{"id":87156,"date":"2023-12-22T08:54:40","date_gmt":"2023-12-22T08:54:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/wood-prices-could-rise-significantly-in-2024-the-us-wood-market-is-showing-positive-momentum\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:27:22","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:27:22","slug":"wood-prices-could-rise-significantly-in-2024-the-us-wood-market-is-showing-positive-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wood-prices-could-rise-significantly-in-2024-the-us-wood-market-is-showing-positive-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Wood prices could rise significantly in 2024 \u2013 the US wood market is showing positive momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wood prices on the North American market, which is important for the global market, recovered at the end of the year. Some analysts see a sharp price increase in 2024. On the one hand, this is due to the expected upswing in the US housing market \u2013 and the shrinking supply. High mortgage interest rates are still slowing down house building, even though they have fallen slightly recently.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. softwood lumber prices remained below the benchmark of $550 per 1,000 board feet in December. Investors are torn between still uncertain demand and tighter supply.<\/p>\n

Due to reduced production in North America, the industry has seen a decline in supply of around 2% to 3% so far in 2023. Factors such as sawmill closures, lower annual allowable felling in British Columbia and increased production costs led to supply shortages.<\/p>\n

High real estate demand supports lumber prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recently, the price of softwood lumber in the USA has been moving upwards. Analysts think things could continue to improve. High interest rates, which are slowing down house construction, still speak against this.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, lumber prices continued to be supported by expectations of higher U.S. real estate demand in 2024, as markets bet on Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2024 and domestic housing starts fell 1.9 month-over-month in October 2023 % increased to 1.375 million. This exceeds estimates of 1.35 million and signals a gradual recovery in the sector.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the International Trade Commission's (ITC) decision to maintain anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber exerted downward pressure on the real estate market. From the perspective of homeowners' associations, they make Canadian softwood lumber unnecessarily more expensive<\/p>\n

Big gap in the US housing market<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the US, lumber prices have increased by $41\/1,000 board feet, or 8.2%, since the beginning of 2023. Lumber is expected to trade at $564\/1000 board feet by the end of 2023, according to Trading Economics' global macro models and analyst expectations. For 2024, analysts at Trading Economics expect lumber prices to be at $640\/1000 board feet in 12 months.<\/p>\n

That would be a hefty increase of 18%, or around $100, from current prices of $541. The reason for the expected price increase: the housing gap, which was exacerbated by the boom in the real estate market during the pandemic, still exists. Market observers in the USA put this gap at around 6.4 million single-family homes. Therefore, more houses are expected to be built in the future and there will be an increased demand for lumber, driving up lumber prices.<\/p>\n

High interest rates are slowing down construction and the lumber market<\/strong><\/p>\n

While this may seem overly simplistic, that is how markets work. Prices rise when demand is not met or exceeds supply. And that appears to be the case with the most important factor influencing global lumber prices \u2013 the US real estate market. Demand is also increasing due to falling interest rates and an upturn in the economy. Falling interest rates in 2024 would further stimulate demand and drive up wood prices.<\/p>\n

But it's not there yet: 30-year mortgage rates have fallen since the end of October, when they reached a 23-year high of 7.79%. At the end of November they stood at 7.22% and fell below the 7% mark in December to currently stand at 6.95%. This is higher than a year ago, when the interest rate was 6.3% and, above all, miles away from the 5% mark that is considered normal and tolerable in the USA.<\/p>\n

Even if some analysts see a construction boom for 2024, it will not come without noticeably falling mortgage interest rates. European market players are correspondingly cautious when it comes to the year 2024. Optimism here is limited.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wood prices on the North American market, which is important for the global market, recovered at the end of the year. Some analysts see a sharp price increase in 2024. 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