{"id":99644,"date":"2026-08-18T03:15:56","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T03:15:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=99644"},"modified":"2026-08-18T14:29:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T14:29:48","slug":"lumber-prices-fall-as-canada-us-trade-talks-add-to-market-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/lumber-prices-fall-as-canada-us-trade-talks-add-to-market-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Lumber prices fall as Canada-US trade talks add to market uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

North American lumber prices moved lower again in August, with futures falling below $570 per thousand board feet as weaker US housing activity and uncertainty over Canada-US trade relations kept buyers cautious.<\/p>\n

The decline follows a much stronger market earlier in the summer. Spot lumber prices reached their highest level in four years in late July, supported by sawmill closures, production cuts and lower imports. Futures then reversed sharply, with September contracts losing more than 12% over roughly two weeks as traders reacted to weaker housing indicators and higher mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

Canada-US negotiations move to the forefront<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trade has become another major issue for the North American wood products sector. Canada and the US are negotiating ahead of an August 19 deadline, when Washington is due to introduce tariffs of up to 50% on nearly US$20 billion of Canadian goods.<\/p>\n

The new measures would cover around 5.2% of US imports from Canada and, unlike many earlier tariffs, would also apply to covered products that qualify for preferential treatment under USMCA. Furniture and other wood products are among the sectors exposed to the latest measures.<\/p>\n

The negotiations have intensified in recent days. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief trade negotiator Janice Charette have been holding frequent meetings with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, with discussions continuing through the weekend and into Monday.<\/p>\n

Progress has been uneven. Canadian officials initially indicated that both sides wanted an agreement before August 19, but by Friday the two countries were still described as far apart. Talks continued this week, with autos emerging as one of the main sticking points. Washington is considering reducing its 25% tariff on Canadian vehicles to 15%, but the two sides disagree over how North American content should be treated when calculating the tariff.<\/p>\n

Canada is also seeking reductions in existing US sectoral tariffs, while Washington has raised concerns over Canadian dairy quotas, tariffs on US autos and restrictions on American alcohol in several Canadian provinces. Canadian officials were reportedly dissatisfied with an earlier US proposal to reduce some tariffs, arguing that the reductions did not go far enough.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Softwood lumber remains under pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

The proposed 50% tariffs are separate from the existing US trade measures on Canadian softwood lumber, but the broader dispute is adding uncertainty to an industry already dealing with difficult export conditions.<\/p>\n

US demand for Canadian lumber fell around 1.7% during the first half of 2026, while Canada's share of the US market edged lower. Canadian shipments to markets outside the US also declined by around 3%.<\/p>\n

Alternative export markets have provided only limited relief. Canadian softwood lumber shipments to China increased during the first half of the year despite a sharp contraction in China's overall softwood lumber imports, but Asian markets cannot easily absorb the volumes traditionally shipped south of the Canadian border.<\/p>\n

The US remains Canada's most important lumber market, both because of its size and because Canadian SPF is deeply integrated into American distribution and construction markets.<\/p>\n

Weak US housing weighs on lumber demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

The bigger problem for lumber remains the US housing market.<\/p>\n

Higher mortgage rates continue to affect affordability, while builders and homebuyers remain cautious. July home sales fell 1.7% to an annualised 4.06 million units, weaker than expected, reinforcing concerns over lumber consumption during the second half of the year.<\/p>\n

The change in sentiment has been visible in lumber trading. After prices climbed on tighter supply earlier in the summer, traders began selling futures in late July as expectations for housing demand weakened.<\/p>\n

Dealers and wholesalers have also remained reluctant to build inventories aggressively. Falling futures, uncertain construction demand and unresolved trade negotiations favour short-term purchasing rather than speculative stocking.<\/p>\n

Canadian sawmills face another difficult period<\/strong><\/p>\n

For Canadian sawmills, weaker lumber prices are arriving after years of capacity reductions and difficult operating conditions, particularly in British Columbia.<\/p>\n

The earlier rally showed how quickly reduced production and lower imports can tighten the North American market. The subsequent decline shows that supply reductions alone cannot support prices indefinitely when housing demand remains weak.<\/p>\n

Further weakness could again push mills toward production curtailments rather than maintaining output at increasingly unattractive margins. This also limits the potential for a large structural oversupply to develop, even while buyers remain well supplied in the short term.<\/p>\n

The immediate focus is now on the Canada-US negotiations and whether an agreement can be reached before the August 19 tariff deadline. Talks were still active on Monday, with both sides trying to resolve outstanding issues before the new measures take effect.<\/p>\n

For the lumber market, however, trade is only part of the equation. A deal could remove some uncertainty and improve sentiment, but a sustained recovery in prices will still require stronger US housing activity and a return of more confident purchasing from builders, dealers and distributors.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North American lumber prices moved lower again in August, with futures falling below $570 per thousand board feet as weaker US housing activity and uncertainty over Canada-US trade relations kept buyers cautious. 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