{"id":81039,"date":"2021-08-02T08:58:28","date_gmt":"2021-08-02T08:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/now-might-best-time-buy-lumber-n-america\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:55:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:55:53","slug":"now-might-best-time-buy-lumber-n-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/now-might-best-time-buy-lumber-n-america\/","title":{"rendered":"Why now might be the best time to buy lumber in N. America?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

After more than doubling in price last year, lumber futures have dropped to their lowest level of 2021, on track to suffer a third-straight monthly decline\u2014potentially offering a \u201csmall window\u201d for buyers to benefit from cheaper prices.<\/em><\/p>\n

This is \u201cprobably the best time for homeowners and builders to make their lumber purchases,\u201d said Todd London, senior vice president of sales for Sherwood Lumber. \u201cThis small window in time has a high probability of representing the absolute best time to buy for a year that has been riddled with supply chain disruptions, uncertainty and volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRemaining on the fence as to whether or not to start your coming project may likely result in missing the best opportunity to buy lumber in all of 2021,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Westline Chief Executive Officer Greg Kuta said that lumber inventory levels have risen, while U.S. consumers' lumber retail demand for house repairs has fallen sharply, causing lumber futures prices to fall.<\/p>\n

Michael Gayed, portfolio manager of ATAC US Rotation Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), believes that lumber prices may still fall further. The fund uses lumber and gold prices to help gauge the volatility of the stock market.<\/p>\n

Gayed said that the recent price drop in the market may be a \"reversal\" of previous unreasonable increases, and a \"mean reversion function\" in commodities. He pointed out that the central idea of \u200b\u200bmean reversion is that asset prices return to historical long-term average levels.<\/p>\n

Gayed explained that in order to achieve mean reversion, the price of wood must return to the historical average and may be lower than the historical average. Therefore, considering the typical historical price range of wood, the price may fall by another 20% to 30%.<\/p>\n

The output on the market has increased recently. A report released by Forisk Consulting in June showed that in the past 12 months, the capacity of sawmills in North America has increased by 1.4 billion board feet, and an additional 1.6 billion board feet will be added in the second half of 2021.<\/p>\n

Joe Sanderson, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Natural Resources at Domain Timber Advisors, said that in the past few months, timber production capacity has increased and sawmill workers have resumed work, which \"has greatly increased supply.\"<\/p>\n

However, Sanderson expects lumber prices to return to \"more normal levels and in line with new housing starts data.\" Given the current building permit data, $550-650 is the \"market equilibrium price.\" He said that this was done without further challenges related to the Covid-19 pandemic, or natural disasters such as catastrophic hurricanes or wildfires causing major disruptions to the supply chain.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Sanderson said that drought conditions may have an impact on lumber prices. The dry environment has increased the risk of fires in many areas of the west coast. \"Due to casualties and logging restrictions, we expect timber production to slow down and lumber prices to rise.\"<\/p>\n

Looking to the future, Todd London of Sherwood Lumber Company said that this year's lumber prices are unlikely to set a new record. On May 7, the lumber futures settlement price reached a record high of 1,670.50 US dollars.<\/p>\n

Even so, London predicts that \u201clumber prices will rise again soon. In the winter months, lumber prices will gradually slow down because of the slowdown in the construction industry in many parts of the US.\u201d For 2022, he expects volatility to increase. and become the main topic of the lumber market.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After more than doubling in price last year, lumber futures have dropped to their lowest level of 2021, on track to suffer a third-straight monthly decline\u2014potentially offering a \u201csmall window\u201d for buyers to benefit from cheaper prices. This is \u201cprobably … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716,4715,4714],"tags":[3945,3405],"class_list":["post-81039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","category-wood-industry-prices","tag-lumber-prices","tag-north-america","topic-forestry","topic-industry-prices","topic-sawmilling","topic-wood-construction","area-north-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy now might be the best time to buy lumber in N. 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