{"id":87169,"date":"2023-12-28T08:41:31","date_gmt":"2023-12-28T08:41:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/new-fed-monetary-policy-could-push-u-s-lumber-demand-and-prices-higher\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:01:19","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:01:19","slug":"new-fed-monetary-policy-could-push-u-s-lumber-demand-and-prices-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/new-fed-monetary-policy-could-push-u-s-lumber-demand-and-prices-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"New Fed monetary policy could push U.S. lumber demand and prices higher"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nearby January physical lumber futures were at $539 per 1,000 board feet on November 17. On December 22, the March contract price was higher at the $585.50 level.<\/span><\/p>\n

A bullish trend could be developing<\/strong><\/p>\n

After trading just below $500 per 1,000 board feet on October 25, March physical lumber futures have made higher lows and higher highs.<\/p>\n

The chart shows the rise to over the $590 level, with March futures trading near the recent peak on December 22. The U.S. Fed validated the bullish trend at the early December FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Fed set the stage for a rebound in new home demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. central bank surprised markets at the early December FOMC meeting. While the market had expected the Fed to continue to pause rate hikes after favorable November consumer and producer price index data, the central bank\u2019s rate cut forecasts for 2024 indicated a pivot from a hawkish to a more accommodative monetary policy approach.<\/p>\n

Thirty-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage rates below 3% in 2021 had risen to over 8% in October 2023. While the rise in home financing costs caused borrowing to grind to a halt, the lack of existing home supplies kept prices high. Homeowners locked into fixed-rate mortgages below 4% would not sell their homes to trade up or down with rates at double that level. Therefore, home supplies dwindled.<\/p>\n

The prospects for rate cuts will not likely increase existing home supplies but will cause rising demand for new construction. More new homes translate to increasing demand for lumber, a critical construction ingredient.<\/p>\n

The levels to watch on the upside<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lumber prices rallied from the October low when the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures reached the lowest level since 2007. The recovery in bonds supports higher lumber prices.<\/p>\n

The three-year physical lumber futures chart highlights the first upside target at the July 2023 $593 per 1,000 board feet high. Above there, technical resistance is at the January 2023 $627, September and October $655, and August 2022 $712 per 1,000 board feet highs.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Lumber prices tend to peak during spring and summer as new home construction increases. The Fed\u2019s pivot to a more dovish monetary approach could send mortgage rates down over the coming months, pushing lumber demand and prices higher.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nearby January physical lumber futures were at $539 per 1,000 board feet on November 17. On December 22, the March contract price was higher at the $585.50 level. 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