{"id":81970,"date":"2022-03-07T10:12:14","date_gmt":"2022-03-07T10:12:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/us-lumber-price-sits-near-last-year-record-high\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:57:06","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:57:06","slug":"us-lumber-price-sits-near-last-year-record-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-price-sits-near-last-year-record-high\/","title":{"rendered":"US lumber price sits near last year record high"},"content":{"rendered":"

A 50% technical retracement of the move from the May 2021 high to the August low is $1,099.60 per 1,000 board feet level. On March 2, 2022, the nearby\u00a0lumber futures contract\u00a0was over the $1400 level. Lumber futures moved back above the $1,000 level in December 2021. Since then, they have held $900 and were approaching a test of the all-time high in early March.<\/p>\n

Lumber futures do not offer liquidity as daily volume, and the total number of open long and short positions is low. When lumber prices move, they tend to gap higher or lower, and bids to buy disappear as the price falls and offers to sell evaporate during rallies. In January 2021, lumber futures experienced three consecutive days when the price moved down the daily limit, trapping those holding long positions with no chance to sell. In February, the tables turned as the March lumber futures moved limit up on six consecutive sessions, trapping any market participant holding a short risk position with no way to liquidate and take a loss.<\/p>\n

Lumber\u2019s liquidity makes it a futures market to watch as a barometer of wood fundamentals, but trading is a dangerous game. Over the coming weeks and months, lumber volatility is likely to continue.<\/div>\n

Lumber is in backwardation<\/strong><\/p>\n

The forward curve in the lumber market tells us that supply concerns are pushing the price higher.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The forward curve\u00a0in the illiquid lumber futures market shows that nearby prices are substantially higher than lumber prices for deferred delivery. A backwardation in lumber\u2019s forward curve is a sign of supply shortages in the wood market.<\/p>\n

US and Canadian wildfires have limited production<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fires in US and Canadian timberlands have reduced timber supplies. Meanwhile, a labor shortage at mills and decreased supplies have fueled higher prices. US tariffs on Canadian lumber are pushing prices higher. Canadian lumber is critical for US new home building. John Duncanson, Croton Capital\u2019s timber analyst, recently pointed out that \u201cthe jump we\u2019ve seen in lumber prices since they bottomed out last fall has added above $19,000 to the cost of a new\u00a0<\/em>home.\u201d He went on to say,<\/p>\n

\u201cThe ongoing trade war between Canada and the US on lumber imports, 30% of that $19,000 additional costs to host 30% of that, I calculate to be just the Canadian lumber duties or the duties on Canadian lumber going into the States. It\u2019s about 2\u2014it\u2019s close to $200 to $300 per 1,000 board feet. So it\u2019s significant. And those\u2014the duty rates went up actually in November. The first week in December, they went up to 18%.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr. Duncanson went on the say, \u201cmill shutdowns in Canada are going to keep the market extremely tight well into 2023.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Supply chain bottlenecks continue to plague the lumber market<\/strong><\/p>\n

Labor problems at mills and wildfires in the US and Canada have weighed on supplies, but transportation issues have only exacerbated the problems. Canadian truckers were recently protesting a vaccine mandate by the Canadian government on truckers entering Canada from the United States. In February, US Department of Homeland Security officials issued a bulletin warning that American truckers could begin protesting COVID-19 restrictions along the nation\u2019s highways.<\/p>\n

There is already a shortage of truckers, and fuel prices are skyrocketing. Transporting lumber from the US or Canadian mills to consumers has become challenging, as bottlenecks are lifting prices.<\/p>\n

Russia is a leading timber producer- Sanctions could create shortages<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another factor that could weigh on global timber supplies is that Russia and some allies are leading wood-producing countries.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The chart shows that Russia, India, and China are leading worldwide timber producers, which could cause a lumber shortage.<\/p>\n

The US, Europe, and allies have slapped Russia with sanctions on trade and banking. Retaliatory measures are likely, which could include embargos and trade bans. Lumber is one of the many commodities caught in the current deteriorating geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n

Lumber is coming up on the first anniversary of the record peak<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nearby lumber prices were sitting abovr the $1400 per 1,000 board feet level as the anniversary of the all-time high approaches.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The long-term chart\u00a0highlights that lumber traded to a high of $1711.20 per 1,000 boar feet in May 2021. The nearby wood futures price at the $1417.50 level has rallied from the $488 low in August 2021. The next upside technical resistance level sits at the May 2021 high.<\/p>\n

Lumber\u2019s illiquidity only exacerbates the price volatility. Limit-up or limit-down days have become the norm instead of the exception in the lumber futures market.<\/p>\n

While many factors point to a new high in the lumber price, the futures market is dangerous as it does not offer the critical mass in volume and open interest to support risk positions. The lumber futures market is a benchmark to watch and not a market for trading or investing. Lumber is telling us the same thing that\u00a0crude oil,\u00a0gold,\u00a0grains, and many other raw material prices are screaming. Inflation is raging, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine makes anything the US Fed may do with interest rates over the coming weeks a sideshow that will not impact raw material shortages.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A 50% technical retracement of the move from the May 2021 high to the August low is $1,099.60 per 1,000 board feet level. On March 2, 2022, the nearby\u00a0lumber futures contract\u00a0was over the $1400 level. Lumber futures moved back above … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716,4715,4714],"tags":[3306,3286,3252],"class_list":["post-81970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","category-wood-industry-prices","tag-lumber","tag-prices","tag-us","topic-forestry","topic-industry-prices","topic-sawmilling","area-north-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS lumber price sits near last year record high - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-price-sits-near-last-year-record-high\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US lumber price sits near last year record high - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A 50% technical retracement of the move from the May 2021 high to the August low is $1,099.60 per 1,000 board feet level. 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