{"id":87262,"date":"2024-02-06T09:51:48","date_gmt":"2024-02-06T09:51:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/swedish-market-manager-foresees-timber-shortage-this-spring-that-will-boost-prices\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:01:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:01:29","slug":"swedish-market-manager-foresees-timber-shortage-this-spring-that-will-boost-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/swedish-market-manager-foresees-timber-shortage-this-spring-that-will-boost-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Swedish market manager foresees timber shortage this spring that will boost prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

Only the sharpest sawmills are profitable right now.\u00a0That's what Erik Eliasson, marketing manager at Norra Timber, says.\u00a0But when interest rates turn downward, the turn will also come for the sawmills, he believes. <\/span><\/p>\n

As far as the Nordic region is concerned, it has probably suffered the most marked economic slowdown in comparison with other parts of the world. In a short time, it has gone from close to 0 to just over 5 percent in variable interest rates for mortgages, driven by significant inflation. Since it has an enormously high proportion of variable loans, purchasing power changes immediately with interest rate changes. The effects on the housing market and construction have been tangible, cross-cutting.<\/p>\n

Falling timber consumption<\/strong><\/p>\n

In Europe, wood consumption has fallen by almost 20 percent between 2021 and 2024. We have to go back to 2014 to find similarly low levels of consumption. North America's construction and wood consumption are also falling, but not as much, and there the turnaround is expected to come earlier.<\/p>\n

China's construction has for a long time been the engine of economic growth with a contribution to the country's GDP of as much as 24 percent. But construction is now also falling back and a property bubble can be discerned. Things are simply getting worse for China.<\/p>\n

In line with reduced demand from the forest industry, the global supply of sawn timber also decreases. Reduced demand from the forest industry leads to a global decrease in the supply of sawn timber. Insights from a central European sawmill group owner indicate an anticipated 20 percent decline in the coming year.<\/p>\n

From strong to unprofitable<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Bark beetle damage and storms have for a number of years pushed forward large volumes of felling at a time when the timber market was extremely strong. Now, instead, a dark cloud rests over the industry, as the prices of timber make production unprofitable in large parts of Europe, while the supply from the forest has decreased. In 2021, Russia was the world's largest exporter of wood products, but over two years has reduced its exports by 25 percent due to the Ukraine war and weak demand from China. Previously, these countries together bought 75 percent of Russian wood product exports.<\/p>\n

In northern Sweden, sawmill production has decreased by 10 percent in the past year, and if we reverse the tape further, the reduction reaches a staggering 18 percent. According to Erik Eliasson, this trend risks continuing. Sveaskog's sudden halving of fellings in northern Sweden and an active environmental movement, which is setting up a system to appeal fellings linked to species protection, are examples of factors that complicate the conditions for the sawmills.<\/p>\n

\n

Paradoxically, the timber shortage that results in low production and low stocks can be the key that turns the tide. Erik Eliasson's hope is that despite tough times, there will be a shortage situation in the spring that will push wood product prices up towards a more healthy level.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

As many as 60 percent of Swedish sawmills believe in price increases for their products during the first quarter of 2024. Only ten percent believe that prices will continue to fall, according to statistics from the Norwegian Economic Institute.<\/p>\n

''The challenge for the sawmills is that the supply is limited,'' says Erik Eliasson.<\/p>\n

Norra Timber owns three sawmills, three processing units and a pole factory. Annually, among other things, 800,000 cubic meters of sawn timber, 250,000 cubic meters of planed timber and approximately 60,000 turned pine posts are produced. Between 65 and 70 percent of the products are exported.<\/p>\n

During January through November 2023, total production in the sawmill industry in Sweden decreased by six percent. In northern Sweden, the reduction was the largest with twelve percent.<\/p>\n

''We at Norra Timber fared somewhat better and decreased by eight percent, with emphasis in the autumn. The reason was not weak contracting but bottlenecks in the availability of logging resources. We contract very well, but it is important to get the forest to the industries as well. I feel that the entire industry is struggling to find entrepreneurs and for us it has been a huge Achilles heel, ''says Erik Eliasson.<\/p>\n

Expect a shortage of spruce<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite high timber prices, Swedish sawmills' supply of raw materials is low. Erik Eliasson believes that the supply, especially of spruce, will decrease even more.<\/p>\n

''We are heading towards a spruce shortage. Spruce layers decrease quite dramatically while fir is more unchanged. My assessment is that we are entering a clear supply shortage in terms of spruce this spring. I think that will have effects on the market prices of wood products. Production in Finland is going downhill and that will also drive the prices of finished goods,'' he says.<\/p>\n

''We believe that the raw material supply situation will be tough for all players both in the short and long term, no talk about it. But for the sawmills, the bottom has been reached and when interest rates come down, prices go up. If sawmills are to become a healthy industry again, prices need to rise by a fifth. Then you start to be able to generate profitability again. As it is now, most sawmills are below break even,'' continues Erik Eliasson.<\/p>\n

Planning large investments<\/strong><\/p>\n

He believes that only \"the very sharpest\" sawmills are making money right now and that the industry in general is at the bottom of the curve.<\/p>\n

''Sawn timber prices are at their peak and the sawmill economy is at its lowest,'' he says.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Norra Timber is planning for extensive investments of half a billion kroner in its facilities. However, these are long-planned investments that are not linked to the market situation. Among other things, they are investing in new measurement stations in K\u00e5ge and S\u00e4var and X-ray systems (CT-log) at all Norra Timber's facilities.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Only the sharpest sawmills are profitable right now.\u00a0That’s what Erik Eliasson, marketing manager at Norra Timber, says.\u00a0But when interest rates turn downward, the turn will also come for the sawmills, he believes. As far as the Nordic region is concerned, … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSwedish market manager foresees timber shortage this spring that will boost prices - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/swedish-market-manager-foresees-timber-shortage-this-spring-that-will-boost-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Swedish market manager foresees timber shortage this spring that will boost prices - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Only the sharpest sawmills are profitable right now.\u00a0That's what Erik Eliasson, marketing manager at Norra Timber, says.\u00a0But when interest rates turn downward, the turn will also come for the sawmills, he believes. 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