{"id":87229,"date":"2024-01-23T09:55:30","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T09:55:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/us-lumber-price-volatility-expected-to-stay-high-in-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:01:25","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:01:25","slug":"us-lumber-price-volatility-expected-to-stay-high-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-price-volatility-expected-to-stay-high-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"US lumber price volatility expected to stay high in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s reason to believe that in 2024 month-to-month price volatility will remain elevated compared with the sleepy days prior to 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, market participants will need to accept that the volatility in the market witnessed from the spring of 2020 and through 2022 is behind us now. This was a black swan event, largely stemming from both demand and supply shocks directly tied to the pandemic that are now subsiding. Mill staffing and production has now recovered fully, the surge in demand from the R&R and single-family boom have corrected, and transportation and distribution are facing a fraction of the disruptions we saw in 2021 and 2022. We are now in a normal demand-supply equilibrium, which suggests the price-surge environment we saw for two years is over. This correction was clear in 2023, when the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price (FLCP) averaged $411 per MBF for the year.<\/p>\n

So, what is the good news for mill operators and traders in 2024? The demand rebound we anticipate in 2024 sets the industry up for tightening operating rates, which should carry prices higher. While supply continues to expand as\u00a0southern yellow pine (SYP) capacity ramps up in the US South,\u00a0closures and constrained log supply in the rest of North America will keep capacity gains modest, trending at a modest 1-2% in most years. This should provide the opportunity for demand growth to overshoot supply growth in 2024.<\/p>\n

Western SPF 2&Btr 2\u00d74 are expected to average $427 per MBF in 2024 and the FLCP will average $432 per MBF, which translates to mid- to high-single-digit growth in prices year over year. Prices at current levels are also not sustainable for a significant swath of the North American industry, namely dimensional lumber producers in British Columbia who are coping with variables breakeven levels in the low $400s per MBF for lumber delivered to the US (and notably still facing antidumping and countervailing duties). The salvo of closures saw in 2023 reflects the challenging market environment for high-cost mills in North America.<\/p>\n

As lumber prices gain upward momentum, temporarily curtailed sawmill capacity will come in from the sidelines. This will keep supply and demand in balance and temper the magnitude of the price increases. Competing sources of supply from offshore, particularly from Central and Northern Europe, which has gained share over the years, will also keep the market in check. While the year-over-year gains in dimension lumber prices will be modest, a year of net price appreciation will still be a welcome development for much of the wood products supply chain.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s reason to believe that in 2024 month-to-month price volatility will remain elevated compared with the sleepy days prior to 2018. However, market participants will need to accept that the volatility in the market witnessed from the spring of 2020 … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":83852,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS lumber price volatility expected to stay high in 2024 - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-price-volatility-expected-to-stay-high-in-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US lumber price volatility expected to stay high in 2024 - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s reason to believe that in 2024 month-to-month price volatility will remain elevated compared with the sleepy days prior to 2018. 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