{"id":78730,"date":"2020-02-05T12:32:47","date_gmt":"2020-02-05T12:32:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/global-wood-pellet-prices-forecast-2020\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:52:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:52:32","slug":"global-wood-pellet-prices-forecast-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/global-wood-pellet-prices-forecast-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Global wood pellet prices-forecast 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><em>The price of pellets will be heavily influenced by long-term contracts for wood pellets. In fact, the volatility of the spot market increases because majority of the market is under long-term contract. Since such a large percentage of the market is already under long-term take-or-pay contracts, when the market is in periods of excess demand or excess supply, the majority of the market correction has to take place within the 10-20 per cent of the total market that is traded on spot. In the long run, the contract price and spot price should converge around a market equilibrium price.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4>Historical prices for delivered pellets<\/h4>\n<p>The historical delivered (CIF) price of wood pellets from international trade data. The value and quantity of imported pellets reflects the actual prices that buyers are paying for the fuel. Most pellets are traded under long-term contracts. Some pellets (probably less than 15 per cent of total trade) are traded on the spot market.<span id=\"more-22186\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Argus reports the weekly spot price of pellets. However, the spot price is quite volatile compared to the overall prices paid for imported pellets because the spot price reflects short-term supply and demand imbalances. If the market is in a state of excess supply, prices fall. If the market in a state of excess demand, prices rise. Since the spot market is a small portion of overall pellet trade, supply and demand imbalances have amplified impacts on the spot market. Long-term off-take agreement prices are stable and change only due to the terms of the contract. Below is the Argus spot price history.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/argus-spot-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31230 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/argus-spot-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"491\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>FutureMetrics\u2019 estimates for CIF prices and market shares by major suppliers for the UK, Japan, and South Korea are below. Note that monthly data is somewhat volatile in part due to how the data is gathered and the number of shipment per month for any given month. The trade weighted average price and the trend lines help to see through the volatility. Even with those issues, the estimated pellet prices are far less volatile on a three-month rolling average than the spot prices.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/cif-UK-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31231 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/cif-UK-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"982\" height=\"502\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/mkt-share-UK-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31232 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/mkt-share-UK-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1064\" height=\"534\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/cif-japan-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31233 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/cif-japan-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"921\" height=\"480\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/mkt-share-japan-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31234 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/mkt-share-japan-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"855\" height=\"461\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/cif-korea-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31235 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/cif-korea-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"979\" height=\"496\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/mkt-share-korea-chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31236 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/mkt-share-korea-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"521\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4>Future pellet prices?<\/h4>\n<p>The price of pellets will be heavily influenced by long-term contracts for wood pellets. In fact, as noted above, the volatility of the spot market increases because majority of the market is under long-term contract. Since such a large percentage of the market is already under long-term take-or-pay contracts, when the market is in periods of excess demand or excess supply, the majority of the market correction has to take place within the 10-20 per cent of the total market that is traded on spot. In the long run, the contract price and spot price should converge around a market equilibrium price.<\/p>\n<p>The intrinsic costs of producing and delivering pellets, including typical profit margins, will set the market prices for long-run supply contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Many of the forecast model\u2019s modules use oil prices as a significant source of cost uncertainty. Harvesting and transporting wood to pellet mills, conversion to pellets, transport logistics by truck, rail, and ship, all contain a significant exposure to petroleum costs (such as diesel and bunker fuels). FutureMetrics utilizes the United States Energy Information Administration\u2019s (EIA) forecast for oil prices (West Texas Intermediate or WTI). The chart below shows the EIA forecast (in nominal U.S. dollars assuming two per cent annual inflation) for oil prices and the forecast range of where actual prices may be.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/EIA-WTI-forecast.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/EIA-WTI-forecast.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"556\" height=\"333\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Historical pellet ocean shipping freight rates provide insight into the expected long-term market clearing rates for typical-sized vessels from various pellet export terminals. FutureMetrics does not try to forecast the short- to medium-term drivers of shipping cost volatility.<\/p>\n<p>The methodology of estimating expected future CIF prices involves developing independent forecasts for each of the main components of pellet costs:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Wood costs delivered to the pellet mill<br \/>\n\u2022 Pellet mill conversion costs (excluding wood costs)<br \/>\n\u2022 Pellet producers\u2019 expected margins (using EBITDA per tonne as the model input)<br \/>\n\u2022 Inland transportation from the mill to the port, and port storage and loading costs<br \/>\n\u2022 Shipping<\/p>\n<p>Expected EBITDA\/tonne is based on historical data from the two publicly traded producers (Pinnacle and Enviva \u2013 see table below) and from FutureMetrics data based on due diligence analysis on existing pellet plants.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/EBITDA-table.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31237 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/EBITDA-table.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"985\" height=\"559\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Based on a number of assumptions, the forecasted prices for the next 10 years are shown below.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Vancouver-to-Tokyo-CIF-Chart.jpg\" rel=\"magnific\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31238 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Vancouver-to-Tokyo-CIF-Chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"994\" height=\"596\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4>\u00a0Source: Future Metrics<\/h4>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The price of pellets will be heavily influenced by long-term contracts for wood pellets. In fact, the volatility of the spot market increases because majority of the market is under long-term contract. Since such a large percentage of the market &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/global-wood-pellet-prices-forecast-2020\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58097,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716,4715,4714],"tags":[4130,3283],"class_list":["post-78730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","category-wood-industry-prices","tag-pellet-prices","tag-wood-pellets","topic-industry-prices","topic-wood-energy","area-asia-middle-east","area-europe","area-north-america","area-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Global wood pellet prices-forecast 2020 - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/global-wood-pellet-prices-forecast-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global wood pellet prices-forecast 2020 - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The price of pellets will be heavily influenced by long-term contracts for wood pellets. 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