{"id":87969,"date":"2024-08-08T04:59:05","date_gmt":"2024-08-08T04:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/european-timber-industry-market-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:02:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:02:33","slug":"european-timber-industry-market-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/european-timber-industry-market-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"European timber industry market outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the current period of economic upheaval concludes, the future landscape of the timber trade remains uncertain, heavily influenced by EU policy decisions. Producers are hopeful that both the EU's internal market and the US market will absorb their products. However, challenges such as rising energy costs, high interest rates, declining exports, and disrupted supply chains continue to affect the industry, raising questions about how the timber trade will reorganize in the face of these ongoing economic difficulties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy costs and economic challenges:<\/strong> The surge in energy costs, high interest rates, and declining exports have contributed to Germany's economic difficulties. The softwood log trade and the timber industry have also been affected. According to a consultant's comment on May 9, another impacting factor is the state of the country's forests.<\/p>\n

Import numbers for softwood logs have significantly declined since 2018, and exports have seen a similar drop after 2020. Despite these declines, German exports remain at historically high levels, partly due to the export of beetle-damaged logs to China.<\/p>\n

Japan's declining imports:<\/strong> Like Germany, Japan's imports of softwood logs have also sharply decreased. Over the past six years, Japan's softwood lumber imports have fallen by 48%, averaging an 8% annual decline with a mere 1% increase between 2021 and 2022. In 2023, imports dropped by nearly 33% compared to 2022, totaling 3.2 million m\u00b3. Japanese imports of softwood lumber from Finland and Sweden both decreased by over 30% year-on-year in 2023, while imports from Canada fell by 19% year-on-year (a 60% drop from 2017 to 2023). Although there was a rebound at the end of 2023, long-term growth seems unlikely due to the close link between Japan's softwood lumber imports and its housing market. The aging population reduces demand, though government policies favoring non-residential wood construction offer some hope.<\/p>\n

Swedish wood production and export trends:<\/strong> Swedish wood product production slightly decreased in 2023 compared to the previous year, dropping from 18.87 Mm\u00b3 to 17.8 Mm\u00b3. Domestic sales declined due to a sluggish construction sector, but exports held up well despite challenging global economic conditions, with annual export growth of 1% supported by a weak Swedish krona.<\/p>\n

\"We can likely expect further production declines in 2024. Even if inflation stabilizes, it will take time to impact the construction sector,\" stated Christian Nielsen, a wood products market expert from the Swedish Forest Industries Federation. He anticipates strong demand from the US and the EU single market in the medium term. \"Despite global economic uncertainty and high interest rates, new production in the US is robust,\" he said. European, particularly French, policies favoring wood construction also offer hope for Sweden. \"The single market and the UK currently account for over 50% of Swedish wood product sales, and we expect increased interest from the US,\" concluded the expert.<\/p>\n

European hardwood and softwood production:<\/strong> The European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS) reported that in 2023, the volume of sawn hardwood produced by affiliated countries marked a decline and a record low of 5.1 million m\u00b3. Romania\u2019s volume fell by 17.2% (1.2 million m\u00b3), Germany\u2019s by 12.4% (877,000 m\u00b3), and Latvia\u2019s by 31.7% (615,000 m\u00b3), mostly due to absent roundwood deliveries from Russia. While Latvia anticipates further reduction to 605,000 m\u00b3 and Romania expects stagnation, German sawmills foresee a recovery to 940,000 m\u00b3 in 2024.<\/p>\n

The EOS also reported that sawn softwood production fell by 6% in 2023 to a total of 80.98 million m\u00b3. A slower reduction in production is expected for 2024, with a forecast of 79.5 million m\u00b3, a decrease of ~2% compared to last year.<\/p>\n

Market forecasts and price trends:<\/strong> The latest market report by EUROCONSTRUCT forecasts a decline in construction output in Europe in 2024 of 2.1%, followed by growth in 2025 and 2026, as well as a stabilization of wood-panel prices.<\/p>\n

Based on increasing prices for wood products in the spring, expectations for longer-term market improvement emerged. The US seemed poised to drive prices. However, there are concerns about summer trends. The spring price rise was driven by low customer inventories and production constraints due to timber shortages rather than improved demand. Now, customers have built up their stocks while demand has not improved, and many sawmills have been operating at full capacity at higher timber prices.<\/p>\n

Nordic countries and raw material costs:<\/strong> Among the Nordic countries, Finland\u2019s GDP exposure to the construction sector is the strongest, resulting in significant impacts from weak demand. Construction companies are struggling to sell finished apartments, and housing starts are weak, reducing demand for sawn wood.<\/p>\n

Despite declining demand, both pulpwood and sawlog prices have reached all-time highs in Finland after rebounding from year-end lows. Sawmills face increasing raw material costs and weaker product demand.<\/p>\n

In Sweden, timber prices have continued to rise throughout the country, with further smaller price increases anticipated, especially for spruce and pulpwood, particularly in northern Sweden. Pulpmills are running at full capacity following record pulp prices. Energy wood prices have also peaked, competing with pulp mills for raw material. Indications suggest a more balanced market, avoiding recent extreme local prices.<\/p>\n

Impact of strikes in Finland:<\/strong> In Finland, strikes in Q2 2024, in response to new labor laws, negatively impacted the industry. Many firms temporarily furloughed employees and shut down mills. Following the strike, Mets\u00e4 Group reported limited roundwood supply due to road and rail transport issues, and port walkouts hindered exports of finished products. Sawn wood sales in the first quarter dropped by 27.7% year-on-year to 222,000 m\u00b3, a 38% decrease from the previous quarter. With the Merikarvia pine sawmill ceasing production in April, Mets\u00e4\u2019s annual sawn wood capacity for 2024 is now expected to be reduced by roughly 10% to 1.86 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

Calamity wood in Croatia:<\/strong> In Croatia, state forest enterprise Hrvatske \u0161ume reported 3.96 million m\u00b3 of calamity wood from the July 2023 storms, revising earlier estimates. This includes 1.94 million m\u00b3 of common oak, 159,600 m\u00b3 of sessile oak, 638,000 m\u00b3 of beech, 32,000 m\u00b3 of spruce\/fir, and 1.19 million m\u00b3 of other species. Estimates for private forests are unavailable, but approximately 5 million m\u00b3 of windblown wood is assumed nationwide.<\/p>\n

European Trade and Regulations:<\/strong> The European Commission is launching another investigation into imports of multi-layered parquet from China, following a complaint by the European Parquet Federation (FEP) in April 2024, citing evidence of dumping and market damage. In June, the Dutch Government\u2019s Fiscal Information and Investigation Service (FIOD) arrested two importers of birch plywood from Russia.<\/p>\n

New formaldehyde regulations will be implemented in the EU from August 6, 2026, standardizing emissions limits across Europe. Calls have been made by European woodworking organizations for fewer obstacles in the EUDR implementation. However, the European Forest Owners Federation (CEPF) considers a delay unrealistic, stressing the need for a traceability system to ensure compliance and maintain access to the EU market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the current period of economic upheaval concludes, the future landscape of the timber trade remains uncertain, heavily influenced by EU policy decisions. 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