{"id":82124,"date":"2022-04-04T11:38:14","date_gmt":"2022-04-04T11:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/near-term-outlook-chinas-logs-lumber-imports-market-uncertain\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:23:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:23:34","slug":"near-term-outlook-chinas-logs-lumber-imports-market-uncertain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/near-term-outlook-chinas-logs-lumber-imports-market-uncertain\/","title":{"rendered":"Near-term outlook of China\u2019s logs and lumber imports market uncertain"},"content":{"rendered":"

Can Russia quickly expand its lumber exports to China?<\/p>\n

Same as last year, there are still many concerns on the global log supplies to China, such as harvest reductions in New Zealand and Europe; fewer arrivals from South America given the high shipping cost; almost no supplies of SYP due to the new regulation and no supplies from Russia and Australia. Moreover, the SPF and SYP lumber imports from North America is predicted to further decline in the coming months due to the new inspection regulations for Pinewood Nematode (PWN). All those supply constraints have resulted in a rapid growth of C&F prices offered from international suppliers in January and February this year. Recent RMB currency appreciation has been helpful for Chinese companies to accept higher C&F prices offered by overseas suppliers, either in US$ or Euro. Higher prices accepted in China could drive higher volume shipped to China in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Lumber shipments from Ukraine and Belarus to China have been severely impacted by the current conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, European lumber supplies to China will be limited as well, as the European market will reduce imports of Russian supplies, and European exports will fill that market. Russian lumber supplies are expected to have higher volume and competitive prices available for the Chinese market in the coming months. However, there are still many uncertainties, mainly with ongoing logistics issues. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how much and how fast the supply of Russian lumber to the Chinese market will grow.<\/p>\n

In addition to those supply issues, there is also uncertainty on the consumption side in China. Chinese wholesale market price has risen quickly as predicted right after the spring festival, but it began to fall at the end of February. The consumption demands from end-user sides was weak, and the sawmill operation rate is at around 30-40% (six-weeks after the Spring festival). The policy loosening to accelerate real-estate loans and ensure growth in both residential mortgages and loans to developers over the next few months could lead to the positive construction activities and timber consumption growth soon. Despite the weak demand and high inventories (for both logs and lumber), Chinese importers and distributors do expect the prices remaining high given the prediction of low new arrivals in recent months. The alternative solutions will play an important role in 2022.<\/p>\n

How quickly can Russia ramp up its lumber exports to China?<\/strong><\/p>\n