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The past year has been tough enough for the Chinese economy since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020.\u00a0The country's main economic hub and one of its largest cities, Shanghai, has been closed for at least two months.\u00a0There are many high-tech enterprises and factories located in Shanghai, and Shanghai is also a logistics center for international trade.\u00a0Thus, the closure of Shanghai affected not only the economy of the city, but also the development of the economy of all other cities in the country.<\/p>\n
In 2022, China's GDP growth was only 3%.\u00a0In 2020, the GDP growth rate was 8.3%.\u00a0During the pandemic, people were reluctant to buy new things and preferred to save money.\u00a0Thus, real estate sales in 2022 decreased by 24.3%.<\/p>\n
Despite the decline in the volume of real estate sold, it can't be said that the market for finishing materials and furniture was bad, because over the past 6 years more than 1.6 billion sq.m. have been commissioned annually.<\/p>\n
Real estate is closely related to wood consumption.\u00a0Decreased sales in the real estate market led to a decrease in wood consumption.\u00a0This can be seen in the country's sales of roundwood and sawn timber, as well as timber imports, which fell by 22% last year.<\/p>\n
The final figures for 2022 for domestic timber turnover are not yet known, but overall consumption has declined in the past year, with softwood accounting for the bulk of the decline in imports. Last year, softwood log imports decreased by 31 million cubic meters (38%), while sawn softwood imports decreased by 23 million cubic meters (16%).<\/p>\n
At the same time, hardwood imports remain stable.\u00a0Imports of sawn hardwood amounted to 14 million cubic meters, i.\u0435.\u00a0increased by 9%, and the volume of imported hardwood logs amounted to 13 million cubic meters, i.e.\u00a0decreased by 9%.<\/p>\n
For the first time, sawn timber imports exceeded roundwood imports.<\/p>\n
If you look at the supplying countries, then the main volumes of supplies of both round timber and sawn softwood come from several countries.\u00a0The main suppliers of softwood logs are New Zealand and Germany, while sawn timber comes mainly from Russia.<\/p>\n
If you look at the list of countries supplying hardwood, it is very diverse.\u00a0The geography of countries importing roundwood can be called balanced - the leaders are Papua New Guinea, Russia and the Solomon Islands, and Thailand is the main supplier of sawn timber.<\/p>\n
What other changes have occurred in timber imports?<\/strong><\/p>\n The hubs through which forest products were distributed changed last year.\u00a0From Europe to China, products are mainly delivered by land transport.\u00a0Some inland ports have become new hubs for China-Europe trains, such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and Nangkang.<\/p>\n Thanks to rail transportation from Europe to China, much attention is paid to both multimodal and intermodal transport.\u00a0This leads to the emergence of new distribution centers, while the importance of old hubs is declining (such as Suifenhe and Manzhouli, which were traditional border points).<\/p>\n In the new cities - distribution centers, wood receives primary processing, which was not the case in traditional transport hubs, where there were no such processors.\u00a0This reduces the attractiveness of transportation via traditional routes and companies leave cities such as Sunfeihe and Manjouli, which are in dire need of transformation.<\/p>\n Another change is that China's largest softwood import port has moved from Taicang City to Rizhao. In the next three years, the government of Taicang plans to stop wood phytosanitary treatment, which has led many traders and manufacturers to leave Taicang and move to Rizhao, as well as some inland areas along the rivers, such as Changshu and Zhenjiang.<\/p>\n What is happening now?<\/strong><\/p>\n The central and regional government in China is focused on the economic development of the country.\u00a0 The Chinese central government plans to get GDP growth of 5.5%, the IMF forecast is 5.2%.\u00a0In the development of industry, the emphasis is on high-tech, environmental friendliness and artificial intelligence.\u00a0After three years of a pandemic, the stability and security of supply chains is being given the utmost attention.<\/p>\n How about the real estate?<\/strong><\/p>\n As mentioned earlier, the Chinese timber industry complex is closely related to the real estate market.\u00a0 An explosive growth is not expected in the real estate market, because the central government has already set a limit on the speculative transactions of homeowners.<\/p>\n Thus, the growth of demand in the market of new buildings has practically stopped.\u00a0The situation does not inspire optimism, the demand for sawn softwood is frozen.<\/p>\n It is impossible to say exactly what will happen to the real estate market. On the one hand, the Chinese industry is in relatively good condition. There is a deferred demand since last year for finishing materials, for example, from young families who are preparing new homes for themselves.<\/p>\n But, compared to previous years, the factories note a smaller number of orders.\u00a0It remains to be hoped that orders will still reach the factories.\u00a0With greater certainty, it will be possible to judge the situation on the market in March-April 2023.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The past year has been tough enough for the Chinese economy since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020.\u00a0The country’s main economic hub and one of its largest cities, Shanghai, has been closed for at least two months.\u00a0There are many high-tech … Continue reading