{"id":88684,"date":"2025-03-20T07:22:14","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T07:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/u-s-softwood-log-prices-poised-for-recovery-after-years-of-decline\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:03:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:03:55","slug":"u-s-softwood-log-prices-poised-for-recovery-after-years-of-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/u-s-softwood-log-prices-poised-for-recovery-after-years-of-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. softwood log prices poised for recovery after years of decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>U.S. lumber prices are poised for an upward shift in 2025, driven by increased housing starts and renewed investment in residential construction. Although the market has faced subdued conditions in recent years, demand fundamentals are expected to strengthen, particularly in the softwood sawlog sector.<\/p>\n

The U.S. housing market remains a key driver of lumber demand, with residential construction accounting for approximately 70% of lumber consumption. Within this segment, repair and remodeling (R&R) comprises around 40%, while new home construction accounts for 30%.<\/p>\n

Total U.S. housing starts are projected to grow by 4% in 2025, with R&R activity increasing by 1%. This uptick is expected to translate into stronger demand for lumber and, subsequently, higher timber prices. Following a period of market correction, sawlog prices are anticipated to rise, particularly in regions where supply constraints are emerging.<\/p>\n

After a prolonged downturn, softwood sawlog prices are expected to increase over the forecast period. Lumber prices, which have remained under pressure, are projected to begin recovering, adding upward momentum to log markets. Supply-side factors will also contribute to price gains, as availability tightens in key softwood-producing regions outside of the U.S. South.<\/p>\n

The industry has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with 2024 marking a period of relative stability but low pricing. Over the past two years, the softwood lumber sector has seen a reduction of more than 5 billion board feet (BBF) in production capacity, reflecting a prolonged period of market weakness. As supply adjusts to changing demand dynamics, pricing is expected to firm.<\/p>\n

Delivered log prices in the U.S. West have been on a downward trend since peaking in 2022. In 2025, this trajectory is expected to reverse, with log prices rebounding and holding steady through the five-year forecast period. By 2028, delivered log prices are projected to exceed $975 per thousand board feet (MBF), surpassing 2022 levels.<\/p>\n

The anticipated increase in log prices aligns with expectations for higher lumber prices and tightening timber supply. Factors contributing to reduced availability include conversions of operable timberland to other uses, expansion of carbon sequestration projects, and wildfire damage to forested areas. In addition, regulatory changes affecting federal timberlands could influence future supply trends.<\/p>\n

In contrast to the strengthening log markets in the West, softwood sawlog prices in the U.S. South are expected to continue their downward trend. Despite an anticipated recovery in Southern pine lumber prices, sawlog values are likely to decline further due to abundant inventory levels.<\/p>\n

Since 2008, softwood sawlog growth in the South has outpaced harvest rates, leading to a steady increase in standing timber inventories. This oversupply has exerted persistent downward pressure on prices, a trend that is expected to persist into 2025. Even as lumber demand stabilizes, Southern pine sawlog prices are unlikely to see significant gains due to ongoing inventory accumulation and lagging harvest activity.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. lumber prices are poised for an upward shift in 2025, driven by increased housing starts and renewed investment in residential construction. 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