{"id":88775,"date":"2025-04-16T06:34:59","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T06:34:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/tariffs-and-sawmill-closures-reshape-north-american-lumber-industry\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:04:05","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:04:05","slug":"tariffs-and-sawmill-closures-reshape-north-american-lumber-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/tariffs-and-sawmill-closures-reshape-north-american-lumber-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariffs and sawmill closures reshape North American lumber industry"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>North American lumber producers are bracing for one of the most disruptive trade environments in decades, as permanent capacity shutdowns, rising Canadian export duties, and potential Section 232 tariffs converge. The uncertainty comes as the market continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, with consumption still roughly 9% below COVID-era peaks.<\/p>\n

The sector is undergoing a fundamental shift in its cost structure. Even without the most extreme tariff scenarios materializing, industry analysts suggest the long-term impact may undo decades of tariff reductions achieved through global trade liberalization.<\/p>\n

Further downside risks loom if broader economic conditions deteriorate. A recession coupled with persistent high mortgage rates could trigger prolonged housing demand weakness. Unlike past downturns, countercyclical monetary policy may not ease borrowing costs if retaliatory actions from trading partners, such as China, push bond yields higher. In such a scenario, elevated 30-year mortgage rates would compound the sector\u2019s difficulties by curbing residential construction \u2013 a key driver of lumber demand.<\/p>\n

Capacity closures mount<\/strong><\/p>\n

The industry has undergone an unprecedented level of rationalization, with an estimated 5 billion board feet (BBF) of indefinite or permanent sawmill closures during 2023\u20132024. While 2023 shutdowns were concentrated in British Columbia, closures in 2024 \u2013 totaling 3.2 BBF \u2013 were more widespread, affecting operations in BC, the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and the U.S. South.<\/p>\n

British Columbia has seen the most dramatic structural decline. Annual production has nearly halved since 2017, from about 13 BBF to around 7 BBF. The drop is attributed to reduced timber availability following the mountain pine beetle epidemic, tighter environmental protections for old-growth forests, and the ongoing impact of U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties.<\/p>\n

In 2024, for the first time since 2020, North America saw a net reduction in operable sawmill capacity, despite continued expansion in the U.S. South. Further net reductions are projected in 2025, with a smaller decline expected in 2026, as the supply side gradually adjusts to evolving market conditions.<\/p>\n

Multiple layers of trade pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

The outlook for the North American lumber sector is further clouded by the looming threat of overlapping trade barriers. A potential revival of \u201cTrump Tariffs 2.0\u201d would introduce Section 232 national security tariffs and possibly new restrictions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), adding to the already steep Canadian lumber duties.<\/p>\n

These developments, individually and collectively, are expected to reshape North American supply chains, affect export competitiveness, and influence domestic pricing across the wood products sector.<\/p>\n

Industry participants are now preparing for what could be the most challenging trade landscape since the protectionist Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North American lumber producers are bracing for one of the most disruptive trade environments in decades, as permanent capacity shutdowns, rising Canadian export duties, and potential Section 232 tariffs converge. 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