{"id":88770,"date":"2025-04-15T05:58:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T05:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/forecast-scarce-supply-to-boost-finlands-lumber-exports-and-prices\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:30:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:30:18","slug":"forecast-scarce-supply-to-boost-finlands-lumber-exports-and-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/forecast-scarce-supply-to-boost-finlands-lumber-exports-and-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: Scarce supply to boost Finland\u2019s lumber exports and prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

The value of Finnish forest industry exports will grow both this year and next. The main driver is cardboard. Lumber exports will also grow, as construction in Europe is no longer declining and the supply of lumber globally is limited. <\/span>However, US tariffs are disrupting world trade, hindering exports and may increase competition in market areas that are important to Finland .<\/p>\n

\"Despite the tariffs, exports of forest industry products to the United States will continue because the country needs them. However, tariffs increase the prices of the products and reduce their consumption. Therefore, Finnish forest industry exports to the United States will decrease to some extent. Although the outlook is very uncertain,\" says Marjo Maidell, forest economist at Pellervo Economic Research PTT.<\/p>\n

Tariffs can also have significant impacts on global trade flows of forest products. For example, Canada, one of the world's leading producers of softwood pulp and lumber, has exported a significant portion of its production to the United States.<\/p>\n

The value of Finnish forest industry exports will increase by five percent this year. The value of exports of all main products will increase, except for paper and plywood. This year, the value of exports will increase in particular for paperboard, as Stora Enso's Oulu consumer packaging board line starts up.<\/p>\n

Next year, the value of forest industry exports will grow by seven percent, and growth will be seen in all main products. However, there is significant uncertainty about the development of demand for forest industry products next year due to international trade tensions.<\/p>\n

Scarce supply boosts lumber exports and prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

The decline in the key interest rate has had a positive impact on housing demand in Europe, which is helping to halt the decline in construction. Due to the US tariff decisions, growth will not yet be seen in Europe this year, so demand for lumber will not increase much. The difficulties in the real estate sector in China also continue, and construction growth in the US is stalling due to the tariffs.<\/p>\n

Currently, the supply of lumber is limited globally. Sawmills in Sweden are suffering from a wood shortage, and in Central Europe, wood availability has weakened as less damaged wood enters the market than before. In addition, forest damage has reduced logging opportunities in Central Europe and Canada. Finnish lumber exports will grow by two percent this year and the export price will increase by four percent.<\/p>\n

\"The outlook for lumber is affected by the expected tariffs, which will reduce exports to the United States to some extent. As a result, the supply of lumber in Europe may increase, which will keep the price increase moderate. In addition, exports of Canadian lumber to Asia may increase, which would tighten competition in this important market area for Finland,\" says forest economist Matti Valonen.<\/p>\n

This year, plywood exports will grow by two percent as the decline in construction finally stops in Europe. Import duties on plywood are cutting Finnish exports, as last year nine percent of Finnish plywood was exported to the United States. As a result, new markets for plywood will have to be found.<\/p>\n

Tariffs will hit paper exports in particular<\/strong><\/p>\n

The paperboard market is plagued by sluggish economic growth and overcapacity in many market areas. Imports and exports are still growing, driven by the start-up of Stora Enso's production line. US import tariffs are hitting Finnish exports, as the US accounted for less than a tenth of paperboard exports last year. As a result, layoffs at paperboard machines are likely to continue this year.<\/p>\n

In paper, Europe's weak economic development and steadily declining consumption will keep demand subdued this year. Tariffs will pose their own challenges, as the United States accounted for almost a fifth of Finland's total paper exports last year. If Canadian paper starts to be diverted to Europe instead of the United States, it will further increase supply.<\/p>\n

This year, exports will decrease, but next year we will see a slight increase due to the recovering economic situation in Europe. The average export price of paper will also continue to decline, as paper exported to the United States has been of higher value than average.<\/p>\n

Pulp exports will increase this year due to the start-up of new capacity and the assumption that the long-term equipment failures experienced last year will not occur. The outlook for pulp will improve next year as the economy recovers. However, uncertainty is being introduced to the market by the trade war between the United States and Canada, which is disrupting softwood pulp trade flows. The threat is that more Canadian pulp will be directed to China, for example, which is the most important export country for Finnish pulp, instead of the United States.<\/p>\n

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\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Export markets<\/span><\/th>\n<\/td>\n2025e<\/span><\/th>\n2026e<\/span><\/th>\nWood market<\/span><\/th>\n2025e<\/span><\/th>\n2026e<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\n<\/td>\n<\/th>\n<\/th>\n<\/th>\n<\/th>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Paper<\/td>\nnumber<\/td>\n-1%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\nUse of wood in the forest industry<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nprice<\/td>\n-2%<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carton<\/td>\nnumber<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\nMarket research<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nprice<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mass<\/td>\nnumber<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\nTimber stores in private forests<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nprice<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\nNominal price of wood\u00b2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cherestea<\/td>\nnumber<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\nlog<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nprice<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\nfiber<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Plywood<\/td>\nnumber<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\nGross stumpage revenue from private forests<\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nprice<\/td>\n-2%<\/td>\n-1%<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The value of Finnish forest industry exports will grow both this year and next. The main driver is cardboard. Lumber exports will also grow, as construction in Europe is no longer declining and the supply of lumber globally is limited. … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast: Scarce supply to boost Finland\u2019s lumber exports and prices - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/forecast-scarce-supply-to-boost-finlands-lumber-exports-and-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast: Scarce supply to boost Finland\u2019s lumber exports and prices - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The value of Finnish forest industry exports will grow both this year and next. 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