{"id":87378,"date":"2024-03-09T07:51:45","date_gmt":"2024-03-09T07:51:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/the-swedish-sawmill-industry-anticipates-higher-lumber-prices-this-spring\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:01:41","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:01:41","slug":"the-swedish-sawmill-industry-anticipates-higher-lumber-prices-this-spring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/the-swedish-sawmill-industry-anticipates-higher-lumber-prices-this-spring\/","title":{"rendered":"The Swedish sawmill industry anticipates higher lumber prices this spring"},"content":{"rendered":"

After a brutal fall for Swedish sawmills, where lumber prices plummeted sharply while timber prices soared, there is now a clear light at the end of the tunnel. Since mid-December, there have been signals of shortages from the buyer's side, allowing sawmills to cautiously implement ongoing price increases.<\/span><\/p>\n

The price hikes seem to range between 5-10%, but most Swedish sawmill managers are convinced that the increases will continue at a slightly higher pace during the second quarter. In recent years, sawmills' price expectations have swung in an almost manic-depressive manner, highlighting the market's fragility.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, it's not increased consumption driving the price hike, but rather a low supply of goods, and buyers who have waited for lower prices while reducing their inventories to the brink. Is this a sustained turnaround in the sawmills' price cycle? It seems that prices have bottomed out and there might be a short price rally in the spring. However, it is highly doubtful that this is the beginning of a longer upswing. The underlying demand is still too low to withstand an increase in production. An increase that is likely to occur if lumber prices rise, but everything depends on the raw material.<\/p>\n

Raw material shortage slows down sawmill production. During November-December 2023, sawmill production in Sweden fell by a staggering 15% compared to the same period in 2022. The year-end decrease to 17.8 million m3 is a significant 6.6% drop compared to 2021 when production peaked at 19 million m3. The production cut is hardly a market adjustment to the pressured situation but is primarily due to a shortage of timber. Most Swedish sawmills have temporarily halted production during the fall due to a lack of raw materials.<\/p>\n

If there is any consolation in someone else having an even worse raw material situation, attention can be directed towards Central Europe, where production decreased by up to 20% compared to the previous year. Here, it is likely a combination of market-related and raw material-induced cutbacks. Throughout Europe, total sawmill production has decreased by 13% or 15 million m3 in two years and the decline is expected to continue. In Canada, sawmill production has decreased by 9% in the last two years, and it seems that this is just the beginning of a more escalating decline due to a shortage of timber.<\/p>\n

Q4 2023 was a disaster for most sawmills. From astronomical profitability in Q3-21 to double-digit loss margins in Q4-23. We have to go back to 2012 to find similar loss levels. Of the larger sawmills reporting Q4-23, only SCA managed to balance at the breakeven point. Q1-24 will show even worse figures. Lumber price hikes have not fully kicked in yet, while timber price increases bite fully.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a brutal fall for Swedish sawmills, where lumber prices plummeted sharply while timber prices soared, there is now a clear light at the end of the tunnel. 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