{"id":78662,"date":"2020-01-17T09:06:58","date_gmt":"2020-01-17T09:06:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/2020-trends-global-lumber-market\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:52:20","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:52:20","slug":"2020-trends-global-lumber-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/2020-trends-global-lumber-market\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 trends in the global lumber market"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

In North America at least, 2019 will be remembered as the hangover from the 2018 first-half price spike that collapsed, leaving many casualties along the way. Various GWMI reports highlighted the sawmill devastation in British Columbia, the dismal global softwood lumber consumption trends in 2018 and 2019, and the emergence of a new low-cost timber supply in central Europe that is quickly changing global markets. All these themes have one thing in common: gaining competitiveness in volatile markets where low-cost suppliers set the market and high-cost producers get wiped out quickly.<\/em><\/p>\n

It is evident that the supply base is changing \u2013 and it\u2019s all about competitiveness. More specifically, the 2019 trends show how delivered log costs can make or break a region. For example, in just two years, from being one of the lowest-cost suppliers in North America, the B.C. Interior has now moved into position as the highest-cost one; conversely, central European mills are close to being the lowest-cost suppliers to North America, a trend that will continue to play out in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

Global lumber trends<\/strong><\/p>\n

World lumber markets peaked in mid-2018 and it has been downhill ever since, with many in the industry wondering how things could have changed so quickly given what appears to be questionable upside ahead for 2020. The simple answer is that global economies and wood products demand all slowed \u2013 and relatively quickly \u2013 creating an oversupplied market with weak commodity prices.<\/p>\n

Prices for U.S. structural lumber in 2019 were relatively low \u2013 low prices were required to curtail the high-cost capacity in order to get rid of the excess lumber supplies that were present all year. Through this it was learned that the higher-cost mills were located in western North America (mainly in the B.C. Interior); this was a stunning result caused by an out-of-control government stumpage formula that does not tie log prices to lumber prices.<\/p>\n

The good news is that the lumber price forecast calls for an increase of about 10 per cent over 2019 levels, but that may not be enough for some high-cost regions to remain operational for the entire year, but at least it will be better.<\/p>\n

All global markets, including the U.S., Canada, most of Europe, Japan, China and much of Asia, were oversupplied throughout 2019, and it will take considerable growth in demand to absorb this incremental capacity in 2020. However, with 3+ billion bf of sawmill capacity cuts in North America in 2019 with over 2+ billion bf in B.C. alone, the supply chain may not be robust enough to handle demand surges. Therefore, price volatility in the first quarter of 2020, or shortly thereafter, may creep into the U.S. market.<\/p>\n

There are always various change factors at work that can lead, either directly or indirectly, to unpredictable swings in lumber supply, demand and\/or prices; this was precisely what happened in 2019 (on the down side), just as it had in 2018 (on the up side). In 2020 some of the same factors will be in place, so expect surprises during the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/h2>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In North America at least, 2019 will be remembered as the hangover from the 2018 first-half price spike that collapsed, leaving many casualties along the way. 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