{"id":87073,"date":"2023-11-30T08:48:49","date_gmt":"2023-11-30T08:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/north-american-lumber-prices-recent-upsides-could-lead-to-spring-peaks\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:01:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:01:11","slug":"north-american-lumber-prices-recent-upsides-could-lead-to-spring-peaks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/north-american-lumber-prices-recent-upsides-could-lead-to-spring-peaks\/","title":{"rendered":"North American lumber prices: Recent upsides could lead to spring peaks"},"content":{"rendered":"

North American lumber prices were slightly higher on November 17 but were not running away on the upside.<\/p>\n

Nearby January lumber futures traded around the $500 per 1,000 board feet level from late September through early November.<\/span><\/p>\n

The chart highlights the bullish trend that developed from the October 25 $483 low that took lumber prices to the latest $545 high on November 17. Short-term technical resistance for the January futures is at the August 21 $556 peak.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The most recent continuous contract high was only $2 above the August peak of $543 per 1,000 board. Above there, the early 2023 high was at the $627 level.<\/p>\n

N. American lumber prices tend to peak during the spring season<\/strong><\/p>\n

The demand for lumber for construction tends to peak after the winter as the weather improves and building increases. Since futures markets are always one step ahead of physical spot markets, lumber tends to rally as the spring approaches.<\/p>\n

The physical lumber contracts began trading in 2022, so the old random-length futures provide a long-term picture of seasonal trends. The old lumber futures reached the first record high in March 1993 at the $493.50 level. In May 2021, lumber soared, reaching $1,711.20, and in March 2022, the high was lower at $1,477.40 per 1,000 board feet. As the holiday season approaches, markets are looking forward into 2024. The potential is high for rallies as next spring approaches.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Lumber can be a leader in the commodities asset class<\/strong><\/p>\n

The lumber futures market is highly illiquid, as the industrial commodity does not attract significant hedging or speculative volume. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the lumber futures arena, remains at a low level compared to other industrial raw material markets.<\/p>\n

Low liquidity causes extreme volatility in price trends. Upside price moves can cause offers to sell to disappear, while downside price action often comes without bids to purchase wood. Therefore, trends can lead to significant price moves to levels that defy rational, reasonable, and logical supply and demand fundamentals.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, lumber is a bellwether commodity that reflects economic conditions. Therefore, extreme price moves in lumber can portend bullish or bearish price action in other industrial commodities like energy or metals.<\/p>\n

The chart shows the rise to 9,020 contracts in late October. However, the metric has declined 32.4% to the 6,095 level in mid-November. In a futures market, declining open interest and rising price is not a technical confirmation of an emerging bullish trend. The decline in the total number of open long and short positions is likely a sign that hedgers and other market participants have closed risk positions during the most recent rally.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North American lumber prices were slightly higher on November 17 but were not running away on the upside. Nearby January lumber futures traded around the $500 per 1,000 board feet level from late September through early November. 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