European timber supply could come under substantially greater pressure if policymakers pursue the forest management changes outlined in a new study on the continent\u2019s declining carbon sink. The research estimates that forest harvesting across the EU would need to fall by around 28% between 2025 and 2030, compared with a business-as-usual trajectory, even if the bloc succeeds in planting three billion additional trees.<\/p>\n
The study, Alarming decline in the carbon sink of European forests driven by disturbances, was carried out by researchers from several European institutions, including Universit\u00e9 Paris-Saclay, the University of Copenhagen, the Technical University of Munich, the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry and the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences.<\/p>\n
The findings have potentially significant implications for Europe's wood markets. A reduction on the scale modelled by the researchers would affect an industry already dealing with uneven availability of sawlogs and pulpwood, while the pressure would not be distributed equally across the continent.<\/p>\n
Harvest reductions vary sharply across Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n Under the study's business-as-usual scenario, the EU-27 forest carbon sink is projected to decline from 467 million tonnes of CO\u2082 equivalent per year in 2010 to 287 million tonnes in 2030. The researchers calculate a 2030 forest carbon sink target of 392 million tonnes, leaving a gap of about 105 million tonnes under current trends.<\/p>\n Closing that gap would require considerably more than additional planting. The EU's pledge to plant three billion trees is estimated to add only around 15 million tonnes of CO\u2082 equivalent per year to the forest sink by 2030. According to the model, combining the planting programme with a 28% reduction in harvesting from 2025 to 2030 would bring the EU forest sink back to the calculated target.<\/p>\n The required adjustment differs considerably by region. The Atlantic region would face the largest reduction under the business-as-usual case, at around 40%. The Alpine region would require a 36% cut, the Mediterranean region 29%, the Continental region 28% and the Boreal region 27%.<\/p>\n For the timber market, these regional differences are important. The Continental and Boreal regions contain some of Europe's largest timber-producing areas, meaning that even reductions close to the EU average could translate into a substantial change in available harvesting volumes if such an approach were ultimately reflected in national forest policies.<\/p>\n The study does not, however, propose a binding EU harvesting quota, nor does the 28% figure mean that European logging is currently scheduled to fall by that amount. It is a modelling result showing the reduction required relative to the study's business-as-usual scenario to achieve its estimated 2030 forest carbon sink target.<\/p>\n Natural disturbances complicate the timber supply equation<\/strong><\/p>\n Harvesting is only part of the problem identified by the researchers. Natural disturbances have risen much faster.<\/p>\n Timber harvesting accounted for an estimated 85\u201386% of forest disturbances between 2001 and 2019, according to the data used in the study. However, mortality associated with natural disturbances increased by around 160% during 2010\u20132020, while forest loss associated with harvesting rose by a more moderate 20%. Storms, fires, bark beetle outbreaks, drought and heat are therefore becoming increasingly important factors in determining how much carbon European forests retain.<\/p>\n This creates a difficult problem for timber supply policy. Storms and bark beetle outbreaks can temporarily increase the amount of salvage timber entering the market, depressing prices in affected regions, but the subsequent loss of standing timber can reduce future availability. The study itself notes that some of the observed increase in harvesting may include salvage logging following natural disturbances.<\/p>\n The geographical projections also point to substantial differences within major timber-producing countries. Severe declines in forest carbon sinks are projected for Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, northern Germany, southern Sweden, southern Finland, Slovenia and parts of France and Portugal. Southern Germany, by contrast, is among the areas expected to remain a comparatively large carbon sink, partly because of recovery from earlier disturbances.<\/p>\n A more severe scenario would require much deeper cuts<\/strong><\/p>\n The 28% estimate is not the study's most pessimistic outcome. The researchers also modelled a \"collapse\" scenario in which natural disturbances increase by 25% and forest growth declines by 10%.<\/p>\n Under those assumptions, harvesting across the EU would have to fall by approximately 49% between 2025 and 2030, alongside the three-billion-tree programme, for the forest sink to reach the calculated target.<\/p>\n The regional reductions in that scenario range from 46% in the Boreal and Mediterranean regions to 51% in the Atlantic region, 53% in the Alpine region and 55% in the Continental region.<\/p>\n Such figures illustrate the potential conflict between climate objectives and Europe's demand for domestically produced wood. A significant reduction in European harvesting would not automatically reduce consumption of wood products. Unless demand declined at the same time, lower domestic supply could result in higher imports.<\/p>\n The researchers explicitly acknowledge this problem, warning that a continent-wide reduction in harvesting could cause \"carbon leakage\" outside Europe as European demand is met by timber sourced elsewhere. They therefore argue that harvest reductions should be considered alongside other forest management measures, including changes in thinning and rotation practices, regeneration strategies and decisions over salvage logging.<\/p>\n Harvested wood products provide part of the offset<\/strong><\/p>\n The study also provides a more complicated picture than simply treating timber harvesting as an immediate carbon loss. Carbon stored in harvested wood products is included in the model.<\/p>\n While the carbon sink associated with living above- and below-ground biomass is projected to decline by 58% between 2010 and 2030, the contribution from harvested wood products is expected to increase by 80%. Carbon stored in deadwood is projected to rise by 63%. Together, harvested wood products and deadwood could account for around 34% of the EU forest carbon sink by 2030, compared with approximately 12% in 2010.<\/p>\n The researchers nevertheless argue that the duration of carbon storage matters. They point to the short lifespan of many wood products and suggest that using a larger proportion of harvested timber in long-lived applications such as construction could improve the carbon balance. They also identify lower use of wood for bioenergy as one possible route to reducing harvesting pressure.<\/p>\n For Europe's forest products industry, this distinction could become increasingly important. Policies aimed at strengthening the forest carbon sink may ultimately affect different wood-consuming sectors differently, depending on whether regulators place greater value on long-lived wood products or focus primarily on reducing total removals.<\/p>\n The study estimates that between 13% and 18% of European forests could become net carbon sources by 2030, depending on the scenario. Its central conclusion is that increasing natural disturbances are occurring faster than forests can recover, while current harvesting levels add further pressure.<\/p>\n Whether governments would translate these modelling results into harvesting restrictions remains a separate political question. But for the European timber market, the study adds another element to the longer-term supply debate: climate policy may increasingly concern not only how forests are managed and regenerated, but also how much timber can be removed from them and where that wood is ultimately used.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" European timber supply could come under substantially greater pressure if policymakers pursue the forest management changes outlined in a new study on the continent\u2019s declining carbon sink. The research estimates that forest harvesting across the EU would need to fall … Continue reading