![\"\"](\"https:\/\/timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/lumber-1-42.jpeg\")
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-US lumber prices have crashed by over 70% from last year\u2019s high.<\/em><\/p>\n -This decline is mostly because of the falling housing starts and building permits.<\/em><\/p>\n -Analysts warn that house prices could drop by about 10% in the coming months.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n US lumber prices have gone sideways in the past few months as investors focus on the housing market and the falling commodities market. Lumber was trading at $400 per thousand board feet, which is a few points below the year-to-date low of $361. It has crashed by more than 72% from the highest point in 2022.<\/p>\n Lumber is an important commodity that is mostly used in the housing sector. As a result, lumber prices tend to underperform in periods of high-interest rates and mortgage rates. In the past few months, the Fed has hiked rates from 0% to almost 5% while the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has jumped to almost 6.5%.<\/p>\n The rising interest rates have led to a major slowdown in the housing sector. Housing starts, which measures the annualized change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction, has been in a downward trend. Building permits have also been falling in the past few months. After peaking at 1.89 million in January 2022, permits have dropped to 1.42 million in February.<\/p>\n Lumber prices forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n All these factors explain why lumber prices have been in a strong downward trend in the past few months after surging during the pandemic.<\/p>\n There is a likelihood that the housing market will continue struggling in the coming months. In a statement, a Moody\u2019s analyst warned that house prices will drop by between 5% and 10% in the next 2 years. Affordable home prices could lead to more housing demand, which will lead to higher lumber prices in the near term.<\/p>\n There are signs that lumber prices are bottoming. On the daily chart, we can see that they have struggled moving below the key support level at $361. This price can be said to be a triple-bottom, which is usually a bullish sign. It has moved slightly below the key support at $460, the lowest point in August 2021.<\/p>\n Therefore, while it is too early to tell, and while volume is still low, there is a likelihood that lumber prices will crawl back in the next few months. If this happens, lumber could move to the next key resistance point at $534, which is ~35% above the current level.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" -US lumber prices have crashed by over 70% from last year\u2019s high. -This decline is mostly because of the falling housing starts and building permits. -Analysts warn that house prices could drop by about 10% in the coming months. US … Continue reading