{"id":82934,"date":"2022-09-20T07:24:57","date_gmt":"2022-09-20T07:24:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/trends-global-wood-markets-expect-end-year\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:58:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:58:15","slug":"trends-global-wood-markets-expect-end-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/trends-global-wood-markets-expect-end-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Trends in the global wood markets: What to expect for the end of the year?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

For the global wood industry the end of 2022 seems to be as turbulent as in the pandemic years. The energy crisis in Europe, the rollercoaster price trends in US softwood lumber, the falling Chinese demand for both softwood logs and softwood lumber imports and also the global inflationist tendency and the war in Ukraine are marking this end of the year. GWMI is trying to sum up a few of these trends in order to give a clue of what to expect for this end of the year.<\/p>\n

Energy crisis in Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n

The European Union is currently fighting with the crisis caused by Russia's gas cuts, which last year supplied 40% of the bloc's demand for fuel. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has this week proposed a target to cut power use, along with measures to funnel energy company profits to struggling consumers.<\/p>\n

In Estonia, some sawmills may need to close by the end of the year, at least temporarily, due to a fall in demand which has already hit timber producers, doubled by the rising energy price. Moreover, given the soaring firewood prices some logging companies prefer to sell the logs as firewood, causing a raw material shortage for sawmills.<\/p>\n

In Germany, the European country which is hit the most by the cut in Russia's gas supply, most timber trade companies expect significant cost increases in the energy sector for the remaining of the year, despite the already significant increase throughout 2022. According to a recent survey carried out among member companies of the German Timber Trade Association (GD Holz), 27% of the respondents expect a significant drop in sales, followed by 55% who expect minor to moderate consequences if the energy supply can't be kept stable this winter.<\/p>\n

In the UK, rising energy costs are likely to affect timber prices in the fourth quarter and Q1\/2023. Currently, there are good stocks of timber and wood-based panels, but stocks at ports are much lower and there are some availabilty issues expected in the next months. Price pressure eased considerably over the summer, but log import prices remain firm as demand for pulp and paper, pallets and firewood is currently very strong in Europe.<\/p>\n

US softwood lumber prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

After falling below the $500 per 1,000 board feet level in August, lumber futures recovered but could only manage another lower high.<\/p>\n

Many market participants had hoped that two consecutive quarterly GDP declines, signaling a recession, would cause the Fed to pause on its hawkish path of increasing short-term interest rates and reducing its swollen balance sheet. However, the comments from the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming gathering indicate that the central bank will continue to use monetary policy to combat the highest inflation in over four decades.<\/p>\n

Rising interest rates and a strong US dollar have weighed on all commodity prices, and lumber is no exception.<\/p>\n

At the $471 level on the November futures contract, lumber remained under pressure on September 1.<\/p>\n

As the winter approaches,\u00a0 new home construction tends to decline, weighing on lumber demand. There is an element of seasonality in the lumber market as it reached the $448 low in August 2021 with the fall and winter on the horizon. However, in 2022, the upcoming offseason faces rising interest rates. At the end of 2021, thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage rates were below the 3% level, and they recently were over 6%, double the level nine months ago. On a $300,000 mortgage, a 3% increase boosts monthly payments by $750 per month, which weighs on demand for existing homes and new construction that consumes lumber.<\/p>\n

Lumber prices face an almost perfect bearish storm as we move into the fall and winter of 2022.<\/p>\n

China's falling demand for both softwood logs and lumber<\/strong><\/p>\n

The implementation of pandemic prevention and control measures in China in the first half of the year had a great impact on logistics, transportation and timber market recovery.<\/p>\n

From January to July this year, China's softwood lumber imports fell by 21% year-on-year to 9.2 million cubic meters, and the import value fell by 4% to 2.2 billion US dollars. In addition, affected by factors such as rising international oil prices, the average price of imported softwood lumber rose by 21% to US$243 per cubic meter.<\/p>\n

China's H1\/2022 softwood log imports plummeted 39% to 15.16 million cubic meters, accounting for 68% of the national total. However, the average price for imported softwood logs rose 17% to US$166 (CIF) per cubic meter over the same period.<\/p>\n

The third quarter is usually a low season for wood consumption. On the one hand, affected by the hot weather from July to August, the Chinese construction industry has entered a traditional off-season, the market transaction volume is limited, and the construction site operating rate and wood consumption have dropped significantly. On the other hand, from July to August this year, there were many companies with power cuts and maintenance shutdowns, which also affected the overall market demand.<\/p>\n

Russia expected to see double-digit drop in wood product exports<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russian sawn timber exports, which have been sanctioned by the EU along with other wood products since July 10, were up 3.4% in the January-June period. Russian companies are trying to adjust their export focus to the Middle East and Asia, experts predict a double-digit decline in exports of products such as pellets, sawn timber and plywood.<\/p>\n

Shipments abroad by Russian timber exporters rose 3.4 percent to 13.4 million cubic meters in the first half of the year. Demand from Russia's friendly countries increased by 8%, laying the foundation for export growth.<\/p>\n

Timber exports to friendly countries accounted for 72% (9.6 million cubic meters) of Russian timber exports. China imported more than 6.5 million cubic meters, about half of total shipments. Uzbekistan came in second with more than 976,000 cubic meters of imports. Meanwhile, unfriendly countries, mainly the European Union and the United States, reduced their imports by almost 7% to 3.8 million cubic meters.<\/p>\n

Most market participants believe that the trend of import growth in the first half of the year will not continue in the remaining months of 2022, on the contrary, a sharp decline is inevitable. This is mainly due to the fact that EU sanctions on imports of Russian timber and its main processed products came into effect on July 10.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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For the global wood industry the end of 2022 seems to be as turbulent as in the pandemic years. 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