Global oil prices moved sharply lower at the start of the week as renewed optimism surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran raised expectations of a possible agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
According to analysts at ING, Brent crude fell by around 5% in early Asian trading, dropping back below $100 per barrel following comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting progress had been made in negotiations.<\/p>\n
However, the bank cautioned that markets remain wary after previous rounds of talks failed to produce a lasting agreement. Trump later stated he was in no \"rush\" for a deal and that negotiations were not yet fully concluded, while Iranian media reported that key demands from Tehran remain unresolved.<\/p>\n
Despite ongoing tensions, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has continued at a measured pace. Iran reportedly stated that 33 commercial vessels transited the route over a 24-hour period during the weekend, including crude and LNG carriers.<\/p>\n
ING's latest market analysis also pointed to changing investor sentiment in oil markets. Speculators reduced their net long positions in ICE Brent by 10,517 lots during the latest reporting week, bringing total net longs to 335,288 lots. The move was largely driven by new short positions entering the market, signalling increasing expectations of a diplomatic resolution.<\/p>\n
At the same time, US oil producers appear to be responding to the elevated price environment. Data from Baker Hughes showed the US oil rig count increased by 10 to 425 active rigs last week, the largest weekly rise since February 2023 and the highest total since July 2025.<\/p>\n
Additional data from Primary Vision also indicated a rise in completion activity, as US exporters continue supplying international buyers seeking alternatives amid disruptions linked to the conflict.<\/p>\n
European gas markets also reacted to the prospect of easing geopolitical tensions. Dutch TTF natural gas prices reportedly fell around 6%, dropping below EUR46\/MWh. ING noted that lower European gas prices could weaken the continent's ability to attract LNG cargoes, particularly as the spread between Asian JKM and European TTF benchmarks widens.<\/p>\n
The bank added that EU gas storage levels currently stand at nearly 38% full, significantly below the five-year average of 52% for this time of year.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":98849,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-98848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n