Russia\u2019s lumber production could fall by 2\u20134% in 2026, as the sector continues to be affected by the strong ruble, weak demand in export markets and lower domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
The final result will depend mainly on residential construction activity in Russia and demand from China, the main market for Russian lumber. High lending rates are expected to keep construction volumes under pressure, while the launch of new residential projects is likely to slow.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s real estate sector also remains weak, reducing demand for imported lumber. At the same time, Chinese buyers are increasingly replacing softwood lumber with hardwood lumber in some applications, which adds further pressure on Russian suppliers.<\/p>\n
Russian lumber production has declined in 2025, by around 2.5%, to 28.5 million m\u00b3. Output in the first four months of the year was already down by about 4%. The main reasons remain the same: the strong ruble, weak global demand, shrinking sales markets, sanctions and lower domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
A weaker ruble could help exporters and support production volumes. The exchange rate remains one of the main factors for the profitability of wood processing. At the current rate, only the strongest companies are likely to remain profitable, mainly those focused on Japan, producers of planed lumber and companies able to use low-grade raw material efficiently.<\/p>\n
These companies could still reach sales margins of around 5\u20137% by the end of the year. Medium-quality businesses may only break even, depending on the region, while weaker companies are likely to sell lumber at an operating loss.<\/p>\n
If the exchange rate moves above 90 rubles per US dollar, margins and EBITDA in the sector could return to a more normal level of 10\u201315%, helping stabilize the financial situation of sawmills.<\/p>\n
Russian softwood lumber sales to China fell by 26% in the first quarter of 2026, to 2.6 million m\u00b3. At the same time, Canada and Belarus increased their supplies to the Chinese market.<\/p>\n
In Shanghai, pine lumber prices ranged between 19,600 and 21,600 rubles\/m\u00b3 CFR, including freight, while spruce lumber prices ranged from 18,700 to 20,600 rubles\/m\u00b3. Prices remained relatively high because of reduced supply from Russia and logistical difficulties on the West Siberian Railway.<\/p>\n
As supply normalizes and seasonal demand weakens, the Chinese market is expected to face stronger pressure, which could push prices lower.<\/p>\n
With demand in China declining, Russian suppliers are looking for alternative markets. Uzbekistan is becoming a more important destination, but prices there are 15\u201325% lower than in China.<\/p>\n
Export growth is also limited by overloaded infrastructure in the eastern direction and slow railway wagon turnover.<\/p>\n
By the end of the year, production could fall by 5\u20137% in a best-case scenario, while small and medium-sized sawmills in the Northwest and Siberia face a growing risk of closure.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Russia\u2019s lumber production could fall by 2\u20134% in 2026, as the sector continues to be affected by the strong ruble, weak demand in export markets and lower domestic consumption.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99132,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n