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The situation on the European softwood lumber market remains mixed, as various factors continue to impact supply and demand. One significant influence has been the Ukrainian crisis, which has prolonged the overreactions that emerged during the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, the market experiences fluctuations where demand is either significantly lower than consumption or considerably higher.<\/span><\/p>\n In the United States, consumption of softwood lumber has reached its lowest point, evident by the sharp decline in single-family dwellings and building permits. Comparing April 2023 to the same period in 2022, single-family dwellings fell by -28.1%, while building permits decreased by -21.2%. However, there are positive indications of a recovery, as forecasts for individual housing in 2023 show encouraging signs. Despite this, Europe continues to increase its market share in the USA, with a notable growth of +25% in exports from January to April 2023 compared to the corresponding period in 2022, reaching a total of 1.79 million cubic meters.<\/p>\n Europe has now acquired a 16% market share of softwood lumber imports in the USA. However, the European market itself presents several disparities and is preparing to face a potential slowdown in new construction. For instance, individual housing starts in France witnessed a significant decline of -18% in January to April 2023 compared to the previous year. Moreover, both Europe and the United Kingdom have substantially reduced their imports during the third and fourth quarters of 2022, as well as the first quarter of 2023. As a result, inventory levels remain low in many markets, with a resumption of orders from the General Sales Branch (GSB), despite strong tension from traders who aim to maintain minimal inventories.<\/p>\n The complex dynamics of the global market make it challenging to accurately determine the real balance between production and consumption. Factors such as the fluctuating demand, loss of Russian volume to Europe without compensation from other sources, and ongoing and anticipated production reductions contribute to this uncertainty.<\/p>\n In France, the renovation market is expected to play a crucial role in maintaining demand throughout the year, particularly in 2024 when the new construction market is anticipated to be depressed. This shift in focus towards renovation projects reflects the need to adapt to the changing landscape and find alternative avenues to sustain the lumber industry.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The situation on the European softwood lumber market remains mixed, as various factors continue to impact supply and demand. One significant influence has been the Ukrainian crisis, which has prolonged the overreactions that emerged during the Covid-19 pandemic. As a … Continue reading