{"id":86980,"date":"2023-11-07T08:46:29","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T08:46:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/us-housing-demand-expected-push-lumber-prices-higher-in-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:01:03","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:01:03","slug":"us-housing-demand-expected-push-lumber-prices-higher-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-housing-demand-expected-push-lumber-prices-higher-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"US housing demand expected push lumber prices higher in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lumber prices have somewhat stabilized this year after years of unusual volatility during the pandemic, making it easier for B.C. forestry companies to plan their business activities, analysts say.<\/span><\/p>\n

A thousand board feet (mbf) of mixed species lumber (spruce, pine, fir) was selling last week for US$400, down nearly US$100 from August, mainly due to it being low season for construction. But prices are expected to rise in February when orders for lumber products to fulfill U.S. housing demand increase.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a couple of things that are happening. One is that there is a long-term shortage of homes available based on the demographic,\u201d said one industry insider.<\/p>\n

It is estimated that there was a 6.4-million-home gap between single-family home construction and household formations in the U.S. between 2012 and 2022. That gap is down to 2.3 million homes if multi-family construction is included, according to recent analysis.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a high amount of homes that are starting to age that are 70 years and older, that will either have to be actually torn down and rebuilt,\u201d the insider said. \u201cThese things both mean lumber sales.\u201d<\/p>\n

In February, prices start to increase as large U.S. homebuilders order wood so they can begin construction in the spring months, the insider explained.<\/p>\n

Lumber prices ranged from US$300\/mbf to US$450\/mbf in 2023. Another industry expert said he expects prices to average about US$390\/mbf for the year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are currently in the seasonally slow period of the lumber market cycle. October normally experiences a low \u2013 and prices are currently moving lower \u2013 before rising some time in November through January. I expect this normal cycle to persist over the next three months with little volatility expected,\u201d said the expert.<\/p>\n

\u201cNorth American lumber markets can be described as relatively balanced. Demand is steady and lumber production is attempting to balance with demand. As a result, prices are bouncing around only a little bit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Normality in the market follows three years of pandemic price volatility. At peak in 2021, lumber prices reached a record high of US$1,600\/mbf.<\/p>\n

This price volatility was challenging for the industry, as businesses and customers couldn\u2019t plan effectively.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now [the price is] still low and that makes sense because the economy is still slow,\u201d the insider said. \u201cIt\u2019s what we call the new reality, new normal.\u201d<\/p>\n

The trend line for lumber prices now \u201calmost exactly\u201d matches the trend line in 2019, with slightly higher prices due to higher sawmill production costs.<\/p>\n

The anticipated average price of US$390\/mbf in 2023 means that B.C. sawmills would have operated \u201cat a loss for much if not all of the year,\u201d as their break-even price is US$444 to US$493 per thousand board feet, according to the expert.<\/p>\n

B.C. lumber production is seeing the greatest reduction in North America, down by almost 10 billion board feet \u2013 or 60 per cent \u2013 in 2023 compared to 2006, said the expert.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a result of the wind down of the Mountain pine beetle epidemic but now being accelerated by many B.C. government forest policies plus ongoing challenges of reduced timber supplies from other beetles and more forest fire implications,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

B.C. sawmills that are still operating are looking to scale up in 2024 as prices rise.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor sawmills, the highest cost is energy and labour.\u2026 Our mills here in B.C., especially the large ones, are optimized to run at a high capacity so they are more efficient if they can run at 90 per cent,\u201d the insider said. \u201cThey have been running barely 75 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to overproduce because then the price will go down. So, they\u2019re waiting. Everything depends on what\u2019s going to happen next year; 2024 is going to be a good year for U.S. housing.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lumber prices have somewhat stabilized this year after years of unusual volatility during the pandemic, making it easier for B.C. forestry companies to plan their business activities, analysts say. A thousand board feet (mbf) of mixed species lumber (spruce, pine, … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":83726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS housing demand expected push lumber prices higher in 2024 - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-housing-demand-expected-push-lumber-prices-higher-in-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US housing demand expected push lumber prices higher in 2024 - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lumber prices have somewhat stabilized this year after years of unusual volatility during the pandemic, making it easier for B.C. forestry companies to plan their business activities, analysts say. 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