{"id":88302,"date":"2024-11-14T08:50:05","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T08:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/where-is-the-oak-market-heading-in-france\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:03:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:03:09","slug":"where-is-the-oak-market-heading-in-france","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/where-is-the-oak-market-heading-in-france\/","title":{"rendered":"Where is the oak market heading in France?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>The era of frenzied demand for oak in France is over, as concluded by most professionals following the autumn sales of state-owned and communal forests managed by France's National Forest Office (ONF). Fewer bids, more unsold lots, and declining prices for the second consecutive year confirm a well-established trend: the two booming years of 2021 and 2022 are behind us, and the global economic slowdown that began in 2023 has worsened throughout 2024. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025, estimating that by the end of this decade, annual average growth could be one percentage point lower than during 2009-2019, potentially leading to a decline in living standards.<\/p>\n

The situation is especially concerning in China: real estate collapse and systemic financial risks, youth unemployment, manufacturing overcapacity, competition from neighboring countries with lower production costs (Vietnam, Thailand), and a lack of confidence among foreign investors. China, heavily reliant on exports, faces decreasing global demand, while the U.S. and Europe consider strengthening protectionist measures. Domestically, falling household purchasing power has led to a decline in demand, with deflation risks looming. Some observers wonder if the Chinese model has reached its limits.<\/p>\n

The U.S. economy, on the other hand, is seeking new momentum, awaiting the direction of the new Trump administration and its impact on global trade. Europe isn\u2019t faring much better, especially in Germany, which failed to recover growth in 2024 after the 2023 recession. France is also struggling, with a sluggish economy and political instability discouraging investment. However, for the forestry and wood industry, the main concern isn\u2019t political intricacies: it\u2019s the construction sector that is struggling. Over the past year, all construction indicators have turned red: housing permits have fallen by 9.5% in one year, and new starts are down by 19.9%.<\/p>\n

The stagnation in construction demand is impacting softwoods, and oak is now affected by the global and domestic context. China\u2019s absence has eased log purchases, but this hasn\u2019t necessarily benefited French sawmills, especially those exporting to Chinese industries currently saturated with material. Other markets haven't been able to compensate for the drop in Asian demand. Flooring remains at very low levels (-30% to -40% in sales over two years), while framing, sleepers, and landscaping timbers are also struggling. Declining consumer purchasing power no longer aligns with the high cost of oak, and reduced public orders further darken the outlook.<\/p>\n

A new development this autumn could have a major impact on oak: the cooperage sector is experiencing a drop in demand. According to the F\u00e9d\u00e9ration des Tonneliers de France (FTF), sales of French oak barrels declined by 6% in volume over the past fiscal year. \u201cThis decline is due to exports, while sales in France remained stable,\u201d says FTF president Magdeleine Allaume. Exports represent 67% of the sector's total turnover. The outlook for the coming season is not optimistic.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a bit early to forecast, but 2025 will likely be worse than 2024,\u201d says Jean-Luc Sylvain, former president of FTF and head of the Sylvain Family holding, which owns three cooperages, two stave mills, and a vineyard, producing 40,000 barrels and 300 large containers per year. According to Sylvain, demand for barrels will decline in France due to adverse climate conditions. While the U.S. market for wine and spirits consumption is relatively stable, the southern hemisphere is experiencing a downturn, as are China and Spain.<\/p>\n

Global wine demand has structurally declined in recent years: the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the market, there\u2019s a shift to other beverages, inflation, rising costs (maritime freight prices surged, and bottle prices have risen by 15% in two years in the U.S.), and reduced consumer purchasing power. \u201cChinese buyers, who once represented 30% of Bordeaux sales, are no longer purchasing, and new entry taxes hit Cognac imports,\u201d notes Sylvain. Under these conditions, it\u2019s not surprising that vineyards are being uprooted in Bordeaux, Australia, Chile, and even the U.S.<\/p>\n

As barrel prices have increased in recent years, global demand has contracted. Cooperages are concerned, especially as raw material costs remain historically high. \u201cTwo years ago, premium oak logs sold for \u20ac800\/m\u00b3 to \u20ac1,000\/m\u00b3 in state forests, but this spring, the same logs were selling for over \u20ac1,600\/m\u00b3,\u201d Sylvain notes.<\/p>\n

The surge in oak prices over recent years (+40% on average across all categories from 2018 to 2023) was largely driven by increased demand from cooperages. At the recent autumn public auctions, oak prices fell by an average of 20% over one year, but prices remain relatively high given the state of the economy. The primary reason is scarcity.<\/p>\n

Two factors contribute to this phenomenon. First, unfavorable weather conditions have hindered logging. \u201cRain throughout 2024 severely disrupted timber extraction from forests, leading to a general shortage of material, forcing buyers without precautionary stocks to secure supplies at prices disconnected from market reality,\u201d says David Roy, director of DSHWood France. However, he believes that sales, not purchases, will be the key focus in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Secondly, the high reserve prices set at public auctions maintain artificially high prices unrelated to market conditions. \u201cAt the October 15, 2024, auction in C\u00e9rilly, the ONF withdrew one-third of the lots listed, many at double the highest bid,\u201d Sylvain laments. This seller retention strategy cannot last indefinitely, so we can expect a more substantial decline in oak prices in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Oak prices in France continue to decline<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Unit Volume (m\u00b3)<\/th>\n3Q 2018<\/th>\n3Q 2020<\/th>\n3Q 2021<\/th>\n3Q 2022<\/th>\n3Q 2023<\/th>\n3Q 2024<\/th>\n1-Year Change<\/th>\n2-Year Change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1.5 m\u00b3<\/td>\n150<\/td>\n102<\/td>\n136<\/td>\n200<\/td>\n158<\/td>\n190<\/td>\n+20%<\/td>\n-5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 m\u00b3<\/td>\n204<\/td>\n151<\/td>\n310<\/td>\n272<\/td>\n232<\/td>\n218<\/td>\n-6%<\/td>\n-19.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.5 m\u00b3<\/td>\n245<\/td>\n188<\/td>\n261<\/td>\n332<\/td>\n289<\/td>\n250<\/td>\n-13.5%<\/td>\n-24.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 m\u00b3<\/td>\n279<\/td>\n218<\/td>\n304<\/td>\n380<\/td>\n336<\/td>\n287<\/td>\n-14.6%<\/td>\n-24.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.5 m\u00b3<\/td>\n308<\/td>\n243<\/td>\n343<\/td>\n415<\/td>\n378<\/td>\n329<\/td>\n-13%<\/td>\n-20.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 m\u00b3<\/td>\n334<\/td>\n266<\/td>\n376<\/td>\n450<\/td>\n409<\/td>\n377<\/td>\n-7.8%<\/td>\n-16.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4.5 m\u00b3<\/td>\n356<\/td>\n286<\/td>\n403<\/td>\n480<\/td>\n439<\/td>\n433<\/td>\n-1.4%<\/td>\n-9.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The era of frenzied demand for oak in France is over, as concluded by most professionals following the autumn sales of state-owned and communal forests managed by France’s National Forest Office (ONF). Fewer bids, more unsold lots, and declining prices … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":83829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhere is the oak market heading in France? - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/where-is-the-oak-market-heading-in-france\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Where is the oak market heading in France? - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The era of frenzied demand for oak in France is over, as concluded by most professionals following the autumn sales of state-owned and communal forests managed by France's National Forest Office (ONF). 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