{"id":88939,"date":"2025-06-06T06:41:45","date_gmt":"2025-06-06T06:41:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/u-s-lumber-prices-expected-to-climb-in-q3-as-canadian-duties-rise-tariff-threats-loom\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:04:24","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:04:24","slug":"u-s-lumber-prices-expected-to-climb-in-q3-as-canadian-duties-rise-tariff-threats-loom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/u-s-lumber-prices-expected-to-climb-in-q3-as-canadian-duties-rise-tariff-threats-loom\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. lumber prices expected to climb in Q3 as Canadian duties rise, tariff threats loom"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>U.S. lumber prices are set to rebound in the third quarter of 2025 after a sluggish spring, with higher Canadian duties expected in August and renewed uncertainty around potential tariffs on imported wood products.<\/p>\n

After a steep drop in prices between March and May, Western Spruce-Pine-Fir (W-SPF) 2\u00d74 random lengths fell nearly 25% to $437 per thousand board feet (Mbf) in early May before inching up to $450\/Mbf by month\u2019s end. Eastern SPF (E-SPF) prices, delivered to the Great Lakes region, declined 14% over the same period, reaching $545\/Mbf.<\/p>\n

W-SPF prices briefly traded below Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) in mid-May but had recovered to a $34\/Mbf premium by the end of the month, reversing a $30\/Mbf discount. Despite signs that SPF prices may have bottomed out, SYP prices fell 11% in the second half of May, deepening concerns about oversupply.<\/p>\n

The lumber market had rallied early in 2025 on expectations of a 25% tariff on Canadian lumber, but with those tariffs suspended since April, underlying market weakness has come to the fore. U.S. housing starts are under pressure, interest rates remain high\u2014with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.89%\u2014and consumer sentiment has dipped amid broader trade tensions.<\/p>\n

New duties on Canadian lumber are still in the pipeline. Import tariffs are expected to rise from 14.4% to approximately 34.5% in August, a move likely to force Canadian producers to increase lumber prices by as much as 20% to remain viable. That adjustment, combined with the risk of additional U.S. tariffs on wood and wood-derived products under a Section 232 trade investigation, could push U.S. lumber prices higher heading into fall.<\/p>\n

The United States imports around 15 billion board feet of lumber annually, or about 30% of domestic consumption. Canadian lumber alone accounts for roughly 24%. While some argue that domestic producers could fill the gap, analysts suggest that boosting U.S. sawmill capacity would be neither fast nor easy. Increasing production by even 2\u20134% would require new mills, expanded harvesting, and a larger workforce\u2014at a time when U.S. manufacturing faces a shortage of nearly half a million workers.<\/p>\n

A recent push by the U.S. administration to increase logging on National Forest lands is unlikely to significantly boost log supply in the near term, given logistical and workforce constraints.<\/p>\n

In the South, SYP production already surpasses Canada\u2019s total lumber output, giving it outsized influence over pricing. Yet roughly one-third of U.S. Southern lumber capacity is operated by Canadian firms, which could benefit from higher prices stemming from trade restrictions on Canadian lumber.<\/p>\n

European exporters are also watching the U.S. trade investigation closely. With log prices climbing in key European sawmilling regions, any tariff imposed on EU-origin lumber would make it even harder for European suppliers to compete in the U.S. market.<\/p>\n

Homebuilders and renovation contractors are bracing for more price volatility. While the full effect of any tariffs or duty hikes on retail lumber prices remains uncertain, industry estimates suggest that most of the added costs are likely to be passed on to consumers.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. lumber prices are set to rebound in the third quarter of 2025 after a sluggish spring, with higher Canadian duties expected in August and renewed uncertainty around potential tariffs on imported wood products. After a steep drop in prices … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nU.S. lumber prices expected to climb in Q3 as Canadian duties rise, tariff threats loom - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/u-s-lumber-prices-expected-to-climb-in-q3-as-canadian-duties-rise-tariff-threats-loom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"U.S. lumber prices expected to climb in Q3 as Canadian duties rise, tariff threats loom - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"U.S. lumber prices are set to rebound in the third quarter of 2025 after a sluggish spring, with higher Canadian duties expected in August and renewed uncertainty around potential tariffs on imported wood products. 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