{"id":98513,"date":"2026-04-22T05:08:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T05:08:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/us-lumber-demand-seen-falling-up-to-40-in-the-next-decades\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T05:08:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T05:08:12","slug":"us-lumber-demand-seen-falling-up-to-40-in-the-next-decades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-demand-seen-falling-up-to-40-in-the-next-decades\/","title":{"rendered":"US lumber demand seen falling up to 40% in the next decades"},"content":{"rendered":"

New research published in Forest Policy and Economics suggests US softwood lumber demand could decline by as much as 40% by 2070, with residential construction now the dominant factor shaping long-term consumption.<\/p>\n

The study, Revisiting U.S. Softwood Lumber Demand Projections: The Central Role of Residential Construction in Forest Sector Outlooks, by Craig Johnston, Jinggang Guo and Jeffrey P. Prestemon, finds that housing activity now carries significantly more weight than broader economic growth in determining lumber demand.<\/p>\n

According to the authors, residential construction is now roughly four times more important than GDP growth in driving US softwood lumber consumption. This marks a structural shift in how demand should be modelled and helps explain why earlier projections overstated future consumption.<\/p>\n

Previous versions of the Forest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM), which leaned heavily on macroeconomic growth, projected rising demand after 2015. The revised model, placing housing starts at the centre, instead shows a gradual decline since the 2008 financial crisis, with a further downward trend extending through to 2070 across all scenarios.<\/p>\n

The change is seen the increasing volatility and long-term moderation of US homebuilding. Housing starts peaked at 2.12 million units in 2005 before falling sharply to 526,000 in 2010. While activity has partially recovered since then, it has not returned to pre-crisis levels, and the model assumes structurally lower construction intensity over the coming decades.<\/p>\n

<\/a>
US softwood lumber consumption (left) and production (right) from 1990 to 2070. The earlier FOROM projection (blue dashed line), based on GDP growth, points to demand exceeding 100 million cubic metres by 2070. In contrast, the revised model (red dashed line), which centres on housing construction, shows demand declining to around 67 million cubic metres over the same period, more closely reflecting observed market trends. (Source: Johnston, Guo & Prestemon, 2026)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Under the most pessimistic scenario, US softwood lumber demand falls to around 60 million cubic metres by 2070, compared to an average of 84.3 million cubic metres over the 2000\u20132024 period. Even in more moderate scenarios, demand remains below recent levels, indicating limited long-term growth potential.<\/p>\n

In practical terms, this implies a structurally weaker baseline for the US lumber market. Demand growth is no longer assumed, and future cycles are likely to be driven more by housing fluctuations than by broad economic expansion.<\/p>\n

Regional impact concentrates in the US South<\/strong><\/p>\n

The impact is uneven across regions. The US South, which has been the core of American lumber production and consumption growth in recent decades, shows the largest contraction.<\/p>\n

Combined demand across the Southeast and South Central regions falls from 29.4 million cubic metres in 2020 to around 20.2 million cubic metres by 2050 under the steepest scenario. This represents a decline of nearly one-third and reflects the region\u2019s strong exposure to single-family housing construction.<\/p>\n

The Pacific Coast shows a more gradual decline, with demand falling from 27.9 million cubic metres in 2020 to 19.6 million cubic metres by 2070, a reduction of about 30%. The smaller drop reflects a more diversified demand structure and lower sensitivity to housing cycles.<\/p>\n

The study highlights that mortgage rates and affordability constraints play a larger role in the South, amplifying the impact of weaker construction activity on lumber demand.<\/p>\n

Export pressure builds for external suppliers<\/strong><\/p>\n

The projected slowdown in US demand has direct implications for international trade, particularly for Canada.<\/p>\n

Canadian producers remain heavily reliant on the US market, with exports historically concentrated in regions where demand is now expected to decline. As a result, the model suggests sustained pressure on export volumes over the long term.<\/p>\n

This comes at a time when global trade flows are already shifting. Canadian, Swedish and Finnish suppliers have increasingly redirected volumes toward Asian markets, particularly China, where supply gaps have emerged following reduced Russian exports.<\/p>\n

If US demand continues to weaken, this reorientation is likely to accelerate, reinforcing the importance of Asian markets as an alternative outlet for excess supply.<\/p>\n

Market outlook shifts from growth to adjustment<\/strong><\/p>\n

Across all five scenarios tested in the study, US softwood lumber demand remains below its 2024 level. The consistent downward trajectory suggests that the market is moving away from a growth phase toward a more mature and potentially contracting structure.<\/p>\n

The key conclusion is that long-term demand will depend less on general economic performance and more on the direction of residential construction. This makes the market more sensitive to interest rates, housing policy and demographic trends than in the past.<\/p>\n

In that context, the projected 40% decline by 2070 should not be seen as a short-term shock, but as a gradual structural adjustment in one of the world\u2019s largest lumber markets.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":98514,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-98513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS lumber demand seen falling up to 40% in the next decades - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-demand-seen-falling-up-to-40-in-the-next-decades\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US lumber demand seen falling up to 40% in the next decades - 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