{"id":88190,"date":"2024-10-23T06:53:12","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T06:53:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/isc-2024-softwood-lumber-production-in-europe-expected-to-rise-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:03:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:03:00","slug":"isc-2024-softwood-lumber-production-in-europe-expected-to-rise-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2024-softwood-lumber-production-in-europe-expected-to-rise-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"ISC 2024: Softwood lumber production in Europe expected to rise in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>The 72nd International Softwood Conference took place in the picturesque town of Taormina, Italy, from October 16-18, 2024. The event, attended by over 200 delegates from across the globe, highlighted the complex challenges facing the industry, but also provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming years.<\/p>\n

Thanks to the efforts of Federlegno Arredo and its president, Claudio Feltrin, as well as Fedecomlegno's Alessandro Calcaterra and Massimo Micali from Agelegno, the conference was a success. The event was overseen by Keith Fryer from the UK, with coordination between the EOS and ETTF federations.<\/p>\n

Mixed economic signals for the EU<\/strong><\/p>\n

The conference opened with an analysis of the EU macroeconomic situation by economist Marco Fortis. Germany, the EU's largest economy, is experiencing a structural downturn driven by rising energy costs and population decline. These issues are expected to continue affecting growth in Germany, with broader implications for northern and eastern Europe.<\/p>\n

However, there are positive signs on the horizon. Interest rates are expected to decline in 2025, offering some relief to the economy, which may help spur demand across several sectors.<\/p>\n

Construction industry and softwood market<\/strong><\/p>\n

The construction industry in Europe remains stagnant, with Germany seeing the sharpest decline in building activity. Housing starts and building permits in Germany have hit record lows, while Southern Europe, particularly Spain, is faring better. Most countries expect an improvement in building activity by 2025, except Germany, where the outlook remains bleak.<\/p>\n

Wood continues to gain market share in EU construction, driven by both environmental regulations and cost advantages. In 2023, the share of building permits for wood-dominant construction rose to 22%, up from 18.7% in 2019. The EU's Green Deal and other policies are expected to accelerate this trend in the coming years.<\/p>\n

Log supply and sawmill margins<\/strong><\/p>\n

One of the central concerns discussed at the conference was the availability and cost of logs, which have reached record highs across Scandinavia. According to industry expert Gerd Ebner, spruce logs are now priced around \u20ac100 per cubic meter in many parts of Europe. This trend is expected to persist due to labor shortages, regulatory pressures, and rising transportation costs.<\/p>\n

Although the beetle infestation in Europe led to increased spruce harvests in recent years, the supply of logs is expected to decline, particularly towards the end of the decade. This will further strain margins for sawmills, which are already grappling with rising labor and energy costs. The gap between falling prices for sawn timber and increasing input costs has left many sawmills operating at a loss.<\/p>\n

Production and market forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n

European softwood production has decreased to levels last seen in 2015, with a 12% drop compared to 2021. Austria stands out as the only major producer maintaining consistent production levels at around 10 million cubic meters annually. Looking ahead, production is expected to rise modestly by 4% in 2025, as markets show signs of recovery.<\/p>\n

The European Timber Trade Federation (ETTF) forecasts total EU softwood consumption at 41 million cubic meters in 2024, with a modest 1.1% increase in 2025. This is still well below North America's consumption, which stands at around 80 million cubic meters. Germany remains the only country with a negative outlook for 2025, while other markets are expected to rebound.<\/p>\n

Exports of EU sawnwood, which peaked at \u20ac9.5 million in 2022, have fallen to \u20ac6.35 million in 2023 and are expected to decline further in 2024. The U.S. and Chinese markets have seen significant drops in EU softwood imports, with a 17% decline in U.S. imports and a 6% decline in China from January to August 2024. However, markets in South Korea, India, and Taiwan showed promising growth, with EU sawmills increasing their market share in Asia by 6%.<\/p>\n

EUDR and industry challenges<\/strong><\/p>\n

The conference briefly addressed the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which has been postponed by 12 months. Despite the delay, there is still uncertainty surrounding its implementation, particularly regarding the level of detail required for tracking the origin of timber. Many industry players expressed concerns about the feasibility of pinpointing the precise forest origin for each individual board.<\/p>\n

As 2025 approaches, the softwood lumber industry faces a complex mix of challenges and opportunities. While economic uncertainty and rising raw material costs pose significant hurdles, the potential for a recovery in demand, especially in construction, provides a positive outlook for the medium term.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 72nd International Softwood Conference took place in the picturesque town of Taormina, Italy, from October 16-18, 2024. 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