{"id":83145,"date":"2022-11-03T10:08:45","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T10:08:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/european-sawn-softwood-production-demand-expected-cool-h2-2022\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:58:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:58:43","slug":"european-sawn-softwood-production-demand-expected-cool-h2-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/european-sawn-softwood-production-demand-expected-cool-h2-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"European sawn softwood production and demand expected to cool down in H2\/2022"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Sawn softwood production in EOS (European Organization of the Sawmill Industry) countries has been growing for a number of years with the exception of 2019. Last year on the back of strong demand in H1 (on both sides of the Atlantic) production sharply grew to record level (+4.3% to almost 89.5 million m3). In H2 markets cooled down significantly and production in the DACH (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) countries increased less than expected.<\/p>\n

Overall, sawmills were often producing at capacity during 2021. Moreover, many countries, both in Central Europe and in Scandinavia, have reported capacity increases in 2021 and some even in 2022 with no countries reporting capacity decreases. Production was brisk at the start of 2022 as well, but the war in Ukraine will probably have serious repercussions even on the European sawmill industry with many countries expecting a weaker H2 2022 amid unusually high unpredictability.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Availability of raw materials is declining across the DACH area, mainly due to the wet and cool Spring 2021 in Central Europe: the beetle-damaged wood was much less abundant than in previous years. In the Nordics instead availability of logs is still generally evaluated as medium or medium-high. Also, some countries have reported the introduction of legislation which is making the felling of logs more challenging. The difficult supply of logs will be an issue which will dominate the markets in coming years.<\/p>\n

Overseas deliveries keep representing an important market driver for many companies across Europe with slightly less than one quarter of production exported: this percentage is declining due to strong demand within Europe. In 2021 the United States is once again the standout market while deliveries to China declined.<\/p>\n

With a projected production of 25.3 million m3 in 2021 (+0.4% vs 2020) Germany remains the largest sawn softwood producer within the EOS community. Sweden ranks second with just over 19 million m3 in 2021 (+2.4% vs 2020). Finland remains the third largest producer with 11.9 million m3 (+9.3% vs 2020), ahead of Austria with 10.5 million m3 (+1.8% vs 2020). France remains the fifth largest producer with 7 million m3 (+11.8% vs 2020).<\/p>\n

Production is expected to be more or less stable in 2022 but volatility is high and downside risks are strong, while the consumers appetite for wood remains high with wood as a building material doing well across Europe.<\/p>\n

Overview of sawn softwood consumption\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In this group of countries (EOS+UK), sawn softwood demand increased by a record 6% in 2021 but a slowdown is expected this year even though the exceptionally high uncertainty makes predictions especially challenging. Exceptionally high demand in H1 2021 amid supply bottlenecks drove sawnwood prices upwards. In the long-term it is expected that prices will stabilize at a higher level than in the prepandemic period.<\/p>\n

In spite of a market cooling in H2, the beginning of 2022 started briskly but the outlook is now uncertain due to the turmoil triggered by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sawnwood originating from Belarus, Ukraine and Russia made up about 10% of total European consumption so demand for European softwood produced in EOS countries might further increase as the lack of material originating from countries at war might trigger sawnwood shortages across Europe. The European sawmill industry remains a net exporter of sawn softwood so it is possible that some missing lumber from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine can be compensated by internal production.<\/p>\n

However, high inflation might push the European Central Bank to increase interest rates thus depressing demand.<\/p>\n

There is also a widespread shortage of building materials which might make the outlook for the construction market worse than it is believed. In short, there are different factors pushing the outlook for demand in different directions, but downside risks abound.<\/p>\n

On the brighter side wood as a building material keeps gaining market share and it is a material of choice for many consumers particularly since the beginning of the pandemic. At any rate, the EOS Members expect a demand decline of 2% in 2022.<\/p>\n

Total softwood produced in EOS countries might further increase as the lack of material originating from countries at war might trigger sawnwood shortages across Europe. The European sawmill industry remains a net exporter of sawn softwood so it is possible that some missing lumber from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine can be compensated by internal production.<\/p>\n

However, high inflation might push the European Central Bank to increase interest rates thus depressing demand. There is also a widespread shortage of building materials which might make the outlook for the construction market worse than it is believed. In short, there are different factors pushing the outlook for demand in different directions, but downside risks abound.<\/p>\n

On the brighter side wood as a building material keeps gaining market share and it is a material of choice for many consumers particularly since the beginning of the pandemic. At any rate, the EOS Members expect a demand decline of 2% in 2022.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/h2>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sawn softwood production in EOS (European Organization of the Sawmill Industry) countries has been growing for a number of years with the exception of 2019. 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