{"id":88449,"date":"2025-01-17T10:36:39","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T10:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/nordic-softwood-lumber-production-faces-continued-pressures-gradual-recovery-expected-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:03:27","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:03:27","slug":"nordic-softwood-lumber-production-faces-continued-pressures-gradual-recovery-expected-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/nordic-softwood-lumber-production-faces-continued-pressures-gradual-recovery-expected-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Nordic softwood lumber production faces continued pressures, gradual recovery expected in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Softwood lumber production in the Nordic region has continued its downward trajectory in 2024. Sweden and Finland, responsible for a combined export volume exceeding 150 million cubic meters between 2017 and 2023, have both reduced output as demand falters<\/span>. The European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS) forecasts that European lumber production for 2024 will be 12% lower than its peak in 2021, reflecting broader challenges in the global timber trade.<\/p>\n

Production cuts amid weakened demand<\/h3>\n

Sweden, the world\u2019s third-largest softwood lumber exporter, shipped 14 million cubic meters of lumber in 2023, while Finland produced an estimated 10.4 million cubic meters, with exports accounting for 80% of the total. Both nations have been forced to adjust production in response to subdued activity in key markets, including China and the U.S.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s slower-than-expected economic recovery has weighed heavily on Nordic exports. Analysts report that Swedish and Finnish forestry companies have had to revise fourth-quarter expectations downward as Chinese orders remain weak. While there are early indications of stabilization, industry observers caution that any recovery will be gradual.<\/p>\n

Raw material costs squeeze profitability<\/h3>\n

Nordic sawmills are grappling with record-high log prices, which have eroded profitability despite some improvement in export prices. Swedish softwood lumber export prices rose by 8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, while Finland saw a 5% increase over the same period. However, these gains have not been sufficient to offset soaring raw material costs.<\/p>\n

Gross margins for sawmills in both Sweden and Finland are now significantly lower than in 2022. According to WoodMarket Prices, these financial pressures are pushing many producers to operate at unsustainable levels, particularly in the face of ongoing market uncertainties.<\/p>\n

Regional and global market dynamics<\/h3>\n

The Nordic region has historically benefited from stable demand in export markets like Japan and the U.S., but current conditions present a mixed outlook.<\/p>\n

In Japan, pro-wood government policies and growing interest in engineered wood and mass timber construction are bolstering demand, offering some relief for Nordic exporters. In contrast, the U.S. market remains uncertain. While declining lumber production in western North America could create opportunities for European suppliers, potential policy shifts under the incoming U.S. administration, including tariffs or reduced construction incentives, could limit growth prospects.<\/p>\n

Analysts predict gradual stabilization in 2025<\/h3>\n

Despite the current pressures, analysts are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for 2025. Oskar Lindstr\u00f6m of Danske Bank describes the present situation as the lowest point of the economic cycle, with potential improvements expected later in the year as supply and demand move closer to equilibrium.<\/p>\n

Johannes Grunselius of DNB predicts price increases for both sawn timber and pulp in 2025, driven by unsustainable margins and the anticipated resolution of the Chinese order freeze. Meanwhile, Ola S\u00f6dermark of Kepler Cheuvreux notes that while the market may be nearing its trough, a strong recovery is unlikely in the immediate term.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Softwood lumber production in the Nordic region has continued its downward trajectory in 2024. Sweden and Finland, responsible for a combined export volume exceeding 150 million cubic meters between 2017 and 2023, have both reduced output as demand falters. 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