{"id":87960,"date":"2024-08-06T07:18:03","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T07:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/china-soft-log-demand-in-july-market-outlook-gloomy\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:02:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:02:32","slug":"china-soft-log-demand-in-july-market-outlook-gloomy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/china-soft-log-demand-in-july-market-outlook-gloomy\/","title":{"rendered":"China: Soft log demand in July, market outlook gloomy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Log demand has softened in China during July with some nervousness around August pricing. Wet weather events are causing a drop in log demand while the underlying problem of high local government debt and low consumer spending levels continue to create a pessimistic market.<\/span><\/p>\n

China radiata pine log inventory is about 2.7m m3\u00a0and log demand is drifting along at about 55k m3\u00a0per day. Rain and wet conditions in Northern China have reduced activity.\u00a0The modest increases expected in log prices in July were hard to come by.\u00a0 Even as CFR prices for imported logs were rising in June and early July the wholesale log prices were not. The range for A grade is currently US$118-124 per JASm3\u00a0for A grade.<\/p>\n

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased in July to 51.8 from 51.7 in June. (Any number above 50 signals manufacturing growth). This is the eighth consecutive\u00a0 month of expansion in factory activity and the highest number since May 2021. Foreign sales continued to grow but at\u00a0 the slowest pace of growth in six months. Buyers are feeling the price pressure due to higher shipping costs. Sentiment has fallen to a four and half year low.<\/p>\n

Local Government Funding Vehicles (LGFV\u2019s) became widespread after the global financial crisis of 2008. They are hybrid entities that are both public and corporate and were created to skirt restrictions on local government borrowing.\u00a0 The IMF estimates that China\u2019s total LGFV debt hit US$9.1 tln in 2023, which is more than half of China\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP). China\u2019s plan to solve this crisis has only provided temporary solutions and default risks remain significant.<\/p>\n

This problem is two-fold for the construction industry. First many infrastructure and construction projects are funded by local governments (or encouraged by Central Government to buy unsold homes). Second, uncontrolled defaults by these LGFV\u2019s could seriously damage China\u2019s banking system.<\/p>\n

Prices for new homes in June fell at the fastest pace in nine years. These issues combined indicate it will be a very slow recovery for the property market in China.<\/p>\n

Interestingly Vietnam's exports increased 19.1% for the year end July when compared with the previous year. This is primarily due to Chinese companies and investors looking to diversify their manufacturing and supply chains.<\/p>\n

Source: Pf Olsen<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Log demand has softened in China during July with some nervousness around August pricing. 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