{"id":89167,"date":"2025-08-12T07:26:44","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T07:26:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/nordic-forest-industry-faces-a-bleak-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:04:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:04:49","slug":"nordic-forest-industry-faces-a-bleak-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/nordic-forest-industry-faces-a-bleak-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Nordic forest industry faces a bleak outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>Finland\u2019s forest industry is facing a severe crisis as industrial giants shut down cardboard and paper mills amid soaring costs and weak demand, with ripple effects threatening Swedish mills as well, according to Handelsbanken analyst Christian Kopfer.<\/p>\n

On June 17, Finnish Mets\u00e4 Board closed its cardboard mill in central Tampere after 160 years, marking a symbolic moment for a sector battered by high supply, fierce competition, and depressed demand. The industry also contends with US tariffs that cloud export prospects.<\/p>\n

\"At the same time as the prices of the cardboard raw material itself have developed poorly, the price of forest raw material has risen to record levels. It has been a very bad combination,\" Kopfer said.<\/p>\n

Swedish mills face risks amid rising costs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Finnish forest companies, historically reliant on cheaper Russian timber, now import more from Sweden and the Baltics, pushing up regional timber prices. Kopfer warns this dynamic puts Swedish mills at risk.<\/p>\n

\"The cost situation for the Nordic forest industry must not be too high compared to its competitors. Because then it risks being eliminated. That is actually a danger,\" he said.<\/p>\n

Forest industry companies without their own timber resources, such as Mets\u00e4 and Billerud, are hit hardest. Swedish pulp producer Rottneros has also suffered steep losses, with shares down 68% this year, layoffs announced, and a SEK 300 million bailout raised.<\/p>\n

Forest-owning companies like Holmen, SCA, and Stora Enso are affected too, with no immediate relief in sight.<\/p>\n

\"The positive balance is still thin. It usually is when the economy is weak. But the difference is that the recession has been so prolonged this time, which is not normal,\" Kopfer noted.<\/p>\n

No clear buying opportunities, but some see value in Billerud<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asked about investment opportunities, Kopfer was cautious: \"No, it\u2019s difficult.\"<\/p>\n

In contrast, Placera analyst Otto Klaar recently recommended buying Billerud, despite expected weak near-term results.<\/p>\n

\"It looks tough for Billerud and the next quarter will probably be a disaster. Sooner or later, however, the situation will normalize and then today\u2019s valuation for Billerud looks very low,\" Klaar said.<\/p>\n

Billerud CEO Ivar Vatne has highlighted that US tariffs have \u201ccaused an escalated oversupply in the market,\u201d further pressuring prices.<\/p>\n

Kopfer added that competition from South American producers using cheaper short-fiber eucalyptus is increasing, challenging the Nordic industry\u2019s traditional advantage in long-fiber softwood products.<\/p>\n

\"Existentially threatened\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

Returns on capital tied up in cardboard production are currently too low to be sustainable, Kopfer said. While a few companies remain profitable, overall conditions are grim.<\/p>\n

The troubles extend beyond cardboard: Finnish paper giant UPM-Kymmene has announced multiple mill closures, and smaller sawmills in southern Sweden are also struggling with high timber prices.<\/p>\n

\"The sawmills in southern Sweden are absolutely not doing well. They pay the highest timber prices and are existentially threatened with these timber prices, I would say,\" Kopfer concluded.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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