Oil markets have turned volatile again, and the effects are feeding into timber.<\/p>\n
Brent crude fell from around $110 to $95 per barrel<\/strong> before recovering towards $100<\/strong>, following signals that talks with Iran could begin. The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off, with prices dropping quickly before stabilising.<\/p>\n The market is now questioning whether the move reflects a real easing of geopolitical risk or something more tactical. Some traders are framing it as \u201cTACO\u201d \u2014 Trump Always Chickens Out<\/em> \u2014 while others see it as an attempt to calm markets and buy time.<\/p>\n During the night of Tuesday, the price of North Sea oil climbed back again to around $100 per barrel<\/strong>, underlining how unstable the market remains.<\/p>\n At the same time, the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States is starting to disrupt shipping and energy flows.<\/p>\n Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up freight costs and insurance premiums, while forcing route changes and delays. For timber, that means higher transport costs and longer delivery times.<\/p>\n Energy prices have also risen. Oil has traded above $100 per barrel<\/strong>, while European gas prices jumped by around \u20ac30\/MWh within two weeks<\/strong>. Higher energy costs are feeding directly into production and logistics, increasing pressure on sawmills, panel producers and pulp mills.<\/p>\n The result is a squeeze: costs are rising, but demand remains weak.<\/p>\n European softwood exporters are exposed. Sweden, Finland, Germany and Austria rely on shipping routes through the Mediterranean and Suez into the Gulf. Higher freight and energy costs are eroding competitiveness and margins, while weaker industrial demand limits the ability to pass those costs on.<\/p>\n The Middle East, a key import market, is becoming less predictable. Slower construction activity, project delays and tighter logistics are starting to weigh on demand for imported timber. Disruptions to the flow of materials and equipment are already forcing adjustments to project timelines.<\/p>\n If disruption persists, exporters will redirect volumes to Europe, North Africa and Asia. That risks increasing supply in those markets and intensifying competition.<\/p>\n The timber trade has absorbed multiple shocks in recent years. This is another one, with energy, logistics and demand moving at the same time. The likely result is another shift in trade flows.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oil markets have turned volatile again, and the effects are feeding into timber. Brent crude fell from around $110 to $95 per barrel before recovering towards $100, following signals that talks with Iran could begin. The announcement triggered a sharp … Continue reading