{"id":87856,"date":"2024-07-11T07:04:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-11T07:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/wood-prices-plummet-to-record-low-global-wood-market-in-serious-crisis\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:28:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:28:32","slug":"wood-prices-plummet-to-record-low-global-wood-market-in-serious-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wood-prices-plummet-to-record-low-global-wood-market-in-serious-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Wood prices plummet to record low \u2013 Global wood market in serious crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global lumber prices are falling like a stone. Market experts had not actually expected this new crash. At the beginning of July, lumber prices fell below USD 450 per 1,000 board feet for the first time since June 2020.<\/p>\n

In early July, global lumber prices fell below the already very low post-pandemic price levels. They are now approaching their recent lows and are 20 to 30% below production costs, said Kyle Little, CEO of Sherwood Lumber, to the US trade magazine fortune.com.<\/p>\n

Last year and early this year, lumber prices initially recovered significantly , but in March prices began to fall again and were most recently trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at well below $450 per 1,000 board feet.<\/p>\n

Global lumber prices last week fell below their last lows of early 2023 and are now trading near their last lows of June 2020. The price decline for lumber has been particularly dramatic in the last 90 days on the futures market alone, lumber analysts report, with contract prices for July plummeting to $443 per thousand board feet (futures prices are still $100 above spot prices due to a delivery fee).<\/p>\n

Industry experts blame the collapse in lumber demand on a record-breaking decline in housing affordability in the U.S. and a slowdown in home renovations. It's simply too expensive for consumers to buy a new home or renovate their existing one.<\/p>\n

That has led to fewer construction projects and a drop in lumber sales. At the same time, overly optimistic industry demand forecasts amid hopes of falling interest rates and rising home sales have led sawmills to increase supply at a very bad time, lumber market analysts tell fortune.com.<\/p>\n

Demand for lumber collapses \u2013 lumber market at rock bottom<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The factors underlying lumber price movements are varied and complex, but as always, it all comes down to supply and demand. On the demand side, soaring home prices and increased mortgage rates have led to a record-breaking decline in housing affordability in the United States (and other regions of the world) in recent years.<\/p>\n

As a result, demand for new homes has remained subdued despite ongoing housing shortages, leading to equally weak demand for lumber. It's one of the worst times to buy a home in decades , and the pool of qualified buyers is also starting to dwindle, so high interest rates are starting to hurt at some point. Weak demand for new homes caused builder confidence to drop to a five-month low last month and housing starts to fall 19% from a year earlier.<\/p>\n

For a while, new single-family home construction prevented wood prices from falling significantly. But this trend has now reversed: construction starts for single-family homes fell by 2% year-on-year in May.<\/p>\n

A veteran lumber trader told Fortune he also sees signs of declining lumber demand among retail buyers as well.<\/p>\n

Wood supply increased in anticipation of rising wood prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

While demand in the wood market is collapsing, the supply side could be in an even worse situation. After wood prices rose sharply in 2021 and 2022, the wood industry responded with investments to increase production.<\/p>\n

Many market observers saw a long-term opportunity for increased demand due to the housing shortage. And the market also expected impending interest rate cuts, which would tend to lead to stronger demand for wood in the short term.<\/p>\n

The problem with this scenario is that it takes years to build new sawmills and increase lumber supply. This means that much of the new lumber shipments ordered during the pandemic are now coming onto the market - at a time when additional supply is the last thing the lumber market needs.<\/p>\n

As for expectations for the rest of this year, Fastemarket experts say that wood prices could remain close to their current levels, with the possibility of a slight price increase in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

Due to falling wood prices in the second half of this year, many sawmills will be forced to reduce or completely cease production, leading to a decline in wood supply \u2013 and stabilizing prices.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global lumber prices are falling like a stone. Market experts had not actually expected this new crash. At the beginning of July, lumber prices fell below USD 450 per 1,000 board feet for the first time since June 2020. 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