{"id":88698,"date":"2025-03-25T05:41:37","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T05:41:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/chinas-real-estate-market-shows-early-signs-of-stabilization\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:30:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:30:10","slug":"chinas-real-estate-market-shows-early-signs-of-stabilization","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/chinas-real-estate-market-shows-early-signs-of-stabilization\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s real estate market shows early signs of stabilization"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>UBS analysts on Wednesday became the latest to raise expectations that China\u2019s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,\u201d John Lam, head of Asia-Pacific property and Greater China property research at UBS Investment Bank, told reporters Wednesday. That\u2019s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.<\/p>\n

\u201cOf course these signals aren\u2019t nationwide, and may be local,\u201d Lam said. \u201cBut compared to the past, it should be more positive.\u201d<\/p>\n

One indicator is improving sales in China\u2019s largest cities. Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday, according to CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information. The category is typically called \u201csecondary home sales\u201d in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of newly built apartment homes.<\/p>\n

Home prices to stabilize in 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

UBS now predicts China\u2019s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total by 2026.<\/p>\n

UBS looked at four factors \u2014 low inventory, a rising premium on land prices, rising secondary sales and increasing rental prices \u2014 that had indicated a property market inflection point between 2014 and 2015. As of February 2025, only rental prices had yet to see an improvement, the firm said.<\/p>\n

Chinese policymakers in September called for a \u201chalt\u201d in the decline of the property sector, which accounts for the majority of household wealth and just a few years earlier contributed to more than a quarter of the economy. Major developers such as Evergrande have defaulted on their debt, while property sales have nearly halved since 2021 to around 9.7 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) last year, according to S&P Global Ratings.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s property market began its recent decline in late 2020 after Beijing started cracking down on developers\u2019 high reliance on debt for growth. Despite a flurry of central and local government measures in the last year and a half, the real estate slump has persisted.<\/p>\n

Bottom could be reached this year<\/strong><\/p>\n

But after more forceful stimulus was announced late last year, analysts started to predict a bottom could come as soon as later this year.<\/p>\n

Back in January, S&P Global Ratings reiterated its view that China\u2019s real estate market would stabilize toward the second half of 2025. The analysts expected \u201csurging secondary sales\u201d were a leading indicator on primary sales.<\/p>\n

Then, in late February, Macquarie\u2019s Chief China Economist Larry Hu pointed to three \u201cpositive\u201d signals that could support a bottom in home prices this year. He noted that in addition to the policy push, unsold housing inventory levels have fallen to the lowest since 2011 and a narrowing gap between mortgage rates and rental yields could encourage homebuyers to buy rather than rent.<\/p>\n

But he said in an email this week that what China\u2019s housing market still needs is financial support channeled through the central bank.<\/p>\n

HSBC\u2019s Head of Asia Real Estate Michelle Kwok in February said there are \u201c10 signs\u201d the Chinese real estate market has bottomed. The list included recovery in new home sales, home prices and foreign investment participation.<\/p>\n

In addition to state-owned enterprises, \u201cforeign capital has started to invest in the property market,\u201d the report said, noting \u201ctwo Singaporean developers\/investment funds acquired land sites in Shanghai on 20 February.\u201d<\/p>\n

Foreign investors are also looking for alternative ways to enter China\u2019s property market after Beijing announced a push for affordable rental housing.<\/p>\n

Invesco in late February announced its real estate investment arm formed a joint venture with Ziroom, a Chinese company known locally for its standardized, modern-style apartment rentals.<\/p>\n

The joint venture, called Izara Holdings, plans to initially invest 1.2 billion yuan (about $160 million) in a 1,500-room rental housing development near one of the sites for Beijing\u2019s Winter Olympics, with a targeted opening of 2027.<\/p>\n

The units will likely be available for rent around 5,000 yuan a month, Calvin Chou, head of Asia-Pacific, Invesco Real Estate, said in an interview. He said developers\u2019 financial difficulties have created a market gap, and he expects the joint venture to invest in at least one or two more projects in China this year.<\/p>\n

Ziroom\u2019s database allows the company to quickly assess regional factors for choosing new developments, Ziroom Asset Management CEO Meng Yue said in a statement, adding the venture plans to eventually expand overseas.<\/p>\n

Not out of the woods<\/strong><\/p>\n

However, data still reflects a struggling property market. Real estate investment still fell by nearly 10% in the first two months of the year, according to a raft of official economic figures released Monday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe property sector is especially concerning as key data are in the negative territory across the board, with new home starts growth worsening to -29.6% in January-February from -25.5% in Q4 2024,\u201d Nomura\u2019s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s long been our view that without a real stabilization of the property sector there will be no real recovery of the Chinese economy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Improved secondary sales also don\u2019t directly benefit developers, whose revenue previously came from primary sales. S&P Global Ratings this month put Vanke on credit watch, and downgraded its rating on Longfor. Both developers were among the largest in the market.<\/p>\n

\u201cGenerally China\u2019s [recent] policy efforts have been quite extensive,\u201d Sky Kwah, head of investment advisory at Raffles Family Office, said in an interview earlier this month.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe key at this point in time is execution. The sector recovery relies on consumer confidence,\u201d he said, adding that \u201cyou do not reverse confidence overnight. Confidence has to be earned.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UBS analysts on Wednesday became the latest to raise expectations that China\u2019s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing. \u201cAfter four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,\u201d John Lam, … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends","topic-forestry","topic-lumber","topic-sawmilling","topic-wood-construction","topic-wood-products","area-china","area-global"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s real estate market shows early signs of stabilization - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/chinas-real-estate-market-shows-early-signs-of-stabilization\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s real estate market shows early signs of stabilization - 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