{"id":81346,"date":"2021-10-18T11:26:16","date_gmt":"2021-10-18T11:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/china-timber-demand-sluggish-despite-start-construction-season\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:56:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:56:17","slug":"china-timber-demand-sluggish-despite-start-construction-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/china-timber-demand-sluggish-despite-start-construction-season\/","title":{"rendered":"China timber demand sluggish despite start of construction season"},"content":{"rendered":"

It looked like things were stabilising in September with in-market pricing seemingly finding a floor level and some exporters even reporting increases, however, once the Evergrande debacle came to press and exposed the greater liquidity issues of many other large Chinese development companies, market sentiment took a turn for the worse.<\/em><\/p>\n

It now seems that Evergrande may only the tip of the iceberg with the Wall Street Journal predicting a day of reckoning in the Chinese development sector to the tune of $US5 trillion.<\/p>\n

The Chinese government is no stranger to throwing large sums of money around, but this is a fair chunk of change even by their standards. It will take a while for this to play out and although it is becoming increasingly likely that Evergrande will get bailed out, to some extent, by the government, there will be a lot of blood on the floor for other development companies, investors and the construction market in general.<\/p>\n

Chinese in-market log inventory has been building over the past few months and Chinese demand has softened. Traditionally, this time of year is the start of the Chinese construction season which sees demand increase substantially, but there are no signs of that eventuating at this point.<\/p>\n

Add to that the Golden Week holiday that has just concluded in China and we are now seeing inventory top the 5 million m3 mark, a level that generally puts significant downward pressure on sales prices.<\/p>\n

This needs to be put into perspective however as the CFR (sales price in China in $US) is still around 20% above the 3-year average. The biggest contributor of low returns to log exporters continues to be freight costs with freight around double the 2020 levels and 15% higher than the pre-GFC when commodities were at record levels.<\/p>\n

There are a number of factors driving this, most of them Covid related.<\/p>\n

Companies that are struggling to move container freight are chartering bulk carriers that would otherwise carry logs. There is evidence of bulk carriers being converted to carry containers under-deck which effectively takes them out of the available bulk fleet.<\/p>\n

Add to this the long wait times at Chinese ports effectively reducing the availability of vessels and it\u2019s a great time to own a bulk carrier.<\/p>\n

There are rumours of some softening in the freight market as vessel owners have started reading the commodity tea leaves but only time will tell if it manifests into lower freight costs.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It looked like things were stabilising in September with in-market pricing seemingly finding a floor level and some exporters even reporting increases, however, once the Evergrande debacle came to press and exposed the greater liquidity issues of many other large … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65177,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716,4715,4714],"tags":[3254,4383,4071],"class_list":["post-81346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","category-wood-industry-prices","tag-china","tag-timber-demand","tag-timber-prices","topic-forestry","topic-industry-prices","topic-sawmilling","area-australia-and-pacific-region","area-china","area-europe","area-north-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina timber demand sluggish despite start of construction season - 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