The prices of finished wood products fall significantly, while the entire European sawmill sector is currently experiencing through a very wait-and-see market among buyers. Since the spring's extreme peak in the price of wood products, the order situation until now has fallen rapidly, which has led to stocks being replenished and prices falling by 20\u201340 percent, depending on quality, market and producer. The business contracts will continue to be signed there, but for shorter periods of time. In the sawmill industry you don't really know if prices will fall further or if they have already reached the bottom, writes Danske Bank.<\/p>\n
Russian timber and wood products have continued to enter the European market, despite the market's belief that Russia's and Belarus' timber exports would be completely cut off after the invasion of Ukraine.\u00a0The market greatly overestimated the immediate effect of the war and many bought in large volumes at high prices in the belief that Russia's and Belarus's timber would disappear completely, which was not the case.\u00a0In the EU's sanctions decision, continued imports from Russia were approved until July 10 if the purchase contract was signed before the sanctions decision.\u00a0Now no timber is imported from Russia anymore, which could provide a better timber market in the near future.<\/p>\n
Many hope that the US and China will be able to further relieve the saturated European market.\u00a0European sawmills already export 4 million cubic meters to the United States, which corresponds to 10 percent of the United States' wood product imports.\u00a027 million cubic meters of wood products were exported to China before the start of the pandemic in 2019. Now exports to China have decreased by up to 40 percent, which shows the potential for increased exports again if China opens up.<\/p>\n
\"Our forecast is that a price bottom will be at a significantly higher level than the last recession.\u00a0We believe that wood will be a scarce product that is prioritized to a higher degree in a variety of different uses.\u00a0The cost situation for the sawmills has increased mainly for wood and energy at the same time as the cost situation for competing materials such as steel, aluminum and concrete has increased even more.\u00a0All this suggests that wooden products will be able to maintain a higher price position than before,\" writes Danske Bank.<\/p>\n
Timber and pulpwood<\/strong><\/p>\n Danske Bank believes that it can generally be said that the demand for forest raw materials is at a record high.\u00a0The sawmills have until now been running at maximum capacity and the pulp industry has achieved astronomically good results.\u00a0Now, however, sawmills are cutting back on their sawing while the pulp industry continues to produce.\u00a0Danske Bank predicts a continued insatiable need for pulpwood for the pulp mills and a large demand for energy wood in the future in the wake of the electricity crisis.<\/p>\n In recent years, the sawmills' record production has supplied the pulp industry with raw material, partly with pulpwood from fellings but not least with the by-product cellulose chips.\u00a0As a result, pulpwood prices have had a calmer development, while timber prices have steered towards record levels.\u00a0However, this may change in the future, according to Danske Bank, which lists five factors that point to a feverish pulpwood market.<\/p>\n Danske Bank's advice to forest owners<\/strong><\/p>\n The market is in a very special situation now.\u00a0The industry is crying out for raw materials at the same time as the turnaround has already taken place in sawn wood products.<\/p>\n \"If you, as a forest owner, have thought about contracting final felling, we judge that you should do so,\" they write.<\/p>\n Regarding further increases in the future, Danske Bank predicts that there may be room for it, especially for energy wood.<\/p>\n \"However, it is timber that is your cash generator and the timber prices that determine the decisions\", they write.<\/p>\n A quick turnaround with falling prices is not believed at the moment.<\/p>\n \"We believe that timber prices will remain at high levels for the rest of the year.\u00a0Having said that, if many people sell their fellings this autumn and the sawmills increase their standing stock, then of course prices will fall,\" writes Danske Bank.<\/p>\n Factors that may point to a flattening market already\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Factors that speak for a continued price drop\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n The prices of finished wood products fall significantly, while the entire European sawmill sector is currently experiencing through a very wait-and-see market among buyers. Since the spring’s extreme peak in the price of wood products, the order situation until now … Continue reading \n
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