{"id":88027,"date":"2024-08-29T10:07:32","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T10:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/will-chinas-timber-market-continue-to-shrink-in-the-future\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:28:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:28:49","slug":"will-chinas-timber-market-continue-to-shrink-in-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/will-chinas-timber-market-continue-to-shrink-in-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Will China\u2019s timber market continue to shrink in the future?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Will the Chinese timber market continue to shrink in the future? The following analysis will explore the impacts on logs and lumber from the perspectives of real estate market demand, import-export conditions, and maritime shipping.<\/span><\/p>\n

Real estate market:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both the area of new real estate projects and the area under construction in China have experienced varying degrees of decline, and downstream demand may continue to contract. According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, the area of new real estate projects has been declining year-on-year since July 2021, a trend that has continued. In May 2024, the decline intensified compared to the same period last year. New real estate project areas have decreased year-on-year for three consecutive years, leading to a continuous reduction in market demand. China's timber demand is closely linked to land development, so changes in real estate data significantly affect the actual demand for timber.<\/p>\n

Log market<\/strong><\/p>\n

The inventory of logs in China is at a historically low level, and the volume of shipments has decreased. However, due to limited downstream demand, the recovery of future demand may show structural differences. Despite low inventory levels, prices have not rebounded as expected. Inventory at major ports nationwide is 2.43 million cubic meters, below the two-year average of 2.6 million cubic meters. Despite this historically low inventory, prices have not rebounded as anticipated.<\/p>\n

From June 11 to June 23, a total of 15 log-carrying ships departed from New Zealand, compared to 19 in the same period last month. Among the ships departing between June 11 and June 23, approximately six headed to Lanshan Port and five to the Yangtze River Delta. Prices in the Yangtze River Delta remained stable compared to last week, while prices in Shandong slightly decreased. Most processing plants in Shandong have reported unsatisfactory orders. Although shipments from Shandong have increased, they mainly consist of engineered wood and small-grade radiata pine, with demand for furniture materials stronger than that for construction timber. The Yangtze River Delta's shipments decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, while Lanshan's shipments increased by 14.9% year-on-year. The traditional rainy season in the Yangtze River Delta has also impacted shipments.<\/p>\n

Lumber market:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Domestically and internationally, lumber prices are inverted, and inventories continue to decline. Some available lumber sizes and types are decreasing, creating potential for speculation around the remaining inventory.<\/p>\n

Since March, China's lumber market has actively reduced inventory, with downstream demand showing structural differences in its recovery. The global economy continues its path toward a \"soft landing\" this year. Policies supporting real estate continue to evolve, with China's real estate market gradually transitioning from a risk mitigation phase to a sales recovery phase. In Q1 2024, Taicang's lumber inventory increased continuously, but prices for mainstream lumber types and sizes fell. The Chinese lumber market is currently in a relatively fragile balance.<\/p>\n

In Q1 2024, Taicang's lumber inventory rapidly increased, reaching nearly 1.4 million cubic meters by the end of March 2024. After that, the Taicang lumber market entered an active inventory reduction phase. In mid-to-late May, the domestic lumber market gradually became sluggish, and by June, the market had become quite dull.<\/p>\n

The average daily outflow of inventory from the Taicang market dropped from a peak of 23,900 cubic meters\/day in mid-May to 15,300 cubic meters\/day by the end of June, a decrease of about 8,600 cubic meters\/day. Meanwhile, spot market prices remained weak, with transaction prices for some lumber brands falling. Currently, spruce SF-grade prices have dropped to the 1,850-1,950 RMB range, and traders eager to clear inventory may sell at prices below the market average.<\/p>\n

As for Scotch pine, although some traders raised their prices by 50-100 RMB in the second half of June, actual transaction prices did not significantly increase, and some sizes even saw slight declines. The market's acceptance of this price increase was low. At current market prices, spruce has shown a noticeable price inversion, and Scotch pine is hovering around the cost line, making the overall market outlook pessimistic. Many traders are cautious about receiving new shipments due to the bleak market prospects in June.<\/p>\n

Outlook for 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n

From January to May 2024, the area of new real estate projects decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, suggesting that the demand for construction timber will further decline throughout 2024. According to customs statistics, the export value of furniture and its parts increased by 16.6% year-on-year from January to May 2024. Stimulated by rising shipping costs, some subsequent orders were fulfilled early, indicating a potential rise in demand for furniture materials in July and August. However, demand may decline again as the off-season for consumption arrives. Total exports increased by 2.7% year-on-year from January to May 2024, and with the peak trading season approaching, demand for packaging materials may also rise. Overall, despite an oversupply in the Taicang lumber market, the gradual release of risks in the real estate sector and the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season may lead to a structural recovery in downstream demand.<\/p>\n

The prices of mainstream lumber in the Taicang market have been declining from the beginning of the year to mid-June. Currently, both prices and inventories are decreasing. Additionally, with the inverted domestic and international prices and a pessimistic outlook on the recovery of the Chinese market, it is expected that traders will reduce their future order volumes.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will the Chinese timber market continue to shrink in the future? The following analysis will explore the impacts on logs and lumber from the perspectives of real estate market demand, import-export conditions, and maritime shipping. Real estate market: Both the … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill China\u2019s timber market continue to shrink in the future? - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/will-chinas-timber-market-continue-to-shrink-in-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will China\u2019s timber market continue to shrink in the future? - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Will the Chinese timber market continue to shrink in the future? 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