Nearly six months after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted, the MENA lumber market is still operating through alternative ports, overland routes and additional transshipment. Demand has not disappeared, but the geography of the trade has changed sharply. Saudi Arabia and major North African markets are absorbing substantial volumes, while expensive logistics continue to constrain business deeper inside the Gulf.<\/p>\n
Traffic through Hormuz remains far below normal levels, forcing carriers and timber traders to rely on alternative routing through Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Salalah and Sohar.<\/p>\n
The initial shock has therefore developed into a more permanent logistics problem. Lumber can reach Gulf customers, but the cost of getting it there has changed the economics of many transactions.<\/p>\n
Emergency freight charges on affected routes remain around $3,000 per 40-foot dry container, before additional costs for overland transport, extra handling, storage, detention, insurance and container repositioning.<\/p>\n
For commodity spruce and pine, these costs can quickly eliminate the margin available to either the exporter or importer.<\/p>\n
Alternative routes keep the market supplied<\/strong><\/p>\n Jeddah has become particularly important because it provides direct Red Sea access to Saudi Arabia, the largest structural timber market in the Gulf. Khor Fakkan offers an alternative entry point on the eastern side of the UAE outside Hormuz, while Salalah and Sohar provide additional options through Oman.<\/p>\n From these ports, timber can continue by truck or through feeder connections. The system works, but with more handling, longer and less predictable delivery schedules and substantially higher costs.<\/p>\n European spruce shipped to Qatar provides an example of the additional expense involved. Before the disruption, cargo could move through Jebel Ali and continue by feeder vessel to Hamad Port in roughly 45 days. Alternative routing through Khor Fakkan followed by overland transport added around $3,600 per container in one documented shipment, while some quotations reached $5,000.<\/p>\n Standard European 2x4 spruce that had previously sold at around QAR 23\u201325 per piece was subsequently being offered at approximately QAR 35\u201337.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia emerges as the strongest Gulf outlet<\/strong><\/p>\n Saudi Arabia has become the clearest large Gulf market under the new logistics structure. Its Red Sea access allows timber to enter through Jeddah and move inland without depending on Hormuz.<\/p>\n The difference is visible in June trade flows. EU softwood lumber exports to Saudi Arabia reached almost 375,000 m\u00b3, more than double the volume recorded in June 2025.<\/p>\n This contrasts with the UAE, where EU shipments fell 58% year on year. Rather than indicating a general collapse in Gulf demand, the divergence shows how strongly access to workable shipping routes is determining where timber can be sold.<\/p>\n Saudi demand itself remains substantial. Housing, infrastructure, logistics, tourism and other construction programmes continue to require large volumes of construction lumber and related wood products, although procurement has become more cautious.<\/p>\n Importers are less willing to commit several months forward when the eventual delivered cost remains difficult to predict.<\/p>\n Buyers reduce exposure<\/strong><\/p>\n The response across much of the Gulf has been to keep inventories and forward commitments shorter.<\/p>\n Buyers that previously covered several months of requirements are increasingly purchasing smaller parcels or waiting until they have greater visibility on freight.<\/p>\n This has produced a stop-start market. Low stocks can generate sudden buying and relatively firm spot prices, but that does not necessarily translate into larger forward orders.<\/p>\n It also creates a widening difference between the price paid by the importer and the netback received by the sawmill. Replacement lumber can become considerably more expensive at destination without producing a corresponding improvement for the producer because freight, insurance and additional logistics absorb the difference.<\/p>\n Reliability has consequently become more important in negotiations. A low mill price has limited value if the cargo cannot be booked at a predictable freight rate or delivered within an acceptable period.<\/p>\n North Africa becomes more important<\/strong><\/p>\n North Africa is developing differently because the main markets remain accessible through Mediterranean and Red Sea routes without the same dependence on Hormuz.<\/p>\n The region is also a natural alternative for lumber that is difficult to place farther east.<\/p>\n EU softwood lumber shipments to the main North African markets reached roughly 543,000 m\u00b3 in June, around 30% more than a year earlier.<\/p>\n Egypt was by far the largest destination, taking almost 279,000 m\u00b3, an increase of 56%. Morocco imported around 170,000 m\u00b3, up 17%.<\/p>\n These are commercially significant volumes and indicate that North Africa is absorbing part of the redistribution taking place within MENA.<\/p>\n Egypt offers the greatest scale in North Africa, supported by construction, furniture production and a large domestic distribution market. Financing conditions and access to foreign currency can still influence purchasing, but when importers are active the country can absorb large quantities quickly.<\/p>\n Morocco is smaller but remains an established and commercially active market for European softwood. Buyers are highly price-sensitive, which makes the country particularly relevant when European mills need to redirect commodity grades.<\/p>\n Algeria remains more difficult to read. Recent oversupply has put prices under pressure, while import licensing continues to determine how quickly underlying demand translates into purchases. A change in licence availability could alter the market relatively quickly, but exporters cannot treat that demand as continuously accessible.<\/p>\n First-half trade remains sharply below 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n The stronger June figures come after several exceptionally weak months.<\/p>\n Across the wider MENA destination group shown in the trade data, softwood lumber shipments from Europe fell from approximately 10.27 million m\u00b3 in the first half of 2025 to 6.65 million m\u00b3 in H1 2026, a decline of around 35%.<\/p>\n January started above the previous year's level, but the market deteriorated sharply afterwards. Exports were down 37% in February and 34% in March before the decline accelerated to 63% in April and 42% in May.<\/p>\n June reversed the direction, with shipments rising 37% year on year to just over 1.0 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n The June recovery therefore does not erase the losses accumulated earlier in the year. It does, however, show that the region remains capable of taking significant quantities when logistics and delivered prices align.<\/p>\n More importantly, the recovery is not evenly distributed. Saudi Arabia and the large North African markets are doing much more of the work.<\/p>\n Competition between suppliers is changing<\/strong><\/p>\n The disruption is also weakening some of the freight advantage traditionally enjoyed by European producers.<\/p>\n European mills normally benefit from shorter distances to MENA than suppliers in Brazil, Chile, New Zealand or North America. That advantage becomes smaller when European cargo itself requires transshipment, trucking, additional handling and expensive insurance.<\/p>\n Commodity grades are particularly exposed. Pallet lumber, sideboards and basic construction dimensions can be substituted relatively easily when another origin offers a better landed price.<\/p>\n Nordic spruce and pine remain well established in the region, particularly where buyers require familiar dimensions, appearance grades or consistent specifications. But importers have stronger reasons to diversify their supplier base than they did before the shipping disruption.<\/p>\n The result is unlikely to be a wholesale replacement of European lumber. Instead, buyers are adding origins and reducing dependence on individual routes and suppliers.<\/p>\n European exporters are also changing position<\/strong><\/p>\n The first-half figures show considerable differences between European supplying countries.<\/p>\n Finland and Sweden both shipped substantially less softwood lumber to MENA than a year earlier. Finnish exports fell by around 37% to approximately 1.39 million m\u00b3, while Swedish shipments declined around 38% to 1.10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n Spain moved in the opposite direction, increasing shipments by around 36% to more than 812,000 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n This matters because the competition is not simply between European and non-European lumber. The redistribution of MENA demand is also changing the position of individual European producing countries.<\/p>\n Mills able to alter dimensions, grades and destinations have more room to react when a Gulf programme becomes uneconomic. Producers tied to a narrow specification or customer base have fewer alternatives.<\/p>\n Displaced cargo puts pressure on other markets<\/strong><\/p>\n When a cargo intended for the Gulf no longer produces an acceptable netback, the lumber does not disappear. It has to find another buyer.<\/p>\n North Africa is taking part of this material, but volumes are also being redirected towards Southern Europe, packaging markets and selected Asian destinations.<\/p>\n That often means accepting weaker margins. Dimensions cut for Gulf construction customers do not necessarily correspond perfectly with requirements elsewhere, while buyers know when sellers need to clear stock.<\/p>\n For sawmills already dealing with relatively high sawlog costs and weak European construction demand, the loss of profitable MENA business adds pressure.<\/p>\n This is particularly relevant for commodity production, where a relatively small change in freight can turn an acceptable export order into an unattractive one.<\/p>\n June 2026 export volumes<\/p>\n Source: Eurostat. Selected major MENA destinations; HS 440710, 440711, 440712 and 440719.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MENA is becoming several different lumber markets<\/strong><\/p>\n The past six months have shown that demand in MENA is more resilient than the logistics system serving it.<\/p>\n Construction continues, timber is still being imported and traders have developed alternative routes. But the old assumption that MENA can be treated as a relatively integrated export region is becoming less useful.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia increasingly operates as a Red Sea trade. North Africa is gaining importance as a large, accessible Mediterranean outlet. Markets dependent on routes through or around Hormuz face a substantially different cost structure.<\/p>\n For exporters, the decisive calculation is therefore no longer simply the mill price.<\/p>\n Freight, insurance, handling, storage, trucking, container availability and the reliability of the route determine whether a transaction works.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nearly six months after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted, the MENA lumber market is still operating through alternative ports, overland routes and additional transshipment. Demand has not disappeared, but the geography of the trade has changed … Continue reading \n\n
\n \nGulf lumber logistics<\/th>\n Current position<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n Hormuz traffic<\/td>\n Around 90% below pre-conflict levels in late August<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 40-ft dry container emergency freight<\/td>\n Around $3,000\/container<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Saudi Arabia<\/td>\n Jeddah \/ Red Sea<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n UAE alternative<\/td>\n Khor Fakkan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Oman alternatives<\/td>\n Salalah and Sohar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n
\n \nMajor MENA markets \u2013 June 2026<\/th>\n EU softwood lumber exports<\/th>\n Y\/Y<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n Saudi Arabia<\/strong><\/td>\n 374,680 m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n +112%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Egipt<\/strong><\/td>\n 278,982 m\u00b3<\/td>\n +56%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Morocco<\/strong><\/td>\n 170,029 m\u00b3<\/td>\n +17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Algeria<\/strong><\/td>\n 53,121 m\u00b3<\/td>\n -9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n United Arab Emirates<\/strong><\/td>\n 19,427 m\u00b3<\/td>\n -58%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n
\n \nSoftwood lumber exports to MENA<\/th>\n 2025<\/th>\n 2026<\/th>\n Change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n January<\/td>\n 653,685 m\u00b3<\/td>\n 845,608 m\u00b3<\/td>\n +29%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n February<\/td>\n 1,074,169 m\u00b3<\/td>\n 672,550 m\u00b3<\/td>\n -37%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n March<\/td>\n 941,014 m\u00b3<\/td>\n 620,943 m\u00b3<\/td>\n -34%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n April<\/td>\n 2,247,992 m\u00b3<\/td>\n 830,131 m\u00b3<\/td>\n -63%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n May<\/td>\n 4,606,473 m\u00b3<\/td>\n 2,649,397 m\u00b3<\/td>\n -42%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n June<\/td>\n 747,771 m\u00b3<\/td>\n 1,027,932 m\u00b3<\/td>\n +37%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n H1 total<\/strong><\/td>\n 10,271,104 m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n 6,646,561 m\u00b3<\/strong><\/td>\n -35%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n EU softwood lumber exports to major MENA markets<\/h3>\n
\nm\u00b3 total<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n