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A severe recession in 2022 replaced the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 as the main force disrupting trade and wreaking havoc across the global timber industry.<\/p>\n
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the confusion. Global timber traders have spent much of last year adjusting to trade sanctions against Russia by European and American countries and struggling through widespread uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Lumber price recovery based on global economy<\/strong><\/p>\n The prospect of prices and trading trends returning this year to be more in line with pre-pandemic historical patterns appears to depend largely on how the global economy succeeds in recovering from the downward spiral that has rattled most major consumer markets in 2022.<\/p>\n Most forecasts suggest U.S. prices will return to pre-pandemic levels this year. Between 2015 and 2019, the five years before the COVID-19 outbreak, combined prices ranged from $330 to $460.<\/p>\n Weak consumption and reduced mill profits will lead to another decline in total North American softwood lumber sawn capacity in 2023. Annual North American softwood lumber exports to overseas destinations fell for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 through October. Canada's offshore exports plummeted to 1.125 billion board feet through October, down 27% from 2021 levels. US overseas shipments fell 22% to 337 million board feet.<\/p>\n No signs of recovery in export markets<\/strong><\/p>\n The global downward spiral could ease somewhat in 2023, but a rebound seems unlikely as the fog that plagues the market shows no signs of lifting this year. U.S. and Canadian exporters continue to lose market share from China and Japan to Europe and Russia.<\/p>\n A sluggish European economy has dampened continental demand for North American varieties and forced European producers to boost exports to compensate for weak domestic sales.<\/p>\n Conversely, as of last October, European exports to the U.S. were growing at a record pace, 13% faster than the all-time high in 2021. Traders expect the US to remain an attractive market for European exporters in the first half of the year. Even if competition in the U.S. market returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the U.S. could still offer strong returns for European suppliers compared with other global destinations.<\/p>\n The Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised uncertainty in the global economy to \"levels not seen in decades\". The duration and outcome of the conflict will seriously affect the European economy, especially energy supply and costs.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A severe recession in 2022 replaced the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 as the main force disrupting trade and wreaking havoc across the global timber industry. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the confusion. Global timber traders have spent much … Continue reading