{"id":83305,"date":"2022-12-01T09:19:31","date_gmt":"2022-12-01T09:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/global-demand-timber-grow-fourfold-2050\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:58:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:58:59","slug":"global-demand-timber-grow-fourfold-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/global-demand-timber-grow-fourfold-2050\/","title":{"rendered":"Global demand for timber could grow fourfold by 2050"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The World Bank forecasts that global timber demand will quadruple by 2050, driven by economic and population growth. Gresham House , the London-based specialist alternative asset manager, has a lower estimate but is still forecasting that global timber consumption will surge by 170% over the next 30 years, driven by urbanisation, decarbonisation and housing demand. It forecasts timber consumption will increase by 3.1% a year over the next 30 years up to 2050, up from 1.1% a year during the past 20 years.<\/p>\n

The vast majority of global commercial timber supply is sourced from temperate forests in the northern hemisphere (Canada, the US, northern Europe and Russia) and plantations in Oceania (New Zealand and Australia). These climates are conducive to the growing of softwood timber. However, the increase in urban dwellers is concentrated in regions with insufficient resources of mature timber. Consumers from China, India, Indonesia, Asia and Africa are driving increased demand from the traditional sources of supply.<\/p>\n

Russia is world\u2019s largest exporter of softwood<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2022, international sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have hampered timber supplies from the country, the world\u2019s largest exporter of softwood timber. Supplies from Belarus have also dropped. Furthermore, the conflict has severely hamstrung production in Ukraine. The three countries accounted for one-quarter of the worldwide timber trade in 2021, according to industry figures. They exported 8.5 million cubic metres of softwood to Europe last year, just under 10% of the region\u2019s demand. Russia \u2013 which has 20% of the planet\u2019s forests and is the world\u2019s largest exporter of softwood \u2013 alone produces about 40 million cubic metres a year. The country\u2019s exported forest products were valued at more than $12bn in 2021.<\/p>\n

Ukraine, Russia and Belarus account for around 35% of the world\u2019s forests certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (Fsc ) and their exports of sustainable timber and biomass play a crucial role in the global markets for sustainable timber products. FSC certification is supposed to ensure that products come from responsibly managed forests that provide environmental, social and economic benefits.<\/p>\n

Timber-producing and exporting countries are taking steps to make up the shortfall, including loosening some environmental protections to increase production. Soon after February\u2019s invasion, for example, Ukraine lifted a regulation that prohibits logging in protected forests during spring and early summer. Furthermore, Estonia announced a relaxation of logging restrictions on state-owned land, which is home to about half of the country\u2019s forests.<\/p>\n

The Ukraine crisis has had a big impact on timber prices in 2022. The Global Sawlog Price Index, representing 20 regions worldwide, jumped by 34% from $68 per cubic metre (\/m3) in the second half of 2020 to $92\/m3 in the second half of 2022. The current index is substantially higher than its ten-year average of $78\/m3 and is the highest level on record since it was established in 1995.<\/p>\n

\"One-third of all Russian timber is exported to China,\u201d says Peter Feilberg, executive director at Preferred by Nature , a non-profit organisation. \u201cA significant share of this will be processed and sold on to the European market. Controlling whether any of these products coming from China includes wood that has been harvested in Russia, will clearly be a challenge to the EU.\u201d<\/p>\n

Further forestry plantations could be the answer<\/strong><\/p>\n

Plantations make up around 3% of the global forested area, according to the WWF. Their size has jumped by almost 40% over the past two decades. Plantations fall into two main categories. First, there are those that follow the \u2018new generation plantations platform\u2019, which aims to incorporate ecological management and social principles. Second, intensively managed monoculture plantations exist focused on industrialised production. Land constraints are a major issue for the latter type of plantation. There is evidence that it is displacing cropland as well as expanding into biodiversity hotspots. Its negative impacts include increased water scarcity, water pollution and depleted soil fertility.<\/p>\n

With correct silvicultural management, around 70% of the value of a tree is in the sawlog \u2013 a log large enough to be suitable for sawing or making into lumber \u2013 and it is the main driver of timber prices for plantation owners.<\/p>\n

Within the past decade, almost 12% of the world\u2019s forest cover has been certified with sustainable standards such as certification from the FSC and the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC). The PEFC is an international, non-profit, non-governmental organisation that promotes sustainable forest management through independent third-party certification. Both standards have now suspended all trade of certified wood from Belarus and Russia.<\/p>\n

Timber consumption is expected to overtake realistic sustainable supply during the next couple of decades. The move into more inaccessible, harder to reach timber supplies will drive up the cost of timber extraction and support increased global timber prices.<\/p>\n

The greatest concern is that the surging demand for timber \u2013 partly because of the drive to net zero \u2013 will lead to a lot more illegal logging in jurisdictions that do not conserve forests properly or regulate deforestation. The timber value chain is a complicated one and it is hard to ensure wood only comes from forests certified with sustainable standards. Furthermore, there just is not enough of this kind of timber around. The biggest risk is to the forests of the Congo basin. By African standards, the sums of money involved are massive and there is a real danger than huge swathes of the forest will be lost.<\/p>\n

One of the priorities must be where and how plantations are established and managed. Excessive and wasteful consumption of wood in the Western world must also be lowered to reduce pressure on the world\u2019s forests. Nonetheless, the future potential for sustainable timber supply appears modest compared with future expectations about timber demand.<\/p>\n

At COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, policymakers must start to think hard about the role of timber in national decarbonisation strategies. Currently, humanity is asking too much from the world\u2019s forests. They cannot supply a lot of the materials for the energy transition and undertake carbon sequestering at the same time. The paradox is that \u2013 in moving to climate neutrality \u2013 mankind may end up destroying a lot of the world\u2019s forests and carbon sinks.<\/p>\n

\"\"The developing world\u2019s consumption of timber jumped by 30% between 2005 and 2015 and it now consumes more industrial roundwood than the developed world. The growth was largely driven by China, whose consumption surged by 69% between 2005 and 2015. It is now the second-largest timber-consuming country after the US.<\/p>\n

The size of the global timber and wood product market was estimated at $591bn in 2021 and $626bn in 2022, according to researchandmarkets.com, a market intelligence company. It is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.11% to reach $844bn by 2027.<\/p>\n

The reasons people consume timber around the world differ markedly. Europeans, for example, consume almost twice as much as the global average. The vast majority of removals in Africa, Asia and South America are for woodfuel, while almost 90% of removals in North America and 80% in Europe are for industrial purposes, according to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF ).<\/p>\n

The construction industry accounts for 36% of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency. Many developed countries have set targets to reduce emissions from the construction industry. For example, the EU wants to reduce the sector\u2019s emissions by 90% by 2050.<\/p>\n

The fastest way to achieve this target is through the use of timber to replace steel, concrete and aluminium. During its production, one metric tonne of concrete releases 159kg of CO2 into the atmosphere, steel 1,240kg and aluminium 9,300kg. Wood, however, absorbs a net 1,700kg from the atmosphere, over and above the energy expended in growing, harvesting and processing it. Already \u2018plyscrapers\u2019 \u2013 skyscrapers made at least partly of wood \u2013 are springing up all over Europe.<\/p>\n

Wood also helps reduce energy consumption. Wood\u2019s unique cellular structure, which makes it a poor conductor of heat, makes it ten times more insulating than concrete, 400 times more than steel and 1,700 times more than aluminium. A 2.5cm-thick timber wall panel provides better thermal resistance than an 11.5cm brick wall.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe additional future demand for timber can be broken down into three core drivers,\u201d says Olly Hughes, managing director of forestry at Gresham House. \u201cFirstly, there is population growth, but it is really the urbanisation of that population. We are seeing a significant increase in the urbanisation of the population globally and there is a direct correlation between urbanisation and timber consumption.<\/p>\n

\u201cSecondly, there is a chronic shortage of housing globally and there needs to be a fundamental shift in housing and the transition of housing. Thirdly, the decarbonisation of the economy is under way. A very significant proportion of carbon emissions comes from construction, predominantly in the form of aluminium and steel. Timber is a perfectly good replacement material for construction. For example, in countries including France there is now a mandate that all public buildings must be constructed with at least 50% timber.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The World Bank forecasts that global timber demand will quadruple by 2050, driven by economic and population growth. 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