b3. Pulpwood inventories increased 42% to around 1.4 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n The figures indicate that a significant part of the Johannes volume has shifted from standing forest into harvested inventories rather than being fully absorbed by mills.<\/p>\n The market impact has already reached timber pricing. Swedish forest companies have reduced purchasing prices in areas affected by the storm as mills face greater availability of raw material. The combination of unusually high forced harvesting and weak European softwood lumber demand leaves little room for the market to absorb additional volumes quickly.<\/p>\n There is also a secondary risk from the huge volume of windthrown spruce. Swedish monitoring showed spruce bark beetles swarming in the areas hit by Johannes and Dave from May. The Swedish Forest Agency warned that trees left on the ground could provide breeding material and increase the risk of beetle multiplication, adding further damaged standing timber to the volumes already awaiting removal.<\/p>\n France suddenly adds another 3.5 million m\u00b3<\/strong><\/p>\n The latest large supply shock is now coming from southwestern France.<\/p>\n The Gironde wildfire that started on 22 July burned around 42,000 hectares, predominantly in the Landes de Gascogne maritime pine forest. French estimates put the affected timber volume at approximately 3.5 million m\u00b3 of pine, equivalent to around two-thirds of the region's normal annual production.<\/p>\n A further 210,000 m\u00b3 was affected by the Biscarrosse fire.<\/p>\n Earlier estimates put the total volume requiring rapid disposal across the wider affected region at around 5 million tonnes, equivalent to roughly 6\u20137 million m\u00b3, although the final merchantable volume will depend heavily on the severity of fire damage.<\/p>\n Unlike timber completely destroyed by fire, much of the Gironde pine remains commercially usable. In many stands the flames damaged mainly the bark and undergrowth while leaving the stems relatively intact.<\/p>\n This creates a short commercial window. The timber must be harvested before fungal blue stain, insects and further deterioration reduce its value.<\/p>\n Local industry estimates indicate values ranging from only around \u20ac10\/m\u00b3 for badly damaged material to more than \u20ac50\/m\u00b3 for timber suitable for higher-value uses. The least valuable material is expected to enter pellet and energy markets, while better logs can still be used for pallets, pulp, plywood, battens and other wood products.<\/p>\n With millions of cubic metres potentially arriving over a relatively short period, local market participants fear timber prices could fall by more than 20%.<\/p>\n Spain: more than 244,000 hectares burned<\/strong><\/p>\n Spain represents a potentially larger but much less quantified timber shock.<\/p>\n By 10 August, more than 244,000 hectares had burned in around 400 fires, approximately six times the area recorded at the same stage of 2025.<\/p>\n Between 13 and 28 July alone, approximately 140,000 hectares burned, concentrated particularly in the \u00c1vila-Madrid-Toledo, Guadalajara and Castell\u00f3n fires.<\/p>\n Unlike France, however, there is not yet a reliable national estimate for the resulting merchantable salvage timber. The burned area includes different forest types and large areas where timber production is limited, meaning hectares cannot simply be converted into cubic metres.<\/p>\n Across the EU, the scale of the fire season is nevertheless substantial. 623,470 hectares had burned by 23 August 2026, according to EFFIS data. The area was below the exceptional 977,579 hectares recorded at the same point in 2025, but remained far above the long-term level. The 2006\u20132025 average stood at around 280,000 hectares by 19 August.<\/p>\n Central Europe: drought raises the risk of new forced fellings<\/strong><\/p>\n The supply risk is no longer limited to storm and fire-damaged forests.<\/p>\n Austria has seen a marked deterioration in forest conditions during 2026. Spring was the driest since national records began, with precipitation almost 50% below the long-term average, while July brought another 53% rainfall deficit and temperatures 2\u00b0C above the 1991\u20132020 average. By early August, Austrian bark beetle monitoring was showing high flight activity, with the second generation of Ips typographus already close to emerging in lower elevations.<\/p>\n Germany is seeing a similar development. In Bavaria, persistent heat and drought during July and early August weakened spruce stands just as the second generation of Ips typographus approached emergence.<\/p>\n On 4 August, the Bavarian State Institute of Forestry said the second generation was already in late larval development, with pupae and young beetles appearing in some areas. The first emergence was expected within two weeks in southern Swabia, the Danube hill country, southern Lower Bavaria and western Lower Franconia, followed by the rest of Bavaria during the second half of August.<\/p>\n So far, however, Bavaria has avoided a major new wave of beetle-damaged timber. Reported volumes in early August were approximately 67% below the corresponding period of 2025, although volumes had recently started rising continuously in southern Bavaria. Forestry authorities warned that heat- and drought-stressed spruce is now easier for beetles to attack.<\/p>\n This makes the next several weeks important for timber supply. A large second-generation infestation would require affected spruce to be harvested and removed rapidly, creating additional forced volumes during late summer and autumn. Windthrown and broken spruce poses an additional risk because it provides fresh breeding material from which beetles can spread into standing forests.<\/p>\n More than 16.9 million m\u00b3 already identifiable<\/strong><\/p>\n The volumes that can currently be quantified show the scale of the problem even without attempting to estimate Spanish wildfire salvage, German windthrow or new bark beetle damage. The major storms in Sweden and Norway together with the quantified fire-damaged timber in southwestern France already account for more than 16.9 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n The figure is conservative. It excludes the still unquantified merchantable volume resulting from more than 244,000 hectares burned in Spain, additional French fires and any new forced harvesting caused by drought, storms or bark beetle infestation in Central Europe.<\/p>\n The timing is particularly difficult for European sawmills. These are not 16.9 million m\u00b3 of interchangeable sawlogs: quality, species and distance to processing capacity differ considerably. But the volumes have one thing in common \u2014 they have to be marketed relatively quickly.<\/p>\n Storm timber deteriorates once temperatures rise, burned pine is vulnerable to blue stain and insects, and beetle-damaged spruce loses value if harvesting is delayed. Forest owners therefore have less flexibility to postpone sales when prices weaken.<\/p>\n The result is a growing pool of price-sensitive forced timber entering European markets at a time when construction demand and softwood lumber consumption remain weak.<\/p>\n Rather than a single Europe-wide glut, 2026 is producing a series of regional surpluses: central Sweden after Johannes, southern Sweden after Dave, western Norway after Amy, southwestern France after the Gironde fires and potentially further salvage concentrations in Spain and Central Europe.<\/p>\n With the main wildfire season still not over and the second bark beetle generation now emerging in parts of Central Europe, the European damaged-timber total for 2026 could rise further during late summer and autumn.<\/p>\n Europe's 2026 damaged timber picture<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" European timber markets are entering the second half of 2026 with millions of cubic metres of forced fellings still moving through the supply chain. Around 13 million m\u00b3 of storm-damaged timber has been recorded in Sweden alone since late December, … Continue reading \n\n
\n \nEvent<\/th>\n Region<\/th>\n Impact<\/th>\n Context<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n Storm Johannes<\/td>\n Sweden<\/td>\n 10.9m m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n ~12% of annual Swedish harvest<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Storm Dave<\/td>\n Sweden<\/td>\n >2.0m m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n Southern Sweden<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Storm Amy<\/td>\n Norway<\/td>\n ~0.3m m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n ~1 year of regional harvesting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Gironde wildfire<\/td>\n Fran\u021ba<\/td>\n ~3.5m m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n ~42,000 ha burned<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Biscarrosse fire<\/td>\n Fran\u021ba<\/td>\n 0.21m m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n Additional salvage timber<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Wildfires<\/td>\n Spain<\/td>\n >244,000 ha<\/strong><\/td>\n Timber volume not yet quantified<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Wildfires<\/td>\n EU total<\/td>\n 623,470 ha<\/strong><\/td>\n Burned by 23 Aug. 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Quantified storm\/fire timber<\/strong><\/td>\n >16.9m m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n Excludes Spain and new Central European salvage<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n