{"id":88856,"date":"2025-05-16T06:34:34","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T06:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/nzs-timber-industry-braces-for-tough-times-as-chinas-construction-slump-continues-2\/"},"modified":"2025-05-16T06:34:34","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T06:34:34","slug":"nzs-timber-industry-braces-for-tough-times-as-chinas-construction-slump-continues-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/nzs-timber-industry-braces-for-tough-times-as-chinas-construction-slump-continues-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NZ\u2019s timber industry braces for tough times as China\u2019s construction slump continues"},"content":{"rendered":"

The construction slump in China is sending shockwaves through New Zealand\u2019s timber trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

China was by far the largest importer of New Zealand logs \u2013 taking 92% in the year to June 2023 \u2013 but has been \u201cthrottling back\u201d since its property market began contracting in 2021, said Rotorua-based forestry consultant Jeff Tombleson. Mega-infrastructure projects such as new cities, ports and railways are nearing completion, and most NZ timber exported to China is used for concrete-casting in multi-storey construction.<\/p>\n

Since 2019, export log prices have occasionally dipped below NZ$100\/m\u00b3 (about \u20ac56) from an average of NZ$132\/m\u00b3 (\u20ac74). At lower prices, harvesting is not viable for most small forest owners, especially in the absence of local demand.<\/p>\n

In his 50-year career, Tombleson said he hasn\u2019t seen such a bleak outlook. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) report noted a 10.2% drop in Chinese property investment in the first seven months of 2024. Although sentiment improved in October, real estate investment and new builds fell at the fastest annual rate.<\/p>\n

The MFAT report said structural change in China\u2019s property sector has reduced activity in construction and furniture-making \u2013 both key buyers of NZ logs. China\u2019s total log imports fell 36% between 2021 and 2023, from NZ$16.4 billion (\u20ac9.2 billion) to NZ$10.3 billion (\u20ac5.8 billion). Demand is expected to stabilise, but at lower levels than the 2020\u20132021 peak.<\/p>\n

Tombleson said NZ logs initially went to Japan and Korea before China took over with unmatched scale. Forecasts of a future downturn in China have arrived early, he added.<\/p>\n

There is, however, growing domestic demand from firms like dairy giant Fonterra, which is replacing fossil fuels with wood pellets and chips to power boilers. Still, Tombleson warned this demand won't offset the loss of high Chinese log prices needed to sustain small forest owners, most of whom are farmers.<\/p>\n

Fellow consultant Dennis Neilson, who helped initiate the China log trade in 1985, echoed the concerns. Following a \u201cbuilding frenzy\u201d starting in 2008\u20132009, the past four years have brought a rapid collapse, due to oversupply, company closures, and the Covid pandemic. Neilson, a frequent visitor to China, admitted the downturn was sharper than expected. \u201cIt\u2019s likely to be subdued for several years.\u201d<\/p>\n

US tariffs<\/strong><\/p>\n

While China isn\u2019t a major buyer of NZ sawn timber, the US \u2013 the top destination \u2013 poses its own risk. New Zealand Timber Industry Federation CEO Jeff Ilott said proposed tariffs on NZ sawn timber exports to the US are expected later this year: \u201cWe will wait and see.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ilott noted that sawn timber exports to China rose from 210,000 to 250,000 m\u00b3 in the year to December, at NZ$331\/m\u00b3 (\u20ac186), but this still doesn\u2019t represent strong returns for the country\u2019s billion-dollar sawmill sector.<\/p>\n

Marcus Musson of the NZ Forest Owners\u2019 Association said it\u2019s not all doom and gloom, with supply and demand broadly in balance. Chinese market fluctuations are not unusual, and some analysts expect a construction rebound in 2025. The Chinese furniture sector \u2013 which processes NZ logs for US export \u2013 remains strong, though potential US tariffs have added uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Domestically, Musson called for greater investment in biofuel initiatives and mass timber construction across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The construction slump in China is sending shockwaves through New Zealand\u2019s timber trade. China was by far the largest importer of New Zealand logs \u2013 taking 92% in the year to June 2023 \u2013 but has been \u201cthrottling back\u201d since … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNZ\u2019s timber industry braces for tough times as China\u2019s construction slump continues - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/nzs-timber-industry-braces-for-tough-times-as-chinas-construction-slump-continues-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NZ\u2019s timber industry braces for tough times as China\u2019s construction slump continues - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The construction slump in China is sending shockwaves through New Zealand\u2019s timber trade. 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